DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 6
Jay Gruden discussed getting the ball more to one of his team’s receivers out of their bye week, and I suspect he’ll be a chalky play as a result of the chatter and a bargain salary. The news sets up a nifty pivot on the same team, though, one who carries a lot of risk. This pivot is joined by an opponent who creates a game stack, a must-play chalk option at running back, and a pass-catching running back who I believe is poised for his best game in what’s been a disappointing year to date. Bargain salaries are a theme that ties all four of this week’s DraftKings touted plays together and using them as a group will leave tons of salary to spend on some of the biggest ticket studs to help round out your roster.
Josh Doctson (WR – WAS): $3,600 vs. 49ers
George Kittle (TE – 49ers): $3,400 @ Redskins
With a headline like this, and quotes from Gruden in the linked article indicating the team intends to get the ball more to Jamison Crowder the remainder of the year, I suspect many daily gamers will flock to the slot wideout who is only $400 more than his teammate, Doctson. The latter has split time as the No. 3 receiver with Ryan Grant thus far this year, so there are playing time risks to using Doctson. The TCU product has been oft-injured, but he was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and Thursday. The Redskins are coming out of a bye and their 2016 first-round pick is healthy. Could things finally be shaping up for him to take a step forward? Maybe. He’s a big target (6-2 and 206 pounds) who was extremely productive in college. The 24-year-old receiver hasn’t had many opportunities to shine, but he’s flashed his big-play ability with 79 yards receiving and a touchdown on three receptions the last two weeks. He’s averaging a whopping 29.0 yards per reception on five grabs in his career, and he dropped a potential TD grab last week that wasn’t an easy grab, but it was catchable. According to PlayerProfiler.com, Doctson’s been targeted twice in the end zone, so Kirk Cousins is willing to air it out to his big second-year wideout in the end zone. Football Outsiders ranks the 49ers 26th defending the pass and 29th defending “Other” wide receivers. San Francisco has yielded the sixth most DraftKings points per game to receivers this year, according to Pro-Football Reference, and the daily community isn’t sleeping on the matchup for Terrelle Pryor Sr. and Crowder, but the same fantasy-friendly matchup applies to Doctson, too. I’m a believer in Doctson emerging as an integral part of Washington’s passing attack, and you can get a huge edge when you hit on a talented player emerging instead of waiting to see it in order to believe it. Further bolstering the value of any of Washington’s offensive players is the fact they have an implied team over/under total of 28.75 points, per Pinnacle.
The game’s spread is 11 points favoring the Redskins, and that sets up for a pass-heavy game script for the 49ers. Pierre Garcon is the top pass catcher for San Francisco and has the whole revenge narrative nonsense working in his favor, but Kittle’s my preferred piece of their passing attack. The 146th pick in this year’s NFL Draft is coming off of his best game as a pro with a 7-83-1 line on nine targets. It’s his only game that includes reeling in a touchdown or besting 50 yards receiving. His previous yardage high was 35 in Week 4, so it’s been back-to-back weeks of setting receiving yardage highs. The matchup sets up well for another excellent showing. Even after having a bye last week, Washington has still allowed the third most receiving yards (361) to tight ends this year. That doesn’t even fully tell the story, either. The Texans and Chiefs have only allowed three yards and four yards more, respectively, to tight ends this year in one more game played than the Redskins. Washington’s coughed up the second most DraftKings points per game to tight ends this year, and Kittle is a receiving tight end with impressive measurables. He’s run a route on 66.0% of pass plays, per PlayerProfiler.com, and he’s on the field a ton averaging 50.2 snaps per game. Kittle was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday and Thursday while nursing a chest injury, but he doesn’t appear in much danger of missing the game. Obviously, you’ll want to check back on his status after today’s practice and before finalizing lineups on Sunday, but he should have little trouble hitting value for his salary.
Jerick McKinnon (RB – MIN): $4,100 vs. Packers
McKinnon truthers have been burned before in his limited prior opportunities, but those who’ve fallen in love with his eye-popping measurables were vindicated by his huge showing Monday night against the Bears. There’s no question who the best back is in Dalvin Cook‘s absence, and another bell-cow effort should be awarded to him this week in a plus matchup. FO ranks the Packers 20th defending the run and 25th defending backs in the passing game. Green Bay has ceded the 13th most DraftKings points per game to running backs this year. Even a mediocre back who’s a decent bet for 15-plus touches would make for an enticing play at McKinnon’s minimal salary commitment in a solid matchup, but McKinnon looks better than mediocre, and I’ll hazard a guess he’ll be the highest owned player this week. He’s deserving of being the highest owned player this week, and I think it’s a mistake to fade him.
Theo Riddick (RB – DET): $4,300 @ Saints
The Lions have been committed to getting the ball to Ameer Abdullah this year, and it’s resulted in an awful start to the year for Riddick. Last week was the first time he bested 50 yards from scrimmage in a game this season, and he barely did so with 53 yards (45 on four receptions and eight on two carries). Riddick has surpassed five receptions only one time this year, and he’s reached the end zone just one time, too. He has a great matchup this week, however, he had a great matchup in Week 3 and managed just four receptions for 38 yards on nine targets against the Falcons. What does this all mean? It should mean a low ownership rate from bitter gamers who’ve previously been burned, yet I’m willing to give him one more crack. The Lions are 4.5-point underdogs in New Orleans this week, so game script could once again play into the hands — bad pun intended — of Riddick. Having said that, the Lions would be wise to use their pass-catching specialist more right out of the gate. FO ranks New Orleans 20th defending running backs in the passing game, and the Saints are tied for the fourth most receptions allowed (32) to running backs, and they’ve coughed up the second most receiving yards (303) to backs. The floor is low, but four times value is within reach and would be a hell of a get at low ownership.