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Week 6 Primer: Analyzing All 14 Games (Fantasy Football)

Week 6 Primer: Analyzing All 14 Games (Fantasy Football)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals

Total: 44.5
Line: TB by 2.0

This game is interesting to look at because the Cardinals have been a much better team at home over the last year and a half. They have played 10 games at home since the start of 2016 and have allowed just 19.0 points per game there, while allowing a much higher 27.0 points per game on the road. It’s something to keep in mind when projecting the Bucs to score a ton of points, as just two of the last 10 opponents in Arizona have scored more than 23 points. The Bucs are coming off 10 days of rest, which plays into it as well, so there are a lot of variables to be taken into consideration. The injuries the Bucs are dealing with are worth monitoring, as they have missed starting linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander, as well as safety T.J. Ward.

QBs: It was supposed to be a big week for Jameis Winston against the Patriots, and although the end result wasn’t bad, it wasn’t a pretty performance. The matchup with the Cardinals is interesting considering they defend opposing No. 1 wide receivers and tight ends very well, Winston’s favorite targets. The Cardinals have been really hit-or-miss against quarterbacks, allowing 22.9 or more points on three separate occasions, and holding the other two quarterbacks to less than nine fantasy points. This game taking place in Arizona has me somewhat concerned, but not enough to completely fade Winston. Consider him a high-end QB2 for this game who isn’t as safe as you’d think. Carson Palmer was sacked just one time against the Eagles, but it didn’t result in a big fantasy game with 291 yards and one touchdown while throwing the ball 44 times. Getting John Brown and J.J. Nelson back to full health definitely helps and the Bucs are a team you can pass on. Prior to Tom Brady‘s mediocre performance, the Bucs had allowed two top-four performances to Eli Manning and Case Keenum. Considering their lack of run game (even with Adrian Peterson), Palmer should be a borderline QB1 this week.

RBs: It was good to see Doug Martin return to a workhorse role last week, something you should have expected given the lack of performances out of Jacquizz Rodgers and Charles Sims through the first couple weeks. This is not a week to get excited about playing him, though, as the Cardinals run defense is as good as it’s ever been, allowing just 3.29 yards per carry and two touchdowns through five games. His holes won’t be as large as they were against the Patriots in Week 5, so I wouldn’t expect anything more than RB2 numbers in this game. Now that Martin is back, you don’t want to consider any of the other Bucs running backs, as they’ll be limited to a handful of touches each week. The Cardinals attempted to right their running back woes by… going out and trading for Adrian Peterson. No, this is not a joke. While I said before the season that we couldn’t just write off Peterson, he’s done. If he was anything close to the player he was in the past, no team would be trading him. Behind a Cardinals line that may be without three offensive linemen, you don’t want to play him as anything more than a RB4. The Bucs defense has been no joke anyways, allowing just one touchdown and 3.27 yards per carry through four games. They have allowed 230 yards and one touchdown through the air, though, putting Andre Ellington square in the RB2/3 conversation for PPR leagues. He’s seen 40 targets through five games, which is the most among running backs, including 37 targets through the last four games. Considering he’s doing very well with those targets, there’s no reason to stop targeting him. There’ve been three running backs who have caught five or more passes against the Bucs, too. Don’t get worried about Peterson’s effect on Ellington’s role.

