Last week, I began a weekly article that should help us dream on Week 2’s upcoming games, but is also drawn from the countless statistics I’ve been researching all week. I’ll take a stab at 8 bold predictions, which I define as a take that the general public would give 10:1 odds. Each of these scenarios is entirely plausible, and in fact, we came close to getting 6 correct in Week 1. I nailed the Rams scoring 30+ and was quite close with Dez Bryant’s major down week, Jacksonville coming within one phantom roughing the passer call of the shutout, Terrance West finishing with 80+ yards and both Zach Ertz and Paul Richardson having big games. Here is what I have pegged for this week.
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#8 Ty Montgomery is a top 3 RB this week
There were question marks about whether the Packers could trust Montgomery as a true workhorse running back and a lot of it depended on pass blocking. He passed the test with flying colors last week and was rewarded with 23 touches which was good for 5th most in football. This week, the Packers and Falcons have a 53.5 over/under so there should be touchdowns up for grabs and seeing that Montgomery should be in line for another 20+ touches, he could have a huge game.
Final Prediction: 21 rushes, 99 yards, 5 receptions, 52 yards, 1 TD
#7 DeSean Jackson is a top 10 WR this week
We haven’t seen D-Jax with his new offense yet, but if there is one thing we know, it is that his new QB has a bigger arm than Kirk Cousins. This bodes well for Jackson, who makes his money down the field. In fact, the defensive opponent lines up well for Jackson too, as the Bears have been known to slow down #1 receivers, but allow WR2s to get their work in. Last season, he finished the year with 4 games of 100+ yards in his last 6 including one at Chicago for 114.
Final Prediction: 4 receptions, 109 yards, 1 TD
#6 Gronk outscores all WRs this week
It isn’t that New Orleans is particularly bad against tight ends, but rather that Rob Gronkowski hardly qualifies as a human being, let alone a tight end. The Patriots have an implied 31 point total from Vegas this week against a Saints secondary that looked helpless in Week 1. New England is now missing Malcolm Mitchell, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, so there should be targets galore for the best tight end in NFL history in this shootout of a game.
Final Prediction: 7 receptions, 112 yards, 2 TDs
#5 Thomas Rawls is a top 10 RB this week
Last week, Lacy and Rawls were supposed to split work, but the Seahawks held Rawls out to get him to 100%. This week, he is “rearing and ready to go” according to Pete Carroll so with Eddie Lacy having struggled, Rawls could be in line for a hefty load of carries, especially on the goal-line. They play the worst run defense from last season in the 49ers so there is significant upside here for Rawls.
Final Prediction: 13 carries, 64 yards, 2 TD
#4 Trevor Siemian is a top 5 QB this week
There is no doubt about it that this Cowboys defense smashed the Giants last week, but Eli Manning was abysmal, as he sometimes is. We know this Dallas secondary needs significant work and they struggled all of last season. Siemian, meanwhile, was a top 5 fantasy QB last week and also had two similar games in 13 starts last season. Having Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders helps, but Siemian is also just a streaky player.
Final Prediction: 296 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
#3 Bell, Zeke, Gordon and McCoy all finish outside the top 5 RBs this week
Each of these players has significant question marks heading into the week: Le’Veon Bell is coming off a lackluster performance in his season warm-up against the Browns last week and draws the Vikings this time around. Zeke was solid, and the Broncos run defense was merely mediocre last season, but they made some upgrades and held Melvin Gordon to just 54 yards total after a big first quarter last week. Gordon, like Bell, goes up against a top 5 run defense with Suh waiting for him on the other side, and LeSean McCoy’s Bills travel to Carolina where Luke Keuchley and one of the best run defenses awaits. Sure, they are all locked in for major touches, but it takes touchdowns and/or significant yards to finish top 5, and bear in mind that the foursome was just 0.3 points away from accomplishing the “feat” last week.
#2 Jarvis Landry is a top 10 WR this week
Jay Cutler is built to throw the ball to a big fast weapon like DeVante Parker, and he has spent much of the pre-season praising him, but this game is laid out quite well for Landry to excel. Jason Verrett is among the best shadowing cornerbacks in football and should be on Parker for most of the game since he doesn’t move into the slot. Then, there is the fact that Ingram and Bosa will be putting all kinds of pressure on Cutler considering the Dolphins poor pass blocking. He should find Landry open for a number of drop offs, and if he breaks a bigger play for a touchdown, we could be talking about a great week from the seemingly forgotten man.
Final Prediction: 8 receptions for 71 yards and a TD
#1 The Cardinals produce two top 20 RBs this week
David Johnson didn’t just get injured last week, but he was among the handful of least efficient running backs in the NFL before he did. Credit is due, however, to the Lions run defense, which was strong last season. We know Arizona to have a strong running game and should see that on display this week against a Colts team that allowed 46 points to the Rams in Week 1. While Kerwynn Williams is said to be the #1, Bruce Arians also made it clear that it would be a dual backfield. Andre Ellington has big play ability on third downs and if Williams gets enough work and pounds one past the goal-line, the pair could accomplish the task.
Final Prediction: Ellington: 6 carries, 21 yards, 3 receptions, 80 yards, Williams: 15 carries, 64 yards, 1 TD
**Bonus Super Duper Bold Prediction: Nick Boyle is a top 3 TE this week
Thanks for reading and happy football season!
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