Week 4 was one of those inevitable injury-filled NFL weeks that saw devastating season-enders to Dalvin Cook and Chris Carson, along with injuries to big names like Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Ty Montgomery and Davante Adams, among others. It’s that constant reminder that real football — much like our silly little game — is as much a battle of attrition as anything else. But let’s pick up the pieces and see what we’ve learned with a quarter of the season in the books (already!).
In this space, we’ll journey through some Interesting Tidbits every week to help you with your upcoming lineup decisions. This can include notable recent performances, changes in playing time, historical matchup trends, and so on. At the very least, maybe we’ll uncover some amusing factoids along the way! So without further ado, let’s see what’s on tap for Week 5 and beyond.
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The New England Patriots defense is allowing 456.8 yards per game
Move over New Orleans Saints defense, we have a new sheriff in town — and no, that’s not a compliment. The New England Patriots defense has been horrendous by every statistical measure, and now has a big fantasy bullseye on them. They’ve allowed a 300-yard passer in every game, including resuscitating Cam Newton back from the abyss in Week 4. They rank dead last in DVOA, and have given up 32 points per game. It’s hard to imagine a Bill Belichick team toting out this poor a defense the entire season, but until they prove otherwise, fire up all your fantasy assets against them. Next up is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who should be in for a big Thursday night. On the flip side, this also means that Tom Brady and the Pats passing game will continue to put up huge numbers if they end up in shootouts every week.
Mike Gillislee is averaging just 12 touches the past two weeks with zero touchdowns
The poor defense may have the Patriots passing game churning out fantasy points, but the game scripts of the past couple weeks have put Mike Gillislee at a disadvantage. We always knew Gillislee would be a touchdown-dependent asset like LaGarrette Blount was last season, but it was assumed the 2017 Patriots would be milking away the clock with big leads more often than not, with Gillislee leading the charge. Instead, the Patriots have had no such luxury lately, being forced to sling it to keep up with the Texans and Panthers, limiting Gillislee’s usage. He’s yet to see a single target this year, and has only been on the field for 32% of the snaps. The good news is he still leads the team with 16 red zone looks, so the touchdowns will return. However, with no involvement in the passing game, and the Patriots playing catch-up more than anticipated, he’s going to be a far more volatile fantasy running back than hoped. You’re probably still using him on Thursday, but it doesn’t get any easier against Tampa Bay, who is third in DVOA against the run, and is allowing just 65.3 rushing yards per game to running backs.
Deshaun Watson is the QB5 through four weeks
Although Jared Goff has certainly been a pleasant surprise himself so far this season, it’s Deshaun Watson who’s quickly climbing the quarterback fantasy rankings, and it’s all the more impressive considering he didn’t even start in Week 1. He’s benefited from a pair of cupcake matchups against the Patriots and Titans, but when you throw for a combined 584 yards and six touchdowns, plus an additional 65 yards and a touchdown on the ground, you’re clearly doing something right. He gets a tougher test at home against the Kansas City Chiefs this week, but that shouldn’t scare you off of using him. The addition of Will Fuller adds another weapon to his arsenal that he didn’t have until last week, and he leads all quarterbacks with 148 rushing yards, boosting his floor even if he suffers a letdown game.
The Seattle Seahawks backfield shuffle continues, and none of us are winners
Thomas Rawls logged one measly snap in Week 3, and wasn’t even active in Week 4. Eddie Lacy was inactive in Week 2, and then logged zero snaps off the bench in Week 3. And yet, with Chris Carson out for the season, we have these two back in our fantasy lives (yay?). Although Lacy was the one who was active in Week 4, and got 11 carries for 52 yards with Carson out, it’s Rawls who coach Pete Carroll has been talking up this week. Both should get touches, but the truth is we have no idea how this backfield is going to be divided up, particularly when you throw C.J. Prosise and J.D. McKissic into the mix as well. Seattle gets a nice matchup in Week 5 against the Los Angeles Rams, but Rawls and Lacy are shaky flex plays at best. Maybe one back emerges from this situation, but it’s just as likely that this is a backfield headache moving forward.
Jaron Brown is averaging 9.7 targets per game over the last three weeks
No, it’s not the Arizona Cardinals Brown we thought we would be talking about to this point, but after receiving zero looks in Week 1, Jaron Brown is averaging just under 10 targets a game over the past three weeks. Even more encouraging is he’s seen 95% of the snaps the last two weeks, and only one snap fewer than Larry Fitzgerald. While it’s fair to wonder if John Brown will cut into Jaron’s snaps over the long haul, at the very least, a matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles should keep both Browns going in Week 5. The Eagles have allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers, and perimeter wide receivers have been carving up cornerback Jalen Mills in particular all season. Pay attention to how the snaps and targets shake out this week, but right now Jaron has the look of a high-floor fantasy wide receiver.
The Cleveland Browns wide receiving corp is a wasteland
I’ve touched on the Cleveland wide receiver situation the past two weeks with the hopes that someone, anyone, emerges, but it looks like that topic is going dormant for the foreseeable future. After a one week mini-resurgence, Kenny Britt reverted back to his disinterested play against the Cincinnati Bengals, and coach Hue Jackson indicated he would’ve benched him if it wasn’t for injuries to other players. Meanwhile, Rashard Higgins didn’t reappear either, producing a bagel on 4 targets. Rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer threw for just 118 yards, and completed under 50% of his passes for the third straight week. Kizer should have his moments in some weeks because of his legs, but otherwise this looks like a passing game to avoid. And no, Josh Gordon doesn’t look like he’s walking through that door either.
Chris Thompson comes back down to Earth and totals just 27 yards in Week 4
Washington is on bye this week, but we finally saw what was bound to happen eventually — a bad game out of Chris Thompson. Coach Jay Gruden stuck to his word that he wasn’t going in increase Thompson’s touches, and sure enough, he only rushed 6 times for 23 yards, and caught 1-of-2 targets for four yards. While the lack of targets was surprising — he had 19 over the previous three games — overall, this shows the basement level floor that Thompson has with this kind of volume. He likely has future spike weeks on the way, but just know going in that this is the downside you’ll have to live with when he doesn’t break one.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.