WRs: After a few tough matchups in back-to-back weeks, Mike Evans now gets to matchup with Patrick Peterson this week, which is far from ideal. He’s held Marvin Jones to 2/37/1, T.Y. Hilton to 4/49/0, Dez Bryant to 2/12/1, Pierre Garcon to 4/36/0, and then Alshon Jeffery to 3/31/0. With that being said, if they slide Evans into the slot, they can evade Peterson’s coverage, which is how Bryant got his touchdown. Evans can never be benched, but limit his expectations, as he totaled just six catches for 70 yards on 18 targets against Peterson last year, though he did score in that game. Evans is more of a low-end WR1 than the elite WR1 he is most of the time. DeSean Jackson was apparently dinged up at the end of last week’s game, so pay attention to his status leading up to this game, because he’s a great start if healthy and on the field. We’ve now seen Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Brice Butler, Torrey Smith, and Nelson Agholor combine to score six touchdowns against the Cardinals this year. What do they all have in common? They aren’t their team’s No. 1 option. Jackson will see a lot of Justin Bethel while playing indoors this week, making him a low-end WR2 with big upside. Bethel is allowing over 18 yards per reception in his coverage. Adam Humphries isn’t even the worst option, as Tyrann Mathieu isn’t the same player he once was, but he’s just a limited upside WR4 in PPR leagues. Jackson is the one who most interests me on the Bucs this week. Larry Fitzgerald continues to be pretty mediocre outside of the one game against the Cowboys, but still a serviceable WR2/3 option in PPR formats. After all, it’s not like there are many wide receivers who have been extremely consistent. He should be in play as a WR2 this week against a Bucs team that has struggled to defend wide receivers over the middle of the field, which is where Fitzgerald operates. Robert McClain is the one the Bucs have asked to defend the slot, which is a good thing for Fitzgerald. McClain has allowed 16/173/1 on 19 targets in coverage this year. Fitzgerald is worth cash-game consideration. John Brown has a much tougher matchup with Brent Grimes, who is the Bucs best cornerback that has allowed just 11.1 yards per reception in coverage. Brown is still working on getting back in touch with Palmer, as he’s caught just nine of 23 targets this year. Brown is just a low-end WR4 option this week in a tougher matchup. It seems like Jaron Brown and J.J. Nelson are going to hurt/cancel each other’s upside, as they eat into each other’s snaps, but Brown is the one it seems the Cardinals prefer. He’s also the one who is less reliant on the big play to produce. Brown should be considered a WR4-type option, while Nelson is just a high-upside WR5 going forward.

TEs: It was a rough week for the Bucs tight ends last week, as Cameron Brate dropped a touchdown (though he caught one later) and O.J. Howard had some miscommunication issues with Winston. Howard continues to play more snaps, but he’s considered a blocker first, receiver second. Brate is the one with the most value here (obviously), though this isn’t a week to play him if you have a viable alternative option. Yes, Zach Ertz was able to post a solid game against them last week, but he’s defied matchup this year, whereas Brate hasn’t. The Cardinals just might be the best team in the league at defending tight ends, leaving Brate as just a TE2 in this matchup who would need to score in order to get anywhere near TE1 value. Jermaine Gresham shouldn’t be considered as a fantasy option, either, as he has seen declining targets the last two weeks with the additions of a healthy John Brown and J.J. Nelson to the wide receiver group.

Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 44.0
Line: JAX by 2.5

It was back to being the Rams last week, as they scored just 10 points against the struggling Seahawks defense that was without one of their best pass-rushers. The play-calling by them was atrocious for the first time all year, with a pass-to-run ratio of 47 to 14, and that’s not including the sacks (two) which were designed pass plays. Now they’ll have to head out to Jacksonville to play a Jaguars team that has been dominant at times this year. The area they struggle, though, is against the run, where the Rams may want to fix the whole pass-to-run ratio thing. Both teams are relatively healthy as we enter Week 6.

QBs: This is not a week to trust Jared Goff, in case you didn’t know. While he was particularly bad last week against the Seahawks, he plays an even tougher defense this week while on the road. Here are the quarterback finishes against the Jaguars through five games: QB27, QB19, QB30, QB30, and QB28. Keep in mind that the QB19 finish was Marcus Mariota, who finished there because he ran for 24 yards. He totaled just 215 yards and one touchdown through the air. Goff isn’t even a good option in 2QB leagues this week. On the flip side of the ball, Blake Bortles isn’t much better simply because of how they are using him. Did you know he threw the ball just 14 times for 95 yards last week? He had fewer pass attempts than 15 running backs had carries in Week 5. The Rams aren’t a lights out defense or anything like that, but they struggle against opposing run games, an area where the Jaguars succeed. Look for the Jaguars to hide Bortles once again, making him a low-end QB2 option even in what looks like a decent matchup.

