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FanDuel NFL Lineup Advice: Week 7 (Thur/Sun/Mon)

FanDuel NFL Lineup Advice: Week 7 (Thur/Sun/Mon)

I love this week’s Thu/Sun/Mon slate on FanDuel. There is a ton of talent added to the mix, and a pair of shootouts book end things with an AFC West showdown between the Chiefs and Raiders on Thursday and an NFC East showdown on Monday. The over/under total in the Thursday Night Football game is 46.5 points, and the spread is only three points favoring the Chiefs, according to Pinnacle. The Monday Night Football game has an even bigger over/under total of 48.5 points, and the spread of 4.5 points favoring the host Eagles leaves the door open to a close shootout in that contest, too. The added talent from the two additional games compared to the main slate is well represented on the team below, as four players from those two games are included. The following team is built for GPPs specifically, and I wouldn’t advise using it in cash games.

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Quarterback

Carson Wentz (PHI): $7,800 vs. Redskins
It doesn’t take long for the impact of the addition of the Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football games to rear its head. The quarterback shootout that will — rightfully — get most of the attention this week is between Tom Brady and Matt Ryan in New England, and I’ll almost certainly have exposure to it on some of my main slate rosters. However, on this slate, the matchup between Wentz and Kirk Cousins has plenty of potential for fireworks, too. Wentz provides $900 of salary relief from Ryan and $1,400 from Brady. Philadelphia’s sophomore signal caller is making strides in year two in the NFL, and he ranks eighth in passing yards per game (264.0), tied for sixth in yards per pass attempt (7.7), fourth in adjusted yards per pass attempt (8.26), tied for ninth in net yards per pass attempt (6.74), sixth in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.30), and tied for second in passing touchdowns (13), per Pro-Football Reference. He’s done a great job of taking care of the football with just three interceptions in six games this season, and in each of his last two games against the Redskins — including a Week 1 matchup against them this year — he’s bested 300 yards passing. The Eagles are 4.5-point favorites with an implied team over/under total of 26.5 points.

Running Back

Devonta Freeman (ATL): $7,800 @ Patriots
I wouldn’t advise fading the game in New England. On the main slate, I’ll have some exposure to the quarterbacks and the premier pass-catching options. On this team — and possibly some of my main slate teams — I’ll turn to Freeman. He’s been the lead back for the Falcons this year with Tevin Coleman serving as his change-of-pace complement. Freeman’s carried the ball 18 or more times in three of five contests, and he’s bested 55 yards rushing in four straight. The 25-year-old back is averaging a new high of 70.6 yards rushing per game, and he’s already rushed for five touchdowns. He’s also been no slouch through the air averaging 2.2 receptions per game for 16.2 yards receiving per game. Those receiving totals are actually down from the last two years, and he has a chance to do serious damage against the Patriots through the air this week. New England has yielded the second most targets (56), tied for the most receptions allowed (43), has allowed the most receiving yards (462), and is tied for the most touchdown receptions allowed (three) to running backs this year. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Patriots 23rd defending the run and 28th defending running backs as receivers. Freeman’s well-rounded skill-set makes him game-script proof, and he’s a great piece of Atlanta’s implied team over/under total of 25.75 points.

Jerick McKinnon (MIN): $7,000 vs. Ravens
McKinnon actually split the rushing workload nearly 50/50 with Latavius Murray last week. McKinnon rushed the ball 16 times and Murray toted the rock 15 times. The former was much more effective than the latter with 69 yards rushing compared to 28, and McKinnon rushed for a touchdown. The more explosive McKinnon is also clearly Minnesota’s best receiving back, and he once again demonstrated his excellence as a receiver hauling in five of six targets for 30 yards and a score. While he’s game-script proof, Minnesota serving as a 5.5-point favorite at home bodes well for his chances to pile up touches as a runner. The matchup is drool inducing on the ground, too. Baltimore’s coughed up the third most rushing yards (747) to running backs this year, and they’ve been torched for 266 yards on just 23 receptions as well. Add it all up and they’ve surrendered the sixth most FanDuel points per game to running backs this year. I was surprised McKinnon’s ownership was only 7.1% in last week’s $2M Sun NFL FanDuel Sunday Million at a minimal salary commitment of only $5,600. After a $1,400 price jump this week, there’s a decent chance to get him at a low ownership rate again.

