Geoff Lambert breaks down Players to Fade in Week 4 DraftKings NFL contests.
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Sometimes winning big in Daily Fantasy is not about who you roster, sometimes it is who you don’t roster. There are many different reasons to “fade” a player. Here are a few of the reasons I will use when fading a player from my lineups:
- Bad matchup
- High ownership with an equal or better alternative
- DraftKings price
Here are this week’s fades…
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Quarterback
Blake Bortles (JAC) @ NYJ $5,300
Yes, he had a huge game last week in London, and yes, he has a great matchup with the Jets, but he is still Blake Bortles. He will likely be higher owned than he should be because of last week’s performance plus his fairly inexpensive price, but you cannot expect a repeat performance from him. The last time Bortles threw four TDs in a game was in Week 15 of the 2015 season. This game will likely feature a lot of Leonard Fornette running the ball and not Bortles slinging it all over the field.
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) @ BAL $6,000
Big Ben has made this list again. It’s become a rule for me, Roethlisberger on the road is a hands-off situation. These Steeler/Raven games are always hard-fought, low-scoring affairs and I want no part of Roethlisberger this week. His price, however, has dropped enough that he might be usable in some tournaments, but hands off in your cash and head to head lineups.
Running Back
DeMarco Murray (TEN) @ HOU $6,000
Murray did to the Seahawks what I expected Derrick Henry to do. The rumor was that Henry, not Murray, would get the bulk of the work, but Murray surprised everyone with his dominant performance rushing for 115 yards and a TD. Why am I praising Murray if he is on my fade list, you ask? The Seahawks run defense has not been good this year, both Ty Mongomery and Carlos Hyde also had good games against the Seahawks. The Houston Texans are not the Seahawks. I think there will be a lot of people back on the Murray train after he looked good last week, but this formidable Texans defense will keep Murray in check.
Wide Receiver
Julio Jones (ATL) vs BUF $8,800
The biggest detractor to Jones is his touchdown “upside,” or more accurately, his touchdown “downside.” Jones has yet to find paydirt this year, and that is not a fluke. Jones has only had double-digit touchdowns once in his career — way back in 2012 he had 10, his second year in the league. Through three games, Jones has two red zone targets.
Yes. Two.
To put that in perspective, his teammates TE Austin Hooper and WR Taylor Gabriel also have two and Devonta Freeman, a running back, has three to lead the team.
Stefon Diggs (MIN) vs DET $7,100
Diggs has been a pleasant surprise this year. Even with Case Keenum as his QB the last two games, Diggs is the third leading receiver in the league behind Antonio Brown and his teammate Adam Thielen. Wait, what? Two of the top three receivers in the NFL are Minnesota Vikings? Crazy, right? I couldn’t believe it myself, but I’ll be fading Diggs this week nonetheless.
The Detriot Lions pass defense is one of the better units in the league. They currently rank 11th in terms of yards given up through the air, but they have also faced three of the most pass-heavy teams in the league the first three weeks in the Cardinals, Giants, and Falcons. They are also second in interceptions with seven – only the Ravens have more (8). Case Keenum is expected to get the start again and I expect the gameplan to be “feed Dalvin Cook.” That was what the Falcons did to the Lions last week, continually handing the ball to Devonta Freeman who had a season-high 21 carries and 105 yards. Fade Diggs.
Tight End
Zach Ertz (PHI) @ LAC $6,300
Ertz has been a beast over the first three games with 21 catches on 28 targets, 245 yards and one TD. He has been so good, that DraftKings priced him only $300 less than Rob Gronkowski. I’m fading Ertz this week for two reasons.
One, he is priced way too high for me. I have a hard time paying up for Gronkowski on any given week, there is no way I’m paying up for Ertz —especially when I can have Gronk for only $300 more.
Two, the Chargers are a stingy defense against the tight end position. Here are the stat lines of the four tight ends they have faced over the first three games.
- 3 receptions 34 yards 0 TDs
- 1 receptions 44 yards 0 TDs
- 3 receptions 25 yards 0 TDs
- 1 reception 1 yard 0 TDs
You add all that together and they have given up 8 receptions for 108 yards and no touchdowns. You might be thinking, “But have they faced any good tight ends?” That last one up there, the one catch for one yard, that was Travis Kelce. Fade Ertz.
Defense
Patriots vs (CAR) $3,400
The Panthers — Cam Newton in particular — have looked terrible on offense. They weren’t even that good against the lowly Saints last week, in Carolina no less. A lot of people will be on the Patriots for this reason. However, the Patriots don’t make for a good fantasy defense. First off, they are last in yards allowed per game (461), last in points allowed per game (31.7), and last in yards per play (7.1). They are in the bottom third of the league in sacks and interceptions. And finally, the Patriots will likely blow the Panthers out, leaving junk time for the Panthers to rack up stats that could hurt your fantasy score.
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