RBs: This is the game of the workhorse running backs, as you have Todd Gurley and Leonard Fournette, who have both averaged 24.4 touches per game through five weeks. Oddly enough, both of these teams struggle to defend the run. The Jaguars have now allowed opponents to total 123 or more rushing yards in three of their five games, including multiple rushing touchdowns in two of them. The Steelers failed to properly run the ball last week against them, similar to what the Rams did against the Seahawks. Don’t think they make that mistake again, making Gurley a rock-solid RB1. For whatever reason, they also chose not to use him in the passing game very much, but we’re going to chalk that up as simply bad play-calling for one game. The Jaguars haven’t made the mistake of not using Fournette enough to this point, as he has at least 16 touches in every game, including 24 or more carries in three games. The Rams have allowed 599 rushing yards on 132 carries (4.54 YPC) so far this season, including six rushing touchdowns. It’s no wonder they’ve allowed three top-six running back performances. Fournette is an every-week RB1 with his talent and the volume he’s seeing. He’s overcome exactly zero other talent on the offense to become the No. 3 running back in fantasy football.

WRs: There isn’t much to look at with either team at wide receiver in this game. Sammy Watkins has been non-existent outside of a cake matchup against the 49ers, seeing only 13 targets in the other four games combined, which have amounted to just 8/105/0. That is #NotGood. Head coach Sean McVay apparently talked with Watkins after Week 5’s loss, saying that they need to get more creative in getting him the ball. That’s going to be extremely hard to do against the Jaguars who have the best cornerback duo in the league with Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. He’s not to be trusted this week as anything more than a WR4 who’d need a big play to do much of anything, unless they move him into the slot where he can evade the coverage of Ramsey and Bouye. Cooper Kupp occupies the slot the majority of the time, and his matchup with Aaron Colvin is the best of the Rams bunch. It’s tough to rely on him as anything more than a WR4, though, as it’s hard to see Goff throwing a whole lot in this game. Robert Woods actually has one more target than Watkins on the season, but he’s in a similar boat on the perimeter, making him unplayable. The Jaguars wide receiving corps is a step above the Bears, but it doesn’t appear like it on paper. Marqise Lee doesn’t have the benefit of Allen Robinson taking away No. 1 cornerbacks anymore and his production is suffering because of it. He’s leading the team with 30 targets, but he’s turned them into just 15 catches for 208 scoreless yards. He’ll see a mix of Trumaine Johnson and Kayvon Webster in coverage, which is not the most daunting of duos, but when you’re seeing just three or four targets per game (what Lee has the last two weeks), it’s tough to do much of anything. No wide receiver has finished as a WR1 against them this year, and just two wide receivers have finished top-36 in any given week. Lee is just a mediocre WR4/5 option until he starts seeing an uptick in targets. Allen Hurns has scored two touchdowns on the season, but he’s in the same bad matchup as Lee with a low-volume passing attack. Lee is the preferred one of the two, though.

TEs: The Rams appear content with Tyler Higbee as their primary tight end right now, as rookie Gerald Everett has played just 31.6 percent of the snaps to this point, while Higbee has been on the field for just over 77 percent of them. Higbee is also coming off his best game where he saw eight targets and hauled in four of them for 98 yards. The matchup against the Jaguars isn’t a great one, as they have allowed just one tight end to finish with top-12 numbers, and that was Delanie Walker who did because of a rushing touchdown. He only totaled four catches for 61 yards otherwise. Higbee is on the TE2 radar with the increased workload as of late (14 targets the last two weeks), but he’s not a recommended streamer in standard leagues. Outside of his three-touchdown performance against the Ravens in London, Marcedes Lewis has combined for 10 targets in the other four games. Even worse, he’s caught just one of those ten targets for 14 yards. He’s not a fantasy option against the Rams.

Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Total: N/A
Line: N/A

It seems like there are a lot of games in the afternoon/night slate that have questions about who will and won’t play, and this game is no different. It seems like the Raiders are set on Derek Carr returning, so we have to approach it that way, but make sure you return to check out rankings on Sunday morning for all players involved. The Chargers aren’t a great football team right now and they’re struggling to stop the run, which is never a good thing. Their defense has now allowed at least 19 points in every game and that’s despite playing against Jay Cutler and Eli Manning in two of their games. The Raiders are coming off a bad home loss to the Ravens, and this is a game that’s turned into a must-win.