Wide Receiver

Nelson Agholor (PHI): $5,900 vs. Redskins
The obvious stack partner with Wentz is tight end Zach Ertz. This is a swerve off of the obvious stack. Agholor is thriving this year working from the slot, and he’s shown he doesn’t need a high volume of work to do damage. He’s tallied 55 yards receiving or more in three straight games, and he’s spread out his four touchdown receptions across four games. Washington had no answer for the USC product in the season opener. Agholor posted a 6-86-1 line on eight targets. PlayerProfiler.com credits Agholor with four targets in the red zone and three targets in the end zone, and they have him at 2.0 yards per route run, which they rank 37th highest this year.

Terrelle Pryor Sr. (WAS): $6,200 @ Eagles
Pryor isn’t playing like the No. 1 receiver many envisioned he’d be working with Cousins. The converted quarterback set single-game highs this year in targets (11) and receptions (six) while totaling 66 yards against the Eagles in Week 1, though. He stunk up the joint last week with three receptions for 23 yards in a great matchup with the 49ers, but he made the most of a great matchup prior to Washington’s bye in Week 4 when he beat up on the Chiefs for 70 yards and a touchdown on three grabs. Philadelphia represents another plus fantasy matchup this week. The Eagles have allowed the fifth most FanDuel points per game to receivers this season, and Pryor’s size (6-6 and 240 pounds) always makes him an enticing red-zone target and matchup nightmare. Also, with the Redskins serving as 4.5-point underdogs on the road, the Redskins could find themselves airing the ball out often to keep up or catch up to their host.

Michael Crabtree (OAK): $7,300 vs. Chiefs
Crabtree rounds out a receiving corps that’s made up entirely of players in the Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football games. The 30-year-old wide out has been exceptionally efficient this year setting a new personal high for catch percentage (73.5%), and that mark ranks 14th best among qualified receivers this year, per Pro-Football Reference. The efficiency helps make up for his drop in looks (34 targets, putting his pace well short of matching his 145 targets from last year). Crabtree is tied for 33rd in receptions (25), 23rd in receiving yards per game (60.8), and tied for third in touchdown receptions (five). He has a nose for the end zone with 22 touchdown receptions in 37 games played in three years with the Raiders. The Chiefs have allowed the second most FanDuel points per game to receivers this season, and FO ranks them 27th defending No. 1 receivers. Derek Carr struggled last week playing through his back injury, but he said his back felt fine after Sunday’s game, according to this piece from David Steele of The Sporting News. Crabtree didn’t need Carr to be sharp to deliver a helpful line of 6-52-1 on 10 targets last week, and if Carr’s sharper in his second game back, Crabtree’s scoring ceiling will get a huge shot in the arm.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski (NE): $8,500 vs. Falcons
Gronk is $1,100 more than the second highest priced tight end, Travis Kelce. The third highest priced tight end is Ertz ($7,200). This specific slate gets a huge talent influx at tight end, and that should result in Gronk’s ownership rate being significantly lower on this slate than the main one. You don’t really need me to tell you about how great Gronk is or how high his scoring ceiling is in any matchup, so instead I’ll suggest taking advantage of the reduced ownership rate on this slate relative to the main one. As an aside, if you like Delanie Walker ($5,900) in a great matchup with the Browns as well, he’ll also benefit from Kelce and Ertz joining the mix on this slate.

Kicker

Wil Lutz (NO): $4,800 @ Packers
Lutz kicked only one field goal last week, but he drilled seven successful point-after attempts. He’s tied to a high-powered offense with a juicy team over/under total of 26.75. No, he won’t have the benefit of kicking indoors like he would at home, but he’s attached to the aforementioned juicy team total, and the Packers are tied for the 10th most field-goal attempts (12) against them this season. Furthermore, Lutz’s 14 field-goal attempts this year are tied for the sixth most.

Defense/Special Teams

Vikings (MIN): $4,700 vs. Ravens
The Vikings D/ST are a great stack partner with McKinnon. The Ravens’ offense has been pathetic this year. Baltimore’s 24th in points scored per game (19.0), 30th in yards per play (4.5), and they have the third most turnovers (12). Their implied team over/under total is only 17.25 points this week. Finally, Minnesota’s defense has been sharp this year. They’re tied for the fourth fewest yards allowed per play (4.8), tied for 12th in turnovers forced (eight), tied for seventh in sacks (16), and fifth in points allowed per game (17.2).

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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