Football, real or fantasy, takes a lot of luck to win. Sometimes the ball bounces the wrong way. You have to avoid busts in your draft, avoid injuries during the year, and there’s often very little you can do about any of that.
There’s no better example than Dalvin Cook. He was leading both fantasy owners and Vikings fans to a positive, hope-filled year, like an emerging warrior delivering victory to his tribe. But even the greatest warrior can be taken down by one stray arrow.
What can you do? You’ve got to be lucky to be good.
But you’ve got to be good to be lucky, too. There’s a reason why the Patriots have more Super Bowl wins in the last decade than the Jaguars have playoff appearances. It’s similar to the reason why certain fantasy owners continue to make money year after year, despite the injuries their rosters invariably absorb.
Are you the one who stashed Will Fuller, knowing he was back this week? Or did you trade to acquire DeMarco Murray after one long broken play?
Did you do all you could to buy low on studs like Le’Veon Bell? Or did you sell low on A.J. Green right before Bill Lazor took over play calling?
Fantasy football is like poker. You are bound to take bad, unlucky beats, and you have no control over which hands the universe deals to you. Men have made mansions based solely on their ability to hold or fold paper cards.
So even if you lost Dalvin Cook this week, you don’t stop grinding. You work the wire. You hustle for trades.
You do all that you can to sneak into the playoffs and give yourself a chance to get lucky. You act like a pro.
It’s a long season yet. We’re just a quarter of the way done. There will be plenty more twists and turns coming. More ups, and more downs.
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STOCK UP
Deshaun Watson (QB – HOU)
24 and 41 standard points in his last two outings. The game’s slowing down for Deshaun Watson.
He’s not merely getting comfortable. He’s setting records. He’s tied for most touchdowns in a single game for any NFL rookie, and he smashed the franchise record for most points in a game.
Osweiler’s Texans broke 30 points zero times last year. Watson’s Texans have done it twice in three weeks.
His legs provide a nice floor, and adding Fuller to the mix raises his ceiling. It’s too early to declare him a stud, but he looks the part for now.
Jameis Winston (QB – TB)
He had a respectable fantasy outing on the road versus Minnesota. Then he shredded the Giants at home for 332 yards, three TDs, and 32.5 standard points. No quarterback had exceeded 20 fantasy points against NYG since the start of 2016.
Popular candidate for the third year QB breakout, Winston is living up to his blue-chip billing. He draws the New England Patriots’ last-place defense at home this week.
They’ve allowed 300 yards and multiple touchdowns to every QB they’ve faced this year. Already through his bye, Winston could be a top-five quarterback from here on out.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
Also stock up: the phrase “man crush.” Sean Payton told the media he wanted to cut down on the committee. Let’s get a one-two punch.
Three’s too many. Well. It sure looks like Kamara has cemented himself as a weekly member of that coupling as the most dynamic and versatile player perhaps on the entire offense.
He had 10 receptions for 71 yards, and he’s found the end zone twice in two games! The cheapest member of the backfield now looks like the most valuable. He’s a safe-floor RB2 moving forward.
Ameer Abdullah (RB – DET)
15, 17, 14, 20 — Ameer Abdullah’s rushing attempts week by week this year. He’s added nine receptions to date, as well. OC Jim Bob Cooter loves to play ball-control offense, and he’s finally discovered the value of a running game as a means to that end.
Don’t forget that the Lions beefed up the right side of their offensive line this offseason, and are getting Taylor Decker back soon at left tackle. An explosive talent and bell cow of his offense, playing for a team with a shutdown defense, Abdullah is an RB2 lock this season with top-12 upside.
Chris Hogan (WR – NE)
He’s the overall WR3 in standard leagues in case you weren’t aware, even though he has yet to eclipse 80 yards in a game. Nine red zone targets (second-most in the league) from Tom Brady through four weeks will do that. I would try to sell high (really high) only because TDs are likely to regress, but I wouldn’t be disappointed if no one wanted to dance with me.
