FREE DraftKings Pick ‘EM Contest: Week 5

Oct 6, 2017

The Panthers’ top 10 run defense could force Matthew Stafford and the Lions to focus on moving the ball through the air

Tier 1

Matthew Stafford (DET vs. CAR)
Expert Consensus: QB #6
Stafford took a back seat to the Detroit rushing attack in Week 4, as he completed 19 of 31 passes for just 209 yards. The Panthers are in town this week, which presents a difficult situation for Stafford again. On one hand, the Panthers have been pretty good against the run, but up until last week, they’ve been pretty good against the pass as well.

They did allow three passing touchdowns in Week 3 to Drew Brees, but they gave up just 220 yards through the air. The total on this game is 42.5 right now, so points could be at a premium in this one. That being said, if the Lions are going to produce anything, I think it comes via the expensive arm of Stafford.

Carson Wentz (PHI vs. ARI)
Expert Consensus: QB #8
The Cardinals have been better against the pass after a rough start in Week 1 against the Lions, as they’ve surrendered just two passing scores in three games since their opener. I don’t like this matchup for Wentz, but much like Stafford above, the Eagles’ rushing attack faces a similarly tough matchup.

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Tier 2

Le’Veon Bell (PIT vs. JAX)
Expert Consensus: RB #1
Bell finally got things going in Week 4, and he stands to continue his production in Week 5. This is an awful matchup for the Steelers’ passing game, while the matchup sets up well for the star running back.

The Jaguars are allowing 166 rushing yards and nearly one and a half rushing touchdowns per game this season, which was punctuated by a thrashing at the hands of the Jets’ running backs in Week 4. Bell is the consensus top running back this week and for very good reason.

Antonio Brown (PIT vs. JAX)
Expert Consensus: WR #4
Brown checks in outside the consensus top three this week, as he will be dealing with a difficult matchup this week. The Jaguars are allowing an average of just 167 passing yards and less than one touchdown per game, so it might make sense to look elsewhere in this tier.

Tier 3

Larry Fitzgerald (ARI @ PHI)
Expert Consensus: WR #9
The Eagles have struggled against the pass through four weeks, and it’s gotten particularly bad over the last two games. They’ve allowed at least 347 passing yards in two straight, while they’ve surrendered five total passing touchdowns over that span. The Cardinals are struggling to protect Carson Palmer so far thus far, but Fitzgerald continues to command a ton of looks within in this offense.

Carlos Hyde (SF @ IND)
Expert Consensus: RB #7
The Colts have allowed four rushing touchdowns and over 111 yards rushing in consecutive contests, and they will now be forced to deal with Hyde in Week 5. Barring any setbacks with Hyde’s injury situation, he should be able to take advantage of a plus matchup on the road this week.

Tier 4

Golden Tate (DET vs. CAR)
Expert Consensus: WR #14
Tate has been inconsistent to start the season, which coincides with drastic spikes in volume. He’s scored less than seven DraftKings points in two games, which saw him receive nine total looks over those two contests.

In Weeks 1 and 3, he scored at least 18.8 DraftKings points, with him seeing 23 targets during those games. As I noted earlier, this is a less than desirable matchup overall, but if the Lions are going to score I think it comes via the pass in Week 5.

Zach Ertz (PHI vs. ARI)
Expert Consensus: TE #2
Tight end is tricky, which likely led to Ertz being a top three consensus option by default this week. The Cardinals have been tough on tight ends this season, as they’ve allowed no receiving touchdowns to the position through four weeks.

The bright spot to focus on here is the volume that Ertz is receiving, as he continues to be a primary target for Carson Wentz. Ertz has scored at least 13.1 DKP in all four games, making him a decent option despite the tougher matchup.

Tier 5

Alshon Jeffery (PHI vs. ARI)
Expert Consensus: WR #22
There’s not much to like about this matchup for Jeffery, as he will likely be seeing plenty of Patrick Peterson this week. That being said, he is the highest ranked receiver in terms of expert consensus rank, as the other options aren’t much more appealing this week.

Duke Johnson (CLE vs. NYJ)
Expert Consensus: RB #14
This is a plus matchup for the Browns at home against the Jets, and it’s hard to ignore what Johnson brings to the table on a weekly basis. He’s received 17 targets in the passing game over the past two weeks, and he’s hauled in 15 of those while registering a touchdown in each game. That kind of volume is tough to overlook, and he could be an extremely valuable piece of your fantasy lineups this week.

Tier 6

Ameer Abdullah (DET vs. CAR)
Expert Consensus: RB #16
Abdullah looks to be ready to go in Week 5, despite being held out for most of the fourth quarter in Week 4 after he injured his ankle. He’s coming off of his best performance of the young season, as he scored nearly 20 DKP against the Vikings. The Panthers have been tough against the run this season, so I would probably look elsewhere in the final tier.

Allen Hurns (JAX @ PIT)
Expert Consensus: WR #34
You’re hoping for garbage time here for Hurns, as the matchup is an ugly one. The Jaguars are more than a touchdown underdog on the road, so that could very well wind up being the case against the Steelers in Week 5.

Hurns is coming off of a 10 target game in Week 4, but he only caught four of those in a loss to the Jets. Opportunities should continue to be there with Allen Robinson out of the picture, but the Jaguars are a run-first team so that production could be volatile.

Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.

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