Week 4 was yet again a successful one, as several of the recommendations from last week met or exceeded value expectations. We are a quarter of the way through the season already, which means some identifiable and actionable trends are forming, which should, in turn, help us make better decisions.
Taking a look back at the recommendations from Week 4, there were plenty of bright spots. At quarterback, Aaron Rodgers (23.1 DKP), Russell Wilson (27.6 DKP) and Dak Prescott (23.6 DKP) were all solid options, with Jay Cutler (6.1 DKP) dropping a major dud in England. Much like last week, running back was again a strong suit, as Javorius Allen (10.4 DKP) was the lowest producing option listed. Ezekiel Elliott (29.9 DKP), Leonard Fournette (24.5 DKP) were both excellent options at the running back position. LeSean McCoy (13.8 DKP) was a disappointment given his price, but his score wasn’t awful. At receiver, three of the four produced, with DeAndre Hopkins (29.7 DKP) crushing his value threshold and A.J. Green (17.3 DKP) and Odell Beckham (16 DKP) producing solid lines. DeSean Jackson (4 DKP) was a big letdown, as he and Jameis Winston continue to struggle with chemistry. They are close, though, as they have nearly connected on a couple of big plays in every game. Tight end featured Travis Kelce (27.4 DKP) with a big outing, and Jimmy Graham (10.1 DKP) providing serviceable numbers for the price. The Seahawks’ defense proved to be a great play as predicted, with the Patriots (5 DKP) yet again getting gashed by an opposing offense. There’s enough of a sample coupled with some glaring film that will keep me away from them until (or if) it gets fixed. Let’s take a look at some top plays for Week 5 on DraftKings.
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Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers (GB): $7,600 vs. CHI
Rodgers is the top option at the position for the weekend games, as he and the Packers travel to Dallas for a showdown against the Cowboys. This game features a projected total of 52 points, with the spread currently less than a field goal. The Cowboys are allowing an average of 258 passing yards and two touchdowns per game, with Rodgers carrying a very high floor in Week 5 as a result.
Tom Brady (NE): $8,000 @ TB
Brady is my top projected quarterback for all of the Week 5 games, as the Patriots travel to Tampa for a Thursday night matchup against the Buccaneers. This contest sports the highest total of the week at 56 points, with the Patriots favored by five and a half points right now. The Buccaneers are allowing the third most passing yards per game on the season, while they have fared well against the run. This should lead to a pass-heavy script for Brady, especially if the defense continues to be a sieve.
Eli Manning (NYG): $6,100 vs. LAC
Manning and the Giants limp home winless after four weeks, but they will look to get things on track in a decent matchup for the passing game. The Chargers rank 24th in passing yards per game, and they are allowing one and a half passing touchdowns per contest. Manning has scored at least 27 DKP in consecutive outings, while his price still remains in a favorable range. In tournament play, Manning sticks out as a high upside option at home in a game that could wind up as a shootout between two gunslingers at quarterback.
Jameis Winston (TB): $6,000 vs. NE
Back to Tampa we go, where Winston emerges as my top value play at the position on a per dollar basis. It’s no secret that the New England defense has been awful against opposing passing attacks, as they’ve allowed an average of 335 passing yards and nearly three touchdowns per game. Winston is averaging 21.2 DKP per game, and he’s coming off of his best game of the young season. He threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns against the Giants in Week 4, and given the Patriots’ issues on defense, we could see a similar output this week.
Jay Cutler (MIA): $5,200 vs. TEN
Things have obviously not gone as well as the Dolphins had hoped when they lured the veteran quarterback out of retirement, but with the division up for grabs early on, there’s still plenty left to play for. Cutler has two passing touchdowns as well as two interceptions on the season, while he’s not thrown for more than 230 yards in any game this season. The good news is that he stands to cure what ails him in a big way this week, as the Titans will be traveling to Miami in Week 5. This is a chance for Cutler to get things back on track, as he will face a Tennessee defense who had allowed an average of 286 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns before their Week 4 massacre at the hands of Deshaun Watson. Watson threw for 283 yards and four touchdowns while adding a fifth on the ground, which punctuated an absolute demolition of this defense. If there were ever a time to take a discount and roll the dice on Cutler in tournaments, it’s Week 5.
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell (PIT): $9,500 vs. JAX
Bell finally got things going in Week 4, and he stands to continue his production in Week 5. This is an awful matchup for the Steelers’ passing game, while the matchup sets up beautifully for Bell. The Jaguars are allowing 166 rushing yards and nearly one and a half rushing touchdowns per game this season, which was punctuated by a thrashing at the hands of the Jets’ running backs in Week 4. Bell is extremely expensive, but if you can find enough value (you should be able to this week), he needs to be in your lineups.
Todd Gurley (LAR): $8,000 vs. SEA
Gurley is averaging over 26 touches per contest for the upstart Rams, and he’s your highest scoring fantasy player (using DraftKings’ scoring system) among all positions through four weeks. The Seahawks have struggled against the run so far through four weeks, as they’ve allowed 134 yards and nearly one rushing touchdown per game. They have been extremely tough against the pass, so I look for Sean McVay to take the ball out of Jared Goff’s hands and force feed Gurley in a divisional matchup that few thought would hold weight.
Carlos Hyde (SF): $6,900 @ IND
The Colts have allowed four rushing touchdowns and over 111 yards rushing in consecutive contests, and they will now be forced to deal with Hyde in Week 5. Barring any setbacks with Hyde’s injury situation, he should be able to take advantage of a plus matchup. There’s not much value in his salary, but I think he’s a fine tournament play this week, as he projects as a top seven option at the position.
