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FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 5

FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 5

We’re through a quarter of the season, somehow, but we finally have some decent samples to analyze. With the exception of the Dolphins and Buccaneers, every team has played four games. The injuries are piling up, though. Marcus Mariota went down last Sunday, but it looks like he should be alright. Derek Carr was not so lucky and will miss several weeks with a broken bone in his back. It’s a shame since the Raiders are crippled without him in a year when they had a shot at winning the division. He’s also one of my favorite players to watch. While I wish him a speedy recovery, for the moment, his injury opens up some interesting value possibilities for us, both on offense and defense. The Green Bay running back situation is a mess with injuries and for the moment, I’m avoiding it if possible. We have plenty of other interesting value plays at running back.

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Quarterback

Jay Cutler (MIA): $6,700 vs. TEN
In full disclosure, it was hard to type Cutler’s name. This recommendation is little about what he has done himself and all about the complete inability to defend the pass that the Titans have demonstrated. Through four games, they are second in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They’re tied with the Patriots defense for most touchdowns allowed through the air (11). They’ve allowed nearly 275 passing yards per game, fourth most, and the fifth-highest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks. It’s been a bloodbath and that includes matchups with Jacksonville, Houston, and Seattle – not the most prolific passing attacks. I’m not sure if Cutler is even as good as Blake Bortles, but it might not matter against this defense. He has some other things in his favor, like excellent weapons and what should be a strong running game. It’s also Miami’s first home game of the season, which will make communication easier. He’s dirt cheap (third in our Undervalued Player Rankings), but still, use with extreme caution.

Running Back

Wayne Gallman (NYG): $5,200 vs. LAC
A lot of the values this week are volatile and Wayne Gallman is among them. After not playing the first three games, Wayne Gallman finally got the call to help the Giants’ anemic running game. I can’t say he was electric, but he still looked like the best Giants running back we’ve seen this year. The real question is, will he get the touches? He got 13 in Week 4. He was on the field for 31 snaps, compared to 27 for Paul Perkins and 22 for Shane Vereen (Orleans Darkwa did not see the field). I think this week he sees 15-18 touches, which for his price against a bad Chargers’ run defense is a solid value. The Chargers have allowed the second-most rushing yards this season and the fifth-highest yards per carry. They’ve also allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs. He’s tied for the second most undervalued running back in our rankings.

Frank Gore (IND): $6,000 @ SF
Frank Gore is quietly churning along for yet another season, though he’s definitely been less effective than previous years. Still, he’s averaging 17 touches per game. This week, he returns to San Francisco for the first time. Yes, it is a “revenge game,” but no that’s not a major factor in my recommendation. Maybe it adds a little extra motivation, but he might not need it against a rush defense allowing 106 yards per game. If you exclude the 51-yard performance from Arizona, who might as well not have a running back, it’s 124 yards per game. They’ve also allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs, which will be a friendly welcome back for Frank Gore.

Marshawn Lynch (OAK): $6,100 vs. BAL
There’s little more than speculation about what the Raiders will do in the absence of Derek Carr. Certainly, having E.J. Manuel under center will change their game plan and it’s only logical to think they would try to lean on the running game more. That’s what they brought in Marshawn Lynch for, after all, so if ever he’s going to have a coming out party, this should be it. The Ravens’ run defense has evaporated in the absence of Brandon Williams. In the two full games without Williams, they’ve allowed 166 and 173 rushing yards, after allowing 77 in the only full game with him. Even including that game, they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points and the eight-most rushing yards. The biggest concern is Lynch’s low 11 carries per game average, but I think that has to go up with the circumstances they’re in.

Wide Receiver

Rishard Matthews (TEN): $5,600 @ MIA
The Dolphins’ pass defense isn’t much better than the Titans’. Miami has suffered a lot of injuries to their defense already and it’s not entirely clear yet who will be available. But at no point have they been good. Rishard Matthews will likely see a lot of Bobby McClain and little of Byron Maxwell, who have both struggled this season. Matthews is averaging eight targets per game and has been the most consistently targeted Titans wide receiver. It’s looking like Marcus Mariota might play this Sunday, which is obviously a huge boost for Matthews. If Matt Cassel is under center, this play loses its appeal. For the moment, he’s ranked our second-most undervalued receiver.