QBs: Outside of one bad game against the Chiefs, Philip Rivers hasn’t been that bad this year. If you were to remove that game, he’d have thrown for 282 yards per game with a total of nine touchdowns and two interceptions. He’s throwing the ball a lot with Melvin Gordon failing to do much from a yards per carry standpoint and is about to get their first-round draft pick Mike Williams back into the lineup, which can only help. The Raiders have allowed three quarterbacks to finish with at least 17.7 fantasy points thus far, and the only two who didn’t were Joe Flacco and Trevor Siemian, who each threw the ball just 26 times. Rivers isn’t a quarterback you’ll see throw fewer than 35 times most weeks, so get him into lineups as a back-end QB1 for this contest. Even if Derek Carr is back on the field for this game, I wouldn’t trust him to post great numbers or anything, as he is returning from a fractured vertebra. It’s not as if the Raiders were putting much on his shoulders, anyway, as he never threw the ball more than 32 times in any of the four games he played. The two games he did do well in came against the Titans and Jets, so we don’t really have much to go off. The Chargers have allowed just one quarterback to score more than 15 fantasy points this year and that was Trevor Siemian way back in Week 1. Look for the Raiders to pound the ball on the ground with Lynch, making Carr a very risky QB2.

RBs: Despite struggling to get things done on the ground, Melvin Gordon continues to score a lot of fantasy points. He caught two touchdowns against the Giants, enough to finish as the RB1 for the week. He’s averaging just 3.7 yards per carry (now the third year in a row with a sub-4.0 YPC), but is getting over 18 touches per game and all goal-line work in this offense, similar to last year. The Raiders have allowed at least one running back in each of their last four games to finish as a top-22 option in PPR formats, including Javorius Allen‘s RB6 finish last week. They have still yet to allow a running back 100 yards on the ground, but they’ve allowed each of the last three teams to accumulate at least 114 yards on the ground. We know Gordon dominates the work, so he should be in line for RB1-type numbers once again this week. There were quite a few people telling me that I made a good call on Marshawn Lynch last week, but I don’t feel great about it. They were supposed to win that game, allowing him to be in a clock-killing position, but that never happened. The Chargers just won their first game, so we should be looking for a similar situation this week with Lynch, though nothing is guaranteed. The Chargers have turned back into the team they were two years ago, allowing 161.2 rushing yards per game, easily the most in the league. They have also allowed a rushing touchdown in each of their last three games, so trot Lynch out there as a borderline RB1. DeAndre Washington was inactive last week, so Jalen Richard got nine touches, which was a season-high for him. Should Washington be inactive again, Richard can be used as a desperation RB4, because the Raiders should be able to rack up some attempts in this game and Lynch can’t take all of them.

WRs: It’s been a great season for Keenan Allen from a targets standpoint, as he’s seen at least nine targets in every game, though he’s missing a true breakout performance. He’s totaled at least 61 yards or a touchdown in every game, though, making him a legit every-week WR2. Even though slot cornerback T.J. Carrie has played better than expected, it’s hard not to like Allen in this matchup with all the volume he’s been getting. Tyrell Williams probably has the best matchup among the wide receivers, as the Raiders have been prone to big plays over the last two years. He torched them for 117 yards and a touchdown last year in their first meeting last year, but then totaled just 20 yards in the second game when Rivers was playing poorly. I’d trot him out in lineups as a risk/reward high-end WR4 this week and expect results. Travis Benjamin isn’t a bad play, either, for the same exact reasons, but I’d prefer Williams because he has the slight target advantage. He’s more of the high-risk/reward WR4/5. It’s the story that’s broke my Twitter account – Amari Cooper has been a bust. There’s no way to deny that, though I did tell you not to play him last week. It’s tough not to bench him again until we see him get right, as he’s got another tough matchup with the Chargers Casey Hayward. It’s unknown on whether or not they’ll use him to shadow Cooper, especially with the way he’s been struggling and Michael Crabtree has been lighting up scoreboards, they may just stay in zone the majority of the time. Consider Cooper a WR4 for the time being, as he’ll turn it around at some point, though it may not be this week. The talent is simply too good not to. Crabtree proved he could get it done with E.J. Manuel last week, which makes him playable with anyone. He’s a solid WR2 until Cooper turns things around, though he’s typically a little more reliant on the touchdowns, which he seemingly gets at will. Seth Roberts and Cordarrelle Patterson are sharing No. 3 duties, making neither of them options in season-long leagues, especially in a game where we don’t expect Carr to throw a lot.

