DraftKings NFL Lineup Advice: Week 6 (Thur/Sun/Mon)
Week 5 was a mixed bag of results, as there were plenty of nice performances from last week’s article, but there were several duds as well. As always, transparency is key when analyzing results, so let’s dig in and see what went right or wrong.
Taking a look back at the recommendations from Week 5, there some solid outings. At quarterback, Aaron Rodgers (24 DKP), Russell Wilson (27.6 DKP) and Jameis Winston (21.5 DKP) were both great options, with Tom Brady (17.6 DKP) producing enough to be serviceable, although we would have liked a touch more given his salary. Eli Manning (15 DKP) was average, but considering he lost four receivers during the course of the game, I can’t complain. I’m officially done with Jay Cutler (7.5 DKP), as he couldn’t take advantage of a prime matchup at home against the Titans. Running back featured two strong players in LeVeon Bell (19.3 DKP) and Duke Johnson (17.3 DKP). Those two were followed by two duds, as Todd Gurley (6 DKP) and Carlos Hyde (2.8 DKP) couldn’t take advantage of good matchups. At receiver, three of the six produced, with Odell Beckham (21.5 DKP) coming through before suffering an injury. DeSean Jackson (18.6 DKP) and Brandin Cooks (13.5 DKP) rounded out the positives at the position. Larry Fitzgerald (11.1 DKP), Mike Evans (9.9 DKP) and DeVante Parker (1.6 DKP) were all disappointments. Tight end featured Austin Seferian-Jenkins (14.9 DKP) crushing his low-value threshold, while Delanie Walker (5.5 DKP) failed to produce much of anything. Rob Gronkowski did not play in Week 5. The Steelers’ (5.5 DKP) defense got blasted at home against the Jaguars. The Bengals (9 DKP) proved to be a solid play for the price, and they came in with relatively low ownership levels as well. Let’s take a look at some top plays for Week 6 on DraftKings.
Tom Brady (NE) : $8,300 @ NYJ
Brady and the Patriots will face the streaking (?!) Jets, who have won three straight games. What looked like an easy game has now turned into a somewhat meaningful divisional contest. Let’s be clear though, the Jets have faced the Bills, Raiders, Dolphins, Jaguars and Browns to start the season, so context is important. Despite facing the likes of Jay Cutler, Blake Bortles and the Browns’ quarterbacks over the last three weeks, the Jets still rank 18th on the season in terms of fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks. Brady is an elite, albeit expensive option this week and should be targeted in cash games.
Drew Brees (NO) : $7,200 vs. DET
This contest features a projected total of 50 points right now, with the Saints currently favored by four and a half points at home. This is a bad matchup on paper, but the Lions are coming off of an ugly defensive outing against the Panthers, as they allowed 355 passing yards and three scores in Week 5. Brees is always dangerous at home, and if Cam Newton can produce against this defense, I like Brees’ chances to do the same. The veteran signal caller is a high upside tournament play this week.
Deshaun Watson (HOU) : $6,700 vs. CLE
Watson continues to produce at an elite level, and with the Browns in town, he may very well continue his stellar play in Week 6. The Browns rank 27th in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, as they’ve allowed nine passing touchdowns over their last four games. Watson has nine passing touchdowns over his last two outings, while scoring at least 34 DKP in both contests. You do need to worry a bit about the blowout factor, as the Texans are currently double-digit favorites at home. Watson is a top three value at the position in terms of dollars per projected point, while also checking in as a top-five overall projected option at quarterback.
Kevin Hogan (CLE) : $4,600 @ HOU
It sounds like DeShone Kizer has run out of time for now, which should mean a start for Hogan this week. It’s never fun to trust a backup on the road who plays for the Browns, but the value Hogan provides is unmistakable. The Texans rank 28th in terms of fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks, but it’s important to note that is inflated a bit due to big games from Tom Brady and Alex Smith. Still, you’re looking for around 13 or 14 DKP for Hogan to hit value, while his low salary creates all sorts of roster flexibility.
Kareem Hunt (KC) : $8,200 vs. PIT
The Steelers have allowed an average of 156 rushing yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game to running backs over the past four weeks, so it’s hard not to have Hunt squarely on your radar this week. The rookie is averaging 22.6 touches per game, while he’s averaging 28.1 DKP per contest. I look for the Chiefs to lean heavily on Hunt this week, as they surely want to avoid a Pittsburgh defense who has allowed an average of just 150 passing yards per game over the last four weeks.
Leonard Fournette (JAX) : $8,000 vs. LAR
The Rams have been deplorable against the run this season, as they rank 29th in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing running backs. They’ve allowed an average of 148 rushing yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game over the last four weeks, which is something I expect the run-heavy Jaguars to exploit. Fournette is getting all of the touches he can handle (24.4/gm), and he’s coming off of a monster game against the Steelers in which he scored 34.4 DKP. He’s a good candidate to repeat that performance at home this week.
