Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week. The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another. Have you ever wondered what stats you should review to understand how productive certain players can truly be?
What impact would that have on your fantasy football team? In essence that is the goal of this column. This article will provide you a line of sight regarding noteworthy stats and trends you should be aware of to dominate your league.
Past performance is not indicative of future production in fantasy football, but it can provide you a line of sight of what stats to pay attention to. This week we will focus on the quarterback, wide receiver, and running back position.
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WHAT HAPPENED AT THE QB POSITION?
Did you know that Carson Palmer (357), Philip Rivers (347), Jameis Winston (332), Cam Newton (316), and Tom Brady (307) were the only QBs to throw for 300 or more passing yards? Deshaun Watson, Andy Dalton, and Aaron Rodgers all threw four passing touchdowns. Dalton finished the week with a QBR of 146.
DESHAUN WATSON EXPLOITED THE TITANS DEFENSE
Deshaun Watson is the 3rd rookie QB with 3 pass TD & 1 rush TD in a game in the last 15 seasons (Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota). pic.twitter.com/eWtCfiuU14
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 1, 2017
Watson’s passing and rushing ability provide him weekly upside that few fantasy quarterbacks can offer. His performance that resulted in a 73.5 completion percentage, 283 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, one interception, 24 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdowns helped fantasy football players dominate their weekly matchup. Watson’s averaged 28.5 pass attempts, 202.8 passing yards, and 37 rushing yards per game up to this point of the NFL season. He can be viewed as a low-end QB1 each and every week moving forward.
Deshaun Watson was stellar in the Texans win on Sundayhttps://t.co/gpXftK7eMw pic.twitter.com/zgaW0RfqTs
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) October 2, 2017
The Titans continue to get eviscerated by opposing QBs. Through four games this defense allows an average of 23.9 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
THE TOP-10 QUARTERBACKS
Pass attempts and passing yards per game are very predictive when evaluating the QB position. Here is a line of sight of how the top-10 fantasy QBs have performed on a per game basis so far this season.
| Player | Pass Attempts | Passing Yards | Passing TDs | Rushing TDs |
| Aaron Rodgers | 40 | 286.5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 38.75 | 349.8 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 38 | 283.8 | 2 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 36.75 | 264.5 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 35.75 | 235.2 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Russell Wilson | 35.25 | 256 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| Alex Smith | 30.25 | 266.8 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Kirk Cousins | 30.25 | 251 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 29.5 | 269.2 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 28.5 | 202.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
WHAT HAPPENED AT THE WR POSITION?
Odell Beckham led all WRs with 15 targets. Did you know that 12 WRs were targeted 10 or more times in Week 4? DeAndre Hopkins (10) was the only WR with double-digit receptions. Keenan Allen (138), Tyrell Williams (115), Hopkins (107), Jaron Brown (105), and Kelvin Benjamin (104) were the only WRs with 100 or more receiving yards. Jordy Nelson (2), Will Fuller (2), and Devin Funchess (2) were the only WRs to score more multiple touchdowns.
DEANDRE HOPKINS IS CURRENTLY ON PACE FOR 120+ CATCHES
DeAndre Hopkins led all WRs in overall grade this week pic.twitter.com/FoEIQDAL6p
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) October 3, 2017
Hopkins caught 83 percent of his 12 targets for 107 receiving yards and a touchdown. He is currently leading all WRs with 49 targets through four games. Hopkins has averaged nine targets, 5.1 receptions, and 70.4 receiving yards per game in 68 career games since his rookie season back in 2013. He can be viewed as a weekly WR1 due to his elite target volume.
THE TOP-14 WIDE RECEIVERS ACCORDING TO DYAR THROUGH WEEK 4
The Football Outsiders metrics DVOA or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement and DVOA or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average are useful when evaluating a player’s statistical body of work. DYAR means a WR with more overall value. DVOA means a WR with more value per play.
| Player | Rank | DYAR | DVOA | Rank |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 154 | 46.70% | 3 |
| Jordy Nelson | 2 | 117 | 41.10% | 5 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 112 | 68.50% | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 103 | 17.00% | 18 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 100 | 37.50% | 6 |
| Cooper Kupp | 6 | 98 | 42.80% | 4 |
| Michael Crabtree | 7 | 95 | 57.50% | 2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8 | 94 | 9.30% | 28 |
| Michael Thomas | 9 | 87 | 16.50% | 20 |
| Adam Thielen | 10 | 80 | 19.10% | 15 |
| Julio Jones | 11 | 78 | 20.40% | 14 |
| Antonio Brown | 12 | 72 | 7.80% | 29 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 13 | 72 | 14.70% | 22 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 14 | 69 | 31.00% | 8 |
WHAT HAPPENED AT THE RB POSITION?
Le’Veon Bell led all RBs with 35 rushing attempts. Nine RBs had 20 or more rushing attempts. Bilal Powell (163), Bell (144), LeGarrette Blount (136), Todd Gurley (121) and Kareem Hunt (101) were the only RBs to generate 100 or more rushing yards. Bell was the only one who scored two rushing touchdowns. Andre Ellington (14), James White (12), Alvin Kamara (10), and Duke Johnson (10) were the only RBs to see double-digit targets. Kamara and White were the only ones with double-digit receptions. Eight RBs scored receiving touchdowns.
LAMAR MILLER FINALLY SEPARATES HIMSELF FROM D’ONTA FOREMAN
Welcome to the end zone, @millertime_6!#MillerTime #WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/cC6xyB0lnF
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) October 1, 2017
Miller had 23 touches, generated 131 total yards, and scored a touchdown against a Titans defense that has now given an average of 20.3 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. He is still considered the Texans lead back, but D’Onta Foreman has averaged 11.7 touches per game over his last three. It remains to be seen how the Texans backfield will pan out for the rest of the season. This presents savvy fantasy football players an opportunity to sell high on Miller and buy low on Foreman. Miller can continue to be deployed in starting lineups as an RB2.
A STATISTICAL BREAKDOWN OF THE TOP-10 PPR FANTASY RUNNING BACKS
| Player | Att | RuYds | RuTD | Targets | Rec | ReYds | ReTD | PPR FP |
| Le’Veon Bell | 35 | 144 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 34.6 |
| Todd Gurley | 23 | 121 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 94 | 1 | 34.5 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 21 | 85 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 54 | 1 | 29.9 |
| Lamar Miller | 19 | 75 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 56 | 1 | 29.1 |
| Bilal Powell | 21 | 163 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 29 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 25 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 71 | 1 | 25.6 |
| Leonard Fournette | 24 | 86 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 59 | 1 | 24.5 |
| Elijah McGuire | 10 | 93 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 | 21.1 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 47 | 0 | 21 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 20 | 94 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 19.9 |
BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER
You may be thinking what prompted me to highlight only players from the Texans.
.@HoustonTexans 54 points scored today are the most in a NFL game since the Packers scored 55 points in Week 10, 2014 vs Bears
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) October 1, 2017
This game was a fantasy point jackpot for those fortunate enough to have Watson, Hopkins, Miller or Will Fuller in their starting lineups.
WHAT COMES NEXT?
The purpose of this column is to make you a more informed fantasy player and put you in the best possible position to harness this intellectual capital into a league-winning team. What statistics stood out to you? Please leave a comment below or reach out to me on Twitter.
You can find me @EricNMoody, and I am always open to answering questions or discussing football. Please be on the lookout for this column every Wednesday during the regular season. Until next time!
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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.