TEs: It’s happening, guys. Hunter Henry made his way up to 76 percent of the snaps last week, and has now officially played more snaps than Antonio Gates this year. Gates still has two more targets on the season, but Henry has been much more efficient, hence the move to him in snaps. The Raiders really struggle to keep tight ends in check, too, as they have allowed three of them to finish as top-eight options while scoring 14.6 or more PPR points. The only two who didn’t were the non-athletic combo of Will Tye and 73-year-old Ben Watson. Henry is going to be an every-week TE1 if he continues to get those type of snaps, while Gates is just a touchdown-dependent TE2 – start Henry this week. Jared Cook has been getting the targets (31 on the year), but his production doesn’t match that. He’s failed to top 56 yards on the season and has only caught one touchdown, which came against the Redskins, who are literally one of the three worst teams at defending tight ends. The Chargers have been stellar at defending opposing tight ends, allowing only Zach Ertz to total more than six PPR points, and they have played against Travis Kelce and Evan Engram. Keep Cook out of fantasy lineups this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

Total: 46.0
Line: KC by 4.0

This may have been a game to be excited about back when the season began, but it’s hard to see the Steelers competing after losing games to the Bears and Jaguars over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have surprised a lot of people with their 5-0 start, while showing no signs of slowing down. It should also be noted that Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City is known to be one of the toughest places in the NFL to play. Both the Eagles and Redskins scored exactly 20 points while playing there this year, which was a season-low for the Eagles and the second-lowest total of the season for the Redskins. The biggest injury on the Steelers side of the ball is right tackle Marcus Gilbert, who hasn’t played since Week 2. The Chiefs are no strangers to injuries, as they have lost Chris Conley, Eric Berry, and Spencer Ware for the season. It’s gotten quite ugly for them at wide receiver.

QBs: I’m not going to go off the deep-end with Ben Roethlisberger after one really bad performance against a top-five defense in the NFL like some, and it’s quite possible that game awakened what might be a glaring problem – he cannot continue to target Antonio Brown relentlessly when he’s being double-covered. That’s the type of game that can make a veteran like him re-evaluate what went wrong, though the gameplan was absolute garbage. It’s not the same Chiefs defense we’ve come to know the last few years, as they have allowed three top-10 performances to quarterbacks this year. Despite that, Roethlisberger should be benched if you have an option you are considering over him due to his struggles on the road over the last three years where he’s averaged just over one touchdown pass. He destroyed them for 300 yards and five touchdowns at home last year, but we’ve already figured out that he’s simply not the same quarterback on the road. He’s a QB2 this week with some upside. Alex Smith sits atop the fantasy leaderboard after five weeks, and as I said on our live Q&A on Sunday morning, he’s made me a fan. But here’s the thing – you can only take away so many options before it starts to affect his success. Losing Jeremy Maclin turned out to be okay, then Spencer Ware, then Chris Conley, and now Travis Kelce is in the concussion protocol. Should Kelce miss this game, Smith is going to be in trouble against a Steelers defense that has allowed just one quarterback to finish higher than QB25 and that was DeShone Kizer who only got there because he ran for a touchdown. No quarterback has been able to throw for more than 235 yards against them, though their competition has been less than stellar. If Kelce plays, Smith is a high-end QB2. If Kelce is out, Smith is just a bottom-end QB2.