DeVante Parker (MIA): $6,100 vs. TEN
If I’m going to recommend Jay Cutler, I’m definitely going to recommend a Dolphins receiver. Parker is clearly the most underpriced among them, third in our rankings. Jarvis Landry ($6,600) is a solid play, but not the value that Parker is. The Titans have allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers, as with quarterbacks. LeShaun Sims will likely be tasked with covering him, with Logan Ryan helping out if Parker moves to the slot. Neither has been good this season and Parker has three inches on Sims and four on Ryan. He’s averaged a strong nine targets per game. Tennessee has already allowed 11 passing touchdowns and it wouldn’t surprise me to see DeVante Parker break a long one for number 12.

Tight End

Antonio Gates (LAC): $4,600 @ NYG
The Giants have been so, so bad at defending tight ends. They’ve allowed the most fantasy points by a wide margin. They’re allowing 14.7 FanDuel points per game, while the second-highest (Browns) allow only 12.7. The one problem with the Chargers is that they have two very good tight ends, Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry. Gates has gotten the more consistent usage, with 4.3 targets per game to only 2.5 for Henry. The trouble is, it could be Henry who catches a touchdown. They’ve played roughly even snaps, with Gates averaging just under 37 and Henry 33 per game. Still, Gates offers a $600 discount from Henry and has been targeted more consistently. He’s the number one undervalued tight end in our rankings.

Defense/Special Teams

Ravens D/ST: $4,500 @ OAK
Any team losing their quarterback is going to be in shambles the very next week. E.J. Manuel looked surprisingly decent in relief of Derek Carr last week, but his career says otherwise. He has a career 7.2% sack rate and a Sack%+ of 93, which is a rating scaled so that 100 is average and higher is better, making Manuel significantly (though not drastically) below average. His Sack%+ score is 15th-worst since 2013 among quarterbacks with greater than 500 attempts. His career passer rating of 76.9 is fourth-worst among the same group. He’s bad. The Ravens defense has been pretty good, especially against the pass. The loss of Brandon Williams was a huge blow to their run defense, but the Raiders haven’t had much success running the ball so far this season, and with E.J. Manuel at quarterback, the Ravens will likely be able to sell out to stop the run. The Ravens D/ST is a solid play that is clearly priced for facing Derek Carr, not E.J. Manuel.

Eagles D/ST: $4,600 vs. ARI
I don’t usually write up two defenses, but I was looking at the most undervalued defenses and the Eagles caught my eye. I’m always a fan of playing the Eagles D/ST because they have dynamic special teams players who can often add a surprise touchdown. Then I looked at how many sacks Arizona has allowed this season. They’re tied with Houston for the most (17). And they just lost another offensive lineman. The Eagles have racked up 10 sacks, which puts them around the middle of the pack, but Arizona’s offensive line woes should help them up that total. The Cardinals have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing D/ST this year. The sacks should give the Eagles D/ST a good floor, while the possibility of a special teams touchdown or even an interception return (they have four picks) gives them strong upside.

Kicker

Jake Elliott (PHI): $4,700 vs. ARI
Jake Elliott got a little bit of fame by nailing a 61-yard field goal to defeat the Giants. He’s averaged 15.5 fantasy points in two games. The Eagles are expected to score a lot of points and the point spread has them as large favorites (6.5 points). That should mean that they will be ahead and in theory, happy to go for field goals instead of pushing for touchdowns. There’s an awful lot of speculation there, but we do know that Elliott can hit it through the uprights from a huge distance, which should increase his opportunity for kicks (and the points that he gets for them).

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Steve Repsold is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Steve, check out his archive and follow him @SteveRepsold.

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