Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week. The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another. Have you ever wondered what stats you should review to understand how productive certain players can truly be?
What impact would that have on your fantasy football team? In essence that is the goal of this column. This article will provide you a line of sight regarding noteworthy stats and trends you should be aware of to dominate your league.
Past performance is not indicative of future production in fantasy football, but it can provide you a line of sight of what stats to pay attention to. This week we will focus on the wide receiver and quarterback position.
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WHAT HAPPENED AT THE WR POSITION?
This was a week in which 11 wide receivers saw double-digit targets led by Amari Cooper with 19 who also happened to be the only WR to have double-digit receptions with 10. He and Kenny Stills were the only WRs to score more than one touchdown. Eight WRs scored 20 or more fantasy points in PPR formats.
AMARI COOPER FINALLY BREAKS OUT
Amari Cooper led all WRs in Week 7 with 19 targets and also in air yards with 259. @RotoViz #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/rDOLN5HKd3
— Moody (@EricNMoody) October 24, 2017
Cooper’s epic performance against the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football helped fantasy players win their Week 8 matchup. ESPN Stats and Info mentioned he is the 1st Raiders player with 200 receiving yards in a game since Art Powell in 1965 against the Boston Patriots. Cooper set a new career high in receiving yards, but only caught 58 percent of his targets.
#Raiders moved Amari Cooper around formation to get him going vs KC, lining him in slot on 35% of routes. Was in slot 15% of time Week 1-6.
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) October 20, 2017
Those who bought low on him were rewarded, but ask yourself can he be trusted in lineups moving forward? You can either embrace the weekly volatility or sell high. It is easy to get intoxicated with a player as a result of this type of performance but take a step back. What if you could parlay Cooper and another asset into Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, or A.J. Green?
DOUG BALDWIN GETS BACK ON TRACK
Doug Baldwin was the highest graded WR in the NFL in week 7 pic.twitter.com/fxjbJF13y2
— PFF SEA Seahawks (@PFF_Seattle) October 24, 2017
Doug Baldwin finished Week 7 against the New York Giants with 12 targets, nine receptions, 92 receiving yards, and a touchdown. This is the type of performance that fantasy owners have been waiting for from him after the following weekly PPR finishes WR39, WR39, WR9, WR65, WR48, and in Week 6 as the WR5. Since 2014 Baldwin has averaged seven targets, 5.1 receptions, 62.9 receiving yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game over his last 54 games.
Doug Baldwin is back! Beautiful chart. So many alignments…one of my favorite players to watch. pic.twitter.com/IW7808PSiP
— Curtis Patrick (@CPatrickNFL) October 23, 2017
Baldwin can be viewed as a high-end WR2 at home against the Houston Texans this week.
WR QUICK HITS
Air yards allow us to better understand how a WR is used by his team and how he produces his receiving yards. It is essentially the total distance that a football is thrown beyond the line of scrimmage to the point of reception. Cooper led all WRs in Week 7 with 259 air yards followed by Baldwin with 187.
Thru last night, Antonio Brown leads the NFL with 1131 air yards. Next closest? DeSean Jackson with 821.
— Josh ADHD (@FantasyADHD) October 23, 2017
New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas owned a 29 percent target share and generated 162 air yards. Brown dominated with a 40 percent target share and 159 air yards. Zay Jones had the opportunity of a lifetime with 127 air yards, but only managed to catch 22 percent of his nine targets.
WHAT HAPPENED AT THE QB POSITION?
Derek Carr led all quarterbacks with 52 pass attempts and was the only one to throw for 400 or more passing yards. Six other QBs throw for 300 or more passing yards. Carson Wentz was the only QB to throw four touchdowns, but seven others threw for three. Dak Prescott led the position in QB rating with 134. Cam Newton had the most rushing attempts in Week 7 among all QBs with nine.
CARSON WENTZ IS AN ELITE QB1
Carson Wentz is on pace for 4,233 passing yards, 38 TDs, 9 INTs. Here’s a list of guys who’ve done that: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan
— Reuben Frank (@RoobNBCS) October 24, 2017
Did you know Wentz is generating 0.56 fantasy point per touch up to this point of the season? He leads the league in touchdown passes with 17. The only quarterback with more fantasy points than Wentz is Kansas City Chiefs starter, Alex Smith. He became the second player in franchise history with his at least three passing touchdowns in three straight games according to ESPN Stats & Information. The most recent Eagle to accomplish that was Bobby Thomason in 1953.
Carson Wentz's TD to Mack Hollins traveled 62.8 yards of raw distance in the air, the longest of any over the last two seasons #NextGenStats pic.twitter.com/BmIgGb2KGI
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 24, 2017
Wentz’s hot streak should continue against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 8. This defensive unit is allowing the second most fantasy points per game (20.8) to quarterbacks. The only unit allowing more is the New England Patriots (23.2).
DAK PRESCOTT SOLIDIFIES HIS STATUS AS A QB1
Dak Prescott has his 7th career game with a Passing TD & Rushing TD.
That's as many as Troy Aikman had during his entire Cowboys career. pic.twitter.com/qOa5N2qhCc
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 22, 2017
Dak Prescott completed 16 of 25 passes for 234 yards, three passing touchdowns, four rushing attempts for 26 yards, and a rushing touchdown. This was his third straight game with three or more touchdowns. Prescott has a passer rating of 98.2 this season. He continues to be a viable QB1 in the Cowboys run-heavy offense.
Dak Prescott threw 3 TD passes, giving him 3 consecutive games with 3 TD passes. Tony Romo & Don Meredith are only other Cowboys to do same: pic.twitter.com/h2E1DotV0g
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) October 23, 2017
QB QUICK HITS
Tyrod Taylor finished as the QB9 last week in most formats. He and the Bills are matched up against a Raiders defense currently allowing 17.3 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Taylor has the fourth-best adjusted completion percentage on passes of 20 yards or more according to Pro Football Focus.
Prescott (23), Deshaun Watson (22.7), Alex Smith (22.5), Wentz (21.7), Tom Brady (20.7), Russell Wilson (20.4), and Kirk Cousins (20.3) are the only quarterbacks averaging 20 or more fantasy points per game through Week 7.
WHAT COMES NEXT?
The purpose of this column is to make you a more informed fantasy player and put you in the best possible position to harness this intellectual capital into a league-winning team. What statistics stood out to you? Please leave a comment below or reach out to me on Twitter.
You can find me @EricNMoody, and I am always open to answering questions or discussing football. Please be on the lookout for this column every Wednesday during the regular season. Until next time!
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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.