RBs: Whatever the Steelers did in Week 5, it’s quite obvious to never do that again, right? When I say that, I’m referencing handing off the ball to Le’Veon Bell just 15 times against one of the league’s worst run defenses. The Chiefs certainly aren’t one of the league’s worst, but Bell is going to get the ball a ton on the road. There has been just one running back to play against the Chiefs and finish better than the RB15 and that was Mike Gillislee way back in Week 1 when he scored three touchdowns. They have still yet to allow a running back more than 79 yards on the ground, which doesn’t seem great when searching for a tournament ceiling with Bell. He’s obviously being played in season-long leagues as an RB1, but don’t think he’s worth his price of admission in tournaments this week. You have to have some exposure if you’re playing multiple lineups, but don’t overexpose yourself or go all-in. Kareem Hunt may be the better play this week, as the Steelers have really struggled to slow down running backs over their last four games. The combination of Dalvin Cook, Jordan Howard, Alex Collins, and Leonard Fournette combined for 465 yards on 72 carries (6.46 YPC) and four touchdowns. Hunt has seen increased carries in each of the last four weeks, topping out at 29 carries against the Texans last week. He’s now hit the 100-rushing yard bonus in four of five games, and it’d be shocking if he didn’t in this game, especially considering the lack of receiving options on the team right now. Hunt is an elite play at running back this week and might just be the RB1 for the week. Don’t chase Charcandrick West touchdowns, that’ll end badly for all parties involved.

WRs: Antonio Brown must be happy after last week when he saw 18 targets against the Jaguars, right? It didn’t end well for the team, but it did for fantasy owners. Bryant now has 64 targets on the young season, which is more than double the next highest wide receiver (Martavis Bryant) on the team. His matchup this week will be one to target, as the Chiefs have struggled against perimeter wide receivers this year. Over the last four games, they have now allowed Alshon Jeffery 92 yards and a touchdown, Travis Benjamin 105 yards, Terrelle Pryor 70 yards and a touchdown, and then Deandre Hopkins 52 yards and three touchdowns last week. In fact, the Chiefs have allowed nine wide receivers to finish as top-36 options, which is basically two per game. The concerns about Roethlisberger on the road are real, but not enough to scare me off Brown, who is an elite WR1 play. Bryant is not a bad play himself, as he’ll see the majority of Terrance Mitchell, who has been continually beat in coverage this year, allowing 18.0 yards per reception, with almost all of it coming through the air (not after the catch). It’s tough trusting him as anything more than a high-upside WR3 with how disappointing he’s been, but when you look at the other players on your team, ask yourself, “Is the risk as great as the reward?” JuJu Smith-Schuster is now the clear-cut No. 3 wide receiver in the offense, but he’s not a great option if we’re counting on Roethlisberger to be the quarterback he’s been on the road for the last three years. He’s worth stashing in fantasy leagues and if you’re desperate, you could do worse than someone who has seen 16 targets over the last three weeks. Fun fact: he’s also seen his yardage total rise every single week. The Chiefs wide receiving corps leaves a lot to be desired, so Tyreek Hill is going to see a lot of work. He’s only got 34 targets on the season to this point, maxing out at eight in any one game, which doesn’t ever give you safety when inserting him into lineups. The Steelers have somehow still yet to allow a wide receiver to total more than 55 yards against them, though the competition hasn’t been what I’d call great. Hill moves all over the formation, but it’d be wise for the Chiefs to work him over to Joe Haden’s side of the field, as he’s the slowest cornerback in that secondary at this point in his career. With the expected volume, Hill is a WR2 this week who comes with massive upside. Albert Wilson is going to see an extended role with Chris Conley out for the season, but he’s someone who has to make plays consistently in order to deliver value, which isn’t likely in this matchup. He’s just a WR5 option, though slightly better in PPR leagues. Demarcus Robinson is the wide receiver who is likely to fill some of the lost snaps, and he’s got good size (6-1, 205 pounds), but we’ll want to see him do something before trusting him in fantasy leagues.

TEs: Since Jesse James caught two touchdowns in the opener, he’s caught 12 passes for 110 yards and no touchdowns. It’s really odd the Steelers haven’t involved Vance McDonald, who they traded for right before the start of the season. We expected him to take some time to learn the playbook, but there’s now been plenty of time. To this point, he’s played just 28 percent of the snaps. The Chiefs are not a team you want to play a tight end against anyway, so it doesn’t matter much here. You all know that if Travis Kelce plays, you play him. The Steelers have not allowed a tight end to finish in the top-12 for any given week, but here’s their competition: Seth DeValve, Kyle Rudolph, Zach Miller, Ben Watson, and Marcedes Lewis. With Conley out for the year, Kelce should be getting safer and safer to play as a high-floor option in DFS, something that’s been an issue with him in the past. Pay attention to his status in the concussion protocol, because he’s a must-play if he’s on the field.

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