In a year where we’ve already lost one of the best running backs, wide receivers, and defensive linemen, it was probably just a matter of time for Aaron Rodgers. Alas, the bell tolled for him on Sunday. Rodgers was a mainstay in this column in the midst of another great season, finishing with four QB1 starts in five completed games and never finishing lower than 13th in any week. Vaya con Dios, friend.
Fortunately, there’s always an answer at quarterback in fantasy football. Unfortunately, you’re not likely to find it this week. The slate is not very good, to put it mildly. Like, if your DVR is a little backlogged it wouldn’t be the worst thing to start clearing it out Sunday at 1:00. Regardless, I was able to cobble together a list of QB1s for the week. Let’s get to it.
As a reminder, this isn’t a pure start/sit column-weird stuff happens every week, so there are a few far-fetched but plausible QB1 predictions sprinkled in.
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1) Tom Brady (NE): vs. Atlanta
We always love the home favorite in high scoring games. That’s Brady this week, facing a Falcons defense that had been playing well overall but just blew a 17 point lead against Jay Cutler. With Aaron Rodgers likely done for the season, Brady is the new frontrunner for No. 1 overall fantasy quarterback. Expect a big game after a fairly uninspiring 16-point outing against the Jets last week.
2) Marcus Mariota (TEN): @ Cleveland
I don’t need to spend a lot of time convincing you that Mariota is a good play against Cleveland, who’s allowing the second-most points to opposing quarterbacks while quietly doing a very good job against the run.
Instead, I’ll note that all the discussion about Mariota’s mobility due to the hamstring injury seems misguided. Last year only 18% of his fantasy points came from rushing. That’s relatively high-only eight quarterbacks had a higher percentage -but a far cry from the rushing-dependent guys like Tyrod Taylor (35%), pre-blackball Colin Kaepernick (29%), and Cam Newton (26%).
3) Drew Brees (NO): @ Green Bay
I see folks talking about Green Bay’s defense like it’s still the Swiss cheese unit we saw in 2016. It’s not. They’re middle of the pack in both adjusted net yards/attempt and fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. I’d consider a road game against Green Bay to be a neutral matchup, not a favorable one.
Neutral is really all we need for Brees. He’s been a mild disappointment for fantasy-he’s 10th among quarterbacks in points per game and has just one QB1 finish this season-but has multiple touchdowns in every game since Week 1 and is playing as well as ever. The fantasy production will eventually catch up to his real-life dominance.
4) Dak Prescott (DAL): @ San Francisco
Coming off a bye, Prescott heads to San Francisco to face one of the most generous teams when it comes to quarterback scoring. Prescott has three straight games with at least 22 fantasy points and has been a QB1 every week of the season after doing so in 10 of 16 games last year. One of the underrated keys to his consistency: his legs. While not a volume rusher (3.2 attempts/game), he’s recorded at least 24 yards or a rushing touchdown in every game this season. That’s a nice boost to his floor, and one of the reasons he almost always finds a way into the top 12.
5) Alex Smith (KC): vs. Oakland
The thought process wasn’t very complicated here. Coming into Thursday Night Football, Smith was the second-best quarterback on the year and Oakland was the second-worst passing defense by adjusted net yards/attempt.
It worked! The new gun-slinging version of Smith had three passes of over 30 yards on Thursday, finishing with 342 passing yards, three touchdowns, and 25.7 fantasy points.
6) Kirk Cousins (WAS): @ Philadelphia
Quarterback is such an important position that when you find one who’s merely competent, you hold on to him for dear life. Unless you’re the Redskins. The fine folks in Washington were totally bailed out from the RGIII disaster when their true franchise quarterback, Cousins, was sitting right there. Since that time, Washington has refused to lock him up long-term and has thrown him under the bus every chance they get.
Hopefully, those of you owning Cousins in the fake world cherish him more dearly. Since Week 3, only Deshaun Watson has more fantasy points per game than Cousins. After leading all quarterbacks in scoring last week, Cousins gets to take on a weak Philadelphia secondary on Monday Night Football. Really, it’s the perfect matchup for Cousins. The Redskins can’t run, and Philadelphia is significantly better at stopping the run than they are at stopping the pass.
7) Carson Wentz (PHI): vs. Washington
Get your fire emojis ready…is Wentz the most overrated quarterback in the NFL?
I mean, he’s fine. He should not be the frontrunner for MVP.
Regardless, he’s got a good matchup this week at home against a banged-up Washington defense. They allowed C.J. Beathard to put up 245 yards in relief duty last week while nearly leading a big comeback.
8) Matt Ryan (ATL): @ New England
It’s getting tough to keep including Ryan here. He has just one QB1 finish all season, and in just about any other matchup I’d leave him on the bench and say “prove it.”
But he has this matchup. New England’s combo meal of elite offense and inept defense has spurred high-scoring matchups all season, and with the highest over/under of the week (54.5), this should be no exception. New England hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row to start the season, but are still allowing by far the most points to opposing quarterbacks (24.2). Until they show signs of improvement, the quarterback facing New England is an auto-start.
(While we’re here, can I preemptively rant about the “Atlanta avenging last year’s Super Bowl loss” garbage we’re sure to hear on Sunday? Winning this game by 1,000 points wouldn’t make any Falcons fan feel one iota better about Super Bowl LI.)
9) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): vs. Cincinnati
I feel very, very ambivalent about this one. But he’s at home, where he’s much better, and the Steelers’ offense looks like it’s slowly rounding into form. Meh.
10) Cam Newton (CAR): @ Chicago
The Bears actually rank in the top half of the league in defense per Football Outsiders and have allowed the ninth fewest points per game to opposing quarterbacks. So Newton doesn’t have a great matchup, he’s on the road, and he’s played two good games out of six this season. But, and this is a big but, he’s running again. Nearly eight times per game over the last three weeks, to be precise. When Newton is hitting those levels on the ground, he’s a QB1 more often than not.
11) Tyrod Taylor (BUF): vs. Tampa Bay
Taylor has struggled thus far, averaging just 13.7 points per game with only one QB1 finish. That’s what happens when you jam a vertical passer into a west coast offense filled with slot receivers.
Regardless, the matchup (and the rest of his season, actually) is a good one. Tampa Bay is allowing the third-most points to opposing quarterbacks, and the third highest adjusted net yards/attempt. Coming off the bye, I think Taylor’s season is about to turn around.
12) Jared Goff (LAR): vs. Arizona (in London)
While Goff’s resurrection has been nice to see, it hasn’t translated to fantasy production. Despite ranking seventh in passing yards, Goff has just one QB1 finish and two multi-touchdown games. The main problem is the Rams are relying on Todd Gurley when they can. On Sunday, they probably can’t. Arizona’s defense crushes ground games but has been much more generous through the air. I mean, they allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns last week. I think Goff can sneak into the top 12.
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Scott Cedar is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Scott, check out his archive and follow him @scedar015.
