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By The Numbers: Week 7 (Fantasy Football)

By The Numbers: Week 7 (Fantasy Football)

Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week. The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another. Have you ever wondered what stats you should review to understand how productive certain players can truly be?

What impact would that have on your fantasy football team? In essence that is the goal of this column. This article will provide you a line of sight regarding noteworthy stats and trends you should be aware of to dominate your league.

Past performance is not indicative of future production in fantasy football, but it can provide you a line of sight of what stats to pay attention to. This week we will focus on the running back position.

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WHAT HAPPENED AT THE RB POSITION?

Did you know that Jordan Howard (36) and Le’Veon Bell (32) had 30 or more rushing attempts? Nine RBs had 20 touches or more. Bell (179) and Howard (167) also led all RBs in rushing yards. Nine RBs had 100 or more rushing yards. Adrian Peterson, Carlos Hyde, and Mark Ingram all scored two rushing touchdowns in a week where 12 total RBs scored on the ground. Christian McCaffrey (14), Melvin Gordon (12), and Chris Ivory (10) led the way in targets at the RB position. McCaffrey (10) was the only RB with double-digit receptions. Chris Thompson led all RBs in receiving yards with 105. McCaffrey (56), Matt Forte (59), Gordon (67), Ivory (74), Devontae Booker (78), Kareem Hunt (89), and Thompson were the only RBs with 50 or more receiving yards. Gordon, Ivory, McCaffrey, Jerick McKinnon, and Samaje Perine were the only RBs to score a receiving touchdown in Week 7.

ADRIAN PETERSON HAS PLENTY OF GASOLINE LEFT IN THE TANK

Did you know that Peterson played 78 percent of the offensive snaps in his first game with the Cardinals? He played 48 snaps and had a rushing attempt on 54 percent of them. Peterson only played 44 snaps in his short tenure with the New Orleans Saints. He finished the game with 26 rushing attempts, 134 rushing yards, and two touchdowns. This was Peterson’s first 100-yard game since Week 16 of the 2015 NFL season.

Peterson currently has the eighth highest DVOA or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average according to Football Outsiders. This metric illustrates an RB with more value per play. Peterson has the talent to transcend the Cardinals below average offensive line that is currently ranked 23rd in Adjusted-Line Yards and 30th in Open Field Yards according to Football Outsiders.

Team Adj. Line Yards ALY Rank Open Field Yards OF Rank
NE 4.92 1 0.3 29
NO 4.8 2 0.84 13
GB 4.78 3 0.22 31
LARM 4.73 4 0.47 25
ATL 4.68 5 1.21 5
TEN 4.68 6 1.25 4
TB 4.5 7 0.67 18
KC 4.45 8 2.06 1
BAL 4.38 9 0.99 9
DEN 4.34 10 0.94 10
SF 4.29 11 0.9 11
JAC 4.28 12 1.36 2
PIT 4.2 13 0.61 21
DAL 4.16 14 1.02 7
HOU 4.14 15 0.5 23
PHI 4.1 16 1.05 6
WAS 4.05 17 0.63 20
CLE 4.04 18 0.49 24
OAK 4.03 19 0.57 22
CHI 3.91 20 1 8
MIN 3.89 21 0.85 12
NYG 3.86 22 0.84 14
ARI 3.73 23 0.27 30
MIA 3.73 24 0.44 27
BUF 3.7 25 0.44 26

 
According to the website, a team with a high ranking in ALY but a low ranking in OFY is heavily dependent on its offensive line to make the running game work. A team with a low ranking in ALY but a high ranking in OFY is heavily dependent on its running back breaking long runs to make the running game work. Peterson can be viewed an upside RB2 in Week 7 against the Rams. If you are rostering him I would consider selling high. Peterson’s performance last week, his name recognition, and overall statistical body of work could be intoxicating to other players in your fantasy football league.

DERRICK HENRY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LEAGUE WINNER

Henry’s fantasy stock continues to rise after he set career highs on Monday Night Football. He had 19 rushing attempts for 131 rushing yards and scored a rushing touchdown with 55 percent of his rushing yards coming from one attempt. Henry is averaging 53 rushing yards per game through six games while DeMarco Murray is averaging 52. Murray is averaging 11.3 rushing attempts per game while Henry is averaging 10.3. Murray is averaging 2.8 targets, 2.3 receptions, and 14.3 receiving yards per game. Henry is more efficient with his touches currently ranked fourth in DVOA according to Football Outsiders. The only RBs ahead of him in that metric are Devonta Freeman, Bell, and Hunt.

Murray is currently dealing with a hamstring injury that has been nagging him since training camp. One of his strengths throughout his career is the ability to play effectively with nagging injuries. He will not go quietly into the night and give Henry the spotlight. Murray had 12 rushing attempts, 40 rushing yards, and a rushing touchdown. He was very active in the passing game with four targets, four receptions, and 47 receiving yards with 68 percent of them coming after the catch. Murray forced two missed tackled and gained 33 yards after contact according to Pro Football Focus. Henry is the better player, but Murray has been productive and is not going away anytime soon. The Titans have a very favorable schedule the rest of the way against defenses who allow a high number of fantasy points to RBs. Murray is an excellent player to buy low on and stash on your bench if you have space and your team is trending toward the fantasy playoffs.

QUICK HITS

LE’VEON BELL IS BACK TO FORM

Did you know that Bell and Antonio Brown have accounted for over 70 percent of the Steelers offensive touches this season according to Pro Football Reference? Bell remains an elite RB1 and has a very favorable schedule from now through the fantasy playoffs with matchups against the Bengals, Lions, Colts, Titans, and Packers. All of these team defenses are allowing a high number of fantasy points per game to RBs.

KAREEM HUNT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE TOTAL YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE

Hunt is the only player in the Super Bowl era to begin his career with six straight games with 100 or more yards from scrimmage according to Pro Football Reference. He is averaging 23.9 fantasy points per game this season and is currently the RB1 in PPR formats.

LEONARD FOURNETTE LEADS ALL RUNNING BACKS IN RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS

Only Bell (134) has more rushing attempts than Fournette (130) through six games. The only RB with more rushing yards than Fournette (596) is Hunt (630). He has not been used extensively as a receiver out of the backfield so far this season with only 20 targets, 15 receptions, and 136 receiving yards. Fournette is averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game in PPR formats and is thriving in the Jaguars run-heavy offensive scheme. He has very favorable upcoming matchups in the near future against the Colts, Bengals, Chargers, and Browns. Fournette remains an elite RB1.

WHAT COMES NEXT?

The purpose of this column is to make you a more informed fantasy player and put you in the best possible position to harness this intellectual capital into a league-winning team. What statistics stood out to you? Please leave a comment below or reach out to me on Twitter.

You can find me @EricNMoody, and I am always open to answering questions or discussing football. Please be on the lookout for this column every Wednesday during the regular season. Until next time!


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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.

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