Duke Johnson (CLE): $4,900 vs. NYJ
Latavius Murray should be very popular in this price range, and while that’s a fine route to go in cash games, Johnson is a strong pivot away from that high ownership. This is a plus matchup for the Browns at home against the Jets, and it’s hard to ignore what Johnson brings to the table on a weekly basis. He’s received 17 targets in the passing game over the past two weeks, and he’s hauled in 15 of those while registering a touchdown in each game. That kind of volume at this price is tough to overlook, and he could be an extremely valuable piece of your tournament rosters this weekend.
Wide Receivers
Odell Beckham (NYG): $8,500 vs. LAC
Beckham’s price dipped $400 heading into Week 5, despite hauling in seven passes for 90 yards in Week 4’s loss against the Buccaneers. Beckham received a whopping 15 targets, and despite dealing with a couple of nagging injuries during the game, was able to produce 16 DKP. While we expect more at this kind of price, the volume is encouraging to see. The Giants are still winless after four weeks, where they will face a Chargers’ defense who represents a neutral matchup for opposing passing attacks. Provided his ankle doesn’t cause any issues leading up to Week 5, Beckham is a strong GPP candidate this week at a slight discount.
Mike Evans (TB): $7,900 vs. NE/DeSean Jackson (TB): $5,400 vs. NE
The Buccaneers squeaked out a Week 4 win over the Giants, with Evans hauling in five passes for 67 yards and a touchdown. He nearly had a second later in the contest, but he was stopped just short. With 32 targets through three games, Evans continues to dominate the looks in the passing attack. While he’s not been overly efficient to this point, that could change in a big way this week. The Patriots were decimated yet again through the air last week, which has now emerged as a troublesome trend. Look for the Buccaneers to exploit this in a game that could very well turn into a shootout, with Evans likely to play a big role. In terms of Jackson, the nature of his game brings a lot of volatility to the table, but he couldn’t ask for a much better matchup. His lack of production thus far is due to maddening inconsistency in terms of him and Jameis Winston hooking up on the big plays, but they are very close. If they can get a rapport established, this will be a dangerous passing attack.
Brandin Cooks (NE): $7,400 @ TB
Sticking within Tampa, Cooks is a fine option to target this week. He continues to be unreliable in terms of his production, but I think he is a good candidate to bounce back this week. The Buccaneers have struggled against the pass thus far, and despite the return of Brent Grimes last week, they are still a bit banged up as a unit. As I noted earlier, this game could be a wild one in terms of points scored, so be sure to get exposure to both offenses this week.
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): $6,800 @ PHI
The Eagles have struggled against the pass through four weeks, and it’s gotten particularly bad over the last two games. They’ve allowed at least 347 passing yards in two straight, while they’ve surrendered five total passing touchdowns over that span. The Cardinals are struggling to protect Carson Palmer thus far, but Fitzgerald continues to command a ton of looks within this offense. Fitzgerald projects as a top 10 option at the position, which makes him a solid tournament play in Week 5.
DeVante Parker (MIA): $6,600 vs. TEN
Parker has a chance to do some damage this week, as the Dolphins host the deplorable Tennessee secondary. The third-year receiver has received 27 targets over three games, and he’s been able to convert 18 of those for catches. If he’s able to produce that despite his quarterback struggling to this point, I think there’s even more room to grow if Jay Cutler can pick his play up just a bit.
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski (NE): $6,900 @ TB
Gronkowski appears to be healthy, and he’s coming off of a four-catch,80-yardd game in Week 4. In a contest that could feature a bunch of scoring, Gronkowski is worth targeting despite his hefty price, especially with some value able to be utilized elsewhere this week. The Buccaneers could be without the services of linebackers Lavonte David and/or Kwon Alexander, which is something that the Patriots likely will exploit over the middle of the field.
Delanie Walker (TEN): $4,700 @ MIA
Walker has at least 50 receiving yards in three out of four games this season, as he continues to be one of the more reliable options at the tight end position. He has yet to log a receiving touchdown this season, which has kept his overall fantasy output in check. The Dolphins have allowed just one receiving touchdown to opposing tight ends this season, but the volume Walker has been receiving helps to ease some of those concerns.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (NYJ): $3,500 @ CLE
I’ve been banging the drum for Seferian-Jenkins the last two weeks, as he should continue to be an integral piece of the Jets’ passing game. He hauled in all four targets in Week 4 for 46 yards, and he is second on the team in targets since returning from suspension in Week 3. The looks are encouraging and with a very friendly tag, he’s one of the better values at the position due to a juicy matchup awaiting in Week 5. The Browns have allowed four passing touchdowns to tight ends this season, while allowing an average of 19.8 FDP per game to opposing tight ends. Look to Seferian-Jenkins as a solid tournament play in Week 5.
Defense/Special Teams
Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT): $3,900 vs. JAX
The Steelers are currently eight and a half point favorites at home against the Jaguars, and they are my top projected option at the position. Blake Bortles has been serviceable for Jacksonville, but he does have three interceptions on the season, and we know he can be turnover prone at times.
Cincinnati Bengals (CIN): $3,300 vs. BUF
The Bengals are favored by a field goal at home against the Bills, and this game features a low projected total of just 39 points. The Bills are currently a surprising 3-1 on the season, but it’s not like they are an offensive juggernaut. It’s always a good idea to target home favorites with a low implied total, and the Bengals fit that bill this week.
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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net
