Last week, C.J. Anderson would have ruined everything had it not been for the incredible performance by the New Orleans Saints defense. Hopefully we have less of the Anderson type of surprises this week and more of the Saints’ magic. Week 7’s slate has one stack that is extremely difficult to avoid and a killer value at both running back and receiver that will enable us to spend up for stars at other positions. Let’s take a look at how it all came together.
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Quarterback
Dak Prescott (DAL @ SF): $8,400
I wouldn’t advise using Dak for GPP contests this week, as he doesn’t seem to possess the ceiling you need to take down a tournament, but he is a gimme this week in cash games. Only three times in his 21 game career have we seen him post fewer than 17 FanDuel points. Two of those were against the Giants, who seem to have his number. It seems near impossible that he would bust this week against a lousy defense like the 49ers. In order to hit value, he needs 225 yards and 2 touchdowns. I’m pretty sure Blake Bortles could manage that against the 49ers.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL @ SF): $8,700
So far this season, Zeke has 31 touches, 26 touches, 26 touches, a disaster against the Broncos (as is common with most teams) and 29 touches. With the suspension likely resuming in two weeks, you can expect another 25+ this week against one of the worst run defenses in the league. Don’t worry about rostering both he and Prescott (and Dez, as you’ll see later). While it will limit your lineup’s ceiling, it also minimizes the risk.
Joe Mixon (CIN @ PIT): $5,600
Recency bias will have it that Mixon’s ownership should end up below 10%, but I’d argue he is the best value in the slate at any position. Since the transition began with a new offensive coordinator, Mixon has 19 touches per game. That is tough to find from a $7,600 running back, let alone one $2,000 cheaper. Add in the fact that he is coming off a bye, against a weak run defense and a freak athlete and we might just see 4x value from him Sunday.
Wide Receiver
Antonio Brown (CIN @ PIT): $9,300
Typically, when a receiver is up above $9,000 and up against a top 5 pass defense on the year, I’d avoid them at all costs, but this week is an entirely different scenario. Brown has been shredding everyone including Jalen Ramsay for 157 yards and 10 receptions. He also went for 150+ last week against Marcus Peters. This week, the Bengals could be missing both of their starting cornerbacks. He needs 8 receptions, 86 yards and a score to reach value. To me, that is one of the easiest bets of the week.
Dez Bryant (DAL @ SF): $8,200
Yes, I am using three Cowboys. If you own Dez in a season-long league, you are likely disappointed in his production so far, but I am stunned at how much he has been able to accomplish considering the opposition so far. This week is by far his easiest matchup of the season and seeing that Dez has been the most reliant (by far) of any top 10 wide receivers over the past three seasons on matchups, he should dominate.
Bennie Fowler (DEN @ LAC): $4,500
Last week, I raved about the Saints defense and how although it was a head-scratcher to most that it seems like cheating to me because I was so confident. This week, the same is true with Fowler, although the public might be more aware of this situation. He is the site minimum price despite starting for the Broncos this week. Emmanuel Sanders is out, Demaryius Thomas will spend most of his time dealing with Casey Hayward and his calf injury, and Fowler should see a ton of work. He already leads the team in red zone targets and had 8 total targets last week despite not starting. All he needs to hit value is 5 receptions and 65 yards. If he adds a score or two, he would shred value.
Tight End
Jimmy Graham (SEA @ NYG): $5,800
We’ve got so many strong options to pick between this week with Delanie Walker (if healthy) against Cleveland, Austin Seferian-Jenkins at Miami, Evan Engram against the Seahawks and Hunter Henry at home against the Broncos. Graham is the play, however, because the Giants have allowed a league-leading 72 yards and 1.2 TD per game to the position for a whopping 17 FanDuel points per game. Add in the fact that Doug Baldwin will be preoccupied with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and it all just seems to obvious what to do.
Defense
Minnesota Vikings (MIN vs BAL): $4,700
While the Vikings may not be the strongest fantasy defense at this point in the season, they are without question among the top-tier of real-life defenses. Typically, that translates to fantasy production, but they haven’t found their way into the end zone and have only recovered one fumble. Both of these stats are highly random, however. What is not is the fact that they have allowed fewer than 20 points in 5 out of 6 games despite having played some top-notch offenses, plus they are piling up the stats. We can count on fewer than 20 points again with multiple sacks and a turnover or three against Joe Flacco and Alex Collins, who are both turnover prone.
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Thanks for reading. If you haven’t already, please check out the FantasyPros Football Podcast (below) that I co-host with Mike Tagliere. Good luck this season.
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