Todd Gurley (LAR) : $7,700 @ JAX
Gurley couldn’t take advantage of a plus divisional matchup last week, but I look for him to bounce back in a big way on the road against Jacksonville this week. The Jaguars rank 23rd in terms of fantasy points allowed per game to opposing running backs, and they are allowing an average of 160 rushing yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game over the last four weeks. I’m hoping Gurley’s ownership levels slip just a bit after a dud last week, but don’t make that mistake, as he should wind up as a top three back in Week 6.
Lamar Miller (HOU) : $5,400 vs. CLE
Miller has received 20 or more touches in two out of five games, but he’s cheap enough to offset any concerns about volume. Toss in a decent matchup against the Browns in a game that features a double-digit spread, and you could see the Texans not leaning on Deshaun Watson quite as much this week. Miller has top 10 upside at home, and he could fly under the radar just a bit with a bunch of studs in good matchups.
Jerick McKinnon (MIN) ): $4,100 vs. GB
McKinnon produced 26.6 DKP in Week 5, as he showed far more spark than teammate Latavius Murray. There’s some concern that the two may continue to split the workload, but McKinnon’s price is too good to pass up. The Packers present an above-average matchup for opposing running backs, as they rank 20th in terms of fantasy points allowed per game. I’d look for McKinnon to be very popular this week, as his price rose just $100, but the value he creates might be too good to pass up when constructing rosters.
Antonio Brown (PIT): $9,300 @ KC
There’s some concern over not only Ben Roethlisberger‘s issues on the road, but also his overall play to begin the 2017 season. The Steelers are too talented offensively to be this inconsistent, but this shows how truly important the quarterback position is. The Chiefs present a good matchup for Brown and the Steelers’ receivers, as they rank 28th in terms of fantasy points allowed per game. They’ve allowed nine passing touchdowns to receivers over the past four weeks, including five last week to the Texans. Brown is typically a plug and play for cash games most weeks, but I think I’d keep him as a high upside tournament play this week.
Julio Jones (ATL) : $8,300 vs. MIA
There’s nothing overly exciting about this matchup, as the Dolphins rank 11th in fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, but Jones is matchup proof when healthy. That last word is crucial, as Jones was dealing with a hip issue in Week 4, but the Falcons were off last week, so I’m hoping the rest helped him. Jones has yet to record a touchdown this season, but we know the upside he has and for that reason, I love him in tournament play this week.
T.Y. Hilton (IND) : $6,700 @ TEN
Hilton has fared better at home on the turf in his career when compared to playing on the road, so there’s some reason for pause when considering him this week. That being said, I’m hoping a prime matchup coupled with a developing rapport with Jacoby Brissett helps to boost Hilton in Week 6. Hilton is entirely too risky for cash games as he carries a low floor, but he does possess 20+DKP upside in a Monday night divisional showdown against the Titans.
Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) : $6,400 vs. PHI
The Panthers will host the Eagles for Thursday Night Football, and it’s a great opportunity for Cam Newton and the passing game to continue their recent success. The Eagles have allowed 314 passing yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game over their last four contests, while they’ve been stout against the run. The Eagles rank 31st in terms of fantasy points allowed per game to opposing receivers, making Benjamin a fine tournament play this week.
Albert Wilson (KC) : $3,300 vs. PIT
This is not a good matchup for the Chiefs’ passing attack, but Wilson should find himself receiving a few more looks this week with Chris Conley on the shelf. Keep in mind that Wilson obviously isn’t sliding into a ton more targets, but I think he’s worth rolling the dice on in tournaments at this price, as he obviously doesn’t have to do a ton to pay off his low salary.
Zach Ertz (PHI) : $6,300 @ CAR
The Panthers are tough against opposing tight ends, but it’s tough to ignore the volume Ertz is receiving thus far in the season. He’s averaging 10 targets per game, which has translated to him scoring at least 13.1 DKP in all five games for the Eagles. He will be tough to roster at this price in cash games, but there’s nothing wrong with utilizing him if you have the salary flexibility.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (NYJ) : $4,300 vs. NE
If it’s not broke, don’t fix it, right? Well, that’s what I’ll tell myself this week, as Seferian-Jenkins is still priced in such a manner where it’s tough to fade him. He caught six of eight targets last week, and scored his first touchdown of the season, and he will look to make it two straight in Week 6. The Patriots have allowed three passing touchdowns to opposing tight ends, and Josh McCown is clearly leaning on his talented tight end in the three games since Seferian-Jenkins returned from suspension.
Denver Broncos (DEN) : $4,000 vs. NYG
This feels very similar to Week 4, in which the Seahawks were the clear top option at the position, despite also being the most expensive. The Giants limp into Denver still winless, and now they are short at least three receivers, and it could be four if Sterling Shepard doesn’t play. Lock the Broncos in at defense across all formats this week.
Atlanta Falcons (ATL) : $3,500 vs. MIA
With the Broncos likely to be highly sought after, and for good reason, you might want to have a fade play available as well. The Falcons appear to fit the bill, as they are big favorites at home against the Dolphins, who don’t present a big concern offensively.