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Week 1 Sleeper Starts & Busts (Fantasy Football)

Week 1 Sleeper Starts & Busts (Fantasy Football)

It felt like an eternity during the last few months, but like anything that’s good, time has suddenly flown by and we now have the first week of the 2017 NFL season upon us. After an entire offseason of research, or for some of you, an entire few hours of cramming right before your draft, new obstacles are now in front of us.

Each week you’ll be faced with tough lineup decisions, but we’ll be asking the experts for some additional advice to help you out. Below, you’ll find who the experts feel have sleeper potential this week as well as which higher ranked players could be busts.

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Q1. Give us a player outside of our top 100 Flex that represents a deep sleeper start and tell us why you think he has upside this week.

Paul Richardson (WR – SEA)
“Richardson is a player who should be considered as a last-minute replacement for guys like Mike Evans and Jarvis Landry, as he offers you plenty of potential in a matchup against the Packers. Their secondary allowed 26 touchdowns to wide receivers alone last year, which led the NFL (next highest was at 21). They were so desperate, they went out and signed Davon House, a cornerback who was benched by Jacksonville last year. Richardson is available on like 95 percent of waiver wires. Even if you don’t use him this week, he’s an excellent stash.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Paul Richardson is a guy I’d be willing to throw into a WR3 or flex spot. He should operate as Seattle’s #2 WR with Tyler Lockett still rounding into form. And he’s playing in a game with shootout potential against a Packers defense that allowed THE most fantasy points to WRs last year. ”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks)

“Keep your eye on Seattle WR Paul Richardson. I expect the Sea/GB game to be high scoring and Richardson will get his chances. Russell Wilson also knows how good he can be–remember last year’s playoffs?”
– Dr. Roto (ScoutFantasy)

Coby Fleener (TE – NO)
“Coby Fleener, that’s right I said it. Fleener could surprise people this opening weekend. Willie Snead is going to have a seat for three weeks, and beat reporters have already pegged Fleener to see an uptick in targets during those games. Add that info to the fact we saw this happen last year. In Week 3’s matchup against the Falcons, a Willie Snead-less team saw Coby Fleener drop 7/109/1. Granted, the Vikings defense is a lot tougher than Atlanta’s and it’s road Drew Brees, but Fleener has a chance this week.”
– Mike Wright (The Fantasy Footballers)

Kendall Wright (WR – CHI)
“With Cameron Meredith out of the picture due to injury, I look for Kendall Wright and Kevin White to pick up the slack in the passing game this season. Wright is reunited with Dowell Loggains, who he was coached by in 2013 while with the Titans, which subsequently was easily his best year as a professional. There’s nothing to worry about matchup-wise this week, so I look for Wright to exceed expectations in Week 1.”
– Adam Sutton (DraftStars)

Chris Conley (WR – KC)
“Conley is extremely deep and should be available in virtually every league. The Patriots are known to lock down the opponent’s best player, which in this case is Tyreek Hill, yet the Chiefs are still forecasted to score two or three TDs with Alex Smith passing more than usual in the negative game script. Conley will be starting and taking 70+% of the snaps and looked terrific in the preseason so if you need an upside flyer, he could post a breakout performance this week.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Wendell Smallwood (RB – PHI)
“Smallwood is going to be involved in the Eagles running game in 2017, but how much is the question. LaGarrette Blount has looked slow and isn’t a great fit into the Eagles scheme and Smallwood should get plenty of opportunity in week 1. Smallwood should get a chance for 10 plus rushes and a few grabs, making a 10 point floor possible in a PPR.”
– Ken Zalis (Pressbox)

Q2. On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 Flex is likely to disappoint fantasy owners this week?

DeAndre Hopkins (WR – HOU)
“Hopkins opens the season against a Jaguars defense that allowed the 6th fewest PPR points to WRs a year ago — and then added CB A.J. Bouye to pair with CB Jalen Ramsey. Expect a run-heavy attack from the Texans, who are at home, favored by 5 points and starting Tom Savage at QB.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks)

DeAndre Hopkins was the #37 wide receiver last season despite playing all 16 games. He finished behind Brandon LaFell, Kenny Stills and 10 starts of Adam Thielen, so the notion that he will suddenly become a top 15 wide receiver again with Tom Savage under center is absurd. Add in the fact that Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye and Barry Church are roaming around Jacksonville’s terrific secondary and it should be quite a bit worse this week.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Leonard Fournette (RB – JAC)
“Fournette could find himself with a rough opening day for fantasy football. He’s been dealing with a mysterious foot injury and now starts his pro career against an elite Texans defense with a healthy J.J. Watt. The Jags v. Houston could be a clinic of offensive ineptitude. Even Vegas has over/under set at 39.5 points as of writing this. It’s gonna take a PI call in the endzone for Fournette to make a fantasy impact this week.”
– Mike Wright (The Fantasy Footballers)

“I like Leonard Fournette a lot, but the Texans are playing for an entire city that needs them to be good right now. Fournette said the NFL game felt “easy.” After Watt and Clowney stop him a few times on first down, it won’t seem easy at all.”
– Dr. Roto (ScoutFantasy)

Marshawn Lynch (RB – OAK)
“Lynch settled with an ADP in the middle to late third round this season, which was somewhat justified given the offense that he was joining. However, the 31-year-old hasn’t played since the 2015 season, when he averaged 3.8 yards per attempt. I agree with the notion that Oakland has a strong offensive line, but Thomas Rawls (5.6 YPA) and Christine Michael (4.9 YPA) fared just fine behind Seattle’s line that season , while Lynch struggled. Defense versus position starts aren’t very trustworthy this early in the season as we are using last year’s numbers, but the Titans were tough against opposing running backs. I think owners will not only be disappointed in Lynch this week, but probably more often than not all season long.”
– Adam Sutton (DraftStars)

Marshawn Lynch could find some early trouble in week one vs. a Titans defense that only allowed 88 yards per game in 2016. Add in the year layoff and Washington and Richard getting touches and it could be a slow start for Beastmode in his NFL return.”
– Ken Zalis (Pressbox)

Dez Bryant (WR – DAL)
“If you own Bryant, you have to play him, but that doesn’t mean you should be excited by it this week. He’ll match up with Janoris Jenkins, the cornerback who held him to just two catches for 18 yards last year… in two games! Bryant actually finished with negative fantasy points in the two games combined due to a lost fumble. Bryant is the type of player who can score at any time, but if you wind up with 50 yards and a touchdown, consider yourself lucky. ”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Thank you to the experts for naming their sleeper starts and sits. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter if you’re not already doing so and check out our latest podcast below for more great advice.


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