Jaron Brown (WR – ARI)
7.3, 8.7, 10.5 — the last three weeks’ standard fantasy output. He has 29 targets over that span and played 93% of snaps on Sunday as J.J. Nelson and John Brown competed for the leftovers. Carson Palmer is putting up a lot of yards and doing his best to push it downfield despite an awful offensive line. You could do a lot worse at WR3.
Charles Clay (TE – BUF)
Sammy Watkins is gone, Robert Woods is gone, Anquan Boldin is gone…somebody had to catch passes on this team. Through sheer volume means he’s going to end up as a top-five tight end this year. Check your waiver wire just in case he has still slipped through the cracks.
Evan Engram (TE – NYG)
It’s October, and the New York Football Giants have two fewer wins than the Jets. The one bright spot for the team is the immediate production from their first-round pick.
He’s broken 40 yards in every game this year which, when you consider both the sorry state of fantasy tight ends and the Giants’ offense, is saying something. Fantasy owners are still sleeping on this rookie: the overall TE7 is still available in a lot of leagues.
STOCK DOWN
Jay Ajayi (RB – MIA)
We said early on that Howard looked to be a bust, but he’s turned things around and looks healthy again. Ajayi, on the other hand, started out strong but has produced very little since his first game. He has only 2.5 and 5.4 standard points in the last two weeks against plus matchups versus the Jets and the Saints.
He had red flags entering the season: preseason concussion, minimal receiving work, small sample size of success that was inflated by a couple blow up games, below average offensive line, playing for a team who was bound to regress in the W-L column.
Despite those warning signs, it was not supposed to be this tough for the tackle-busting bell cow out of Boise. And yet, as the Dolphins’ offense goes, so goes Ajayi. Right now the wheels are spinning in the mud.
I’d try to buy low just because I like the talent, but I don’t know if I could give up anything of real value to acquire him, either. Owners are in a tough spot for now.
Terrance West (RB – BAL)
Alex Collins started for the Ravens, and Terrance West finished with negative seven rushing yards. He’s obsolete and droppable for next week’s best D/ST streamer.
Jarvis Landry (WR – MIA)
DeVante Parker went two to four rounds later in most drafts, and he’s outscored Landry in each of the Dolphins’ three games this season. Landry has never had touchdown upside but was a strong volume play for a quarterback who needed a safety blanket.
He’s a talented guy in his own right, but his fantasy production was largely a function of his situation. Well, the situation has deteriorated. A fourth-round pick was not a good investment.
Martavis Bryant (WR – PIT)
“He was wide open, but Roethlisberger overthrew him on what would have been a long TD.” I’m getting tired of saying this all the time. We worried that he might need to re-adjust to the game.
He looks well adjusted to me — he’s getting open and making plays when he does get the ball. Big Ben just doesn’t look like the guy he used to be. Unfortunately, receivers need good quarterback play to be productive.
We all knew he was boom or bust, so I’m not too surprised or down on him…I just hoped for a little more boom and a little less bust. I’d still keep him in my WR3 slot and hope for a connection on a weekly basis, but it’s getting harder and harder to absorb the duds.
The Steelers would be wise to use him a lot more than they are. But he’ll face the Jaguars’ top pass defense this week. They’re in Pittsburgh, at least.
Speaking of playing at home…it’s worthwhile to note that Roethlisberger has traditionally had one of the most extreme home/road splits of all quarterbacks. It’s no coincidence that Bryant’s one big game came in Week 2 versus the Vikings at home. His three let down games? All on the road.
Though his stock is low, I’m treating him as a buy-low everywhere. He’s got an easier schedule going out, and four of his last six games of the fantasy year come at home (including Week 15 vs. New England). Even if you never start him until home games, he should still be a valuable asset that could be had very cheap right now.
Kyle Rudolph (TE – MIN)
Rudolph led all tight ends in targets last year, but he was used perhaps out of necessity last year — Stefon Diggs was hurt, and Adam Thielen hadn’t emerged. This year? He’s blocking well, at least.
Bradford should hopefully be back soon, which can’t hurt, and losing Cook might force them to lean on the passing game more. Still, Diggs and Thielen seem to have things under control. I would drop him for Clay or Engram if I could.
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Nick Zychowicz is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, follow him @NJZychowicz.
