New York Giants at Denver Broncos

Total: 39.5
Line: DEN by 11.5

So, let’s do the math here… If the Broncos are favored by 11.5 and the total is just 39.5, what does that make the Giants implied team total? The answer would be exactly 14 points. That’s not great, Bob. After losing Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall, it’s hard to project this Giants offense for much of anything going forward. Their offensive line is brutal, quarterback is on the downslope of his career, and they haven’t been able to get their ground game going. Meanwhile, the Broncos are coming off their bye week and well rested. This one seems too easy.

QBs: So, Eli Manning was barely a streaming option in good matchups with Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall. It’s hard to envision any scenario that would make you want to play Manning this week, as he may also be without Sterling Shepard, who is in a walking boot as of the time I’m writing this. The Broncos aren’t a team to target regardless, so go ahead and bench Manning. Some will think to start Trevor Siemian coming off the bye week, but you shouldn’t be one of them. If the Broncos are smart, you beat the Giants on the ground, not through the air. Philip Rivers had a lot of positives in his matchups against the Giants last week, whereas Siemian really doesn’t. Look for them to run the ball a lot and just try to walk away with a win. Siemian is just a low-ceiling QB2 in this matchup.

RBs: It’s going to be hard to trust anyone in this Giants backfield and this week is no different. In fact, I don’t think any of them are even worth a flex spot against the Broncos, who have held the combination of Ezekiel Elliott, LeSean McCoy, and Marshawn Lynch to 41 yards on 32 carries (1.28 YPC) over their last three games. No, that’s not a typo. If you have Wayne Gallman or Orleans Darkwa, keep them on the bench this week. Shane Vereen is definitely in play in PPR leagues, as he’ll be asked to play an increased role with the wide receiver injuries. There have been three running backs who have caught at least four passes against them, too, so look at Vereen as a semi-safe floor RB3/4 option in PPR leagues. C.J. Anderson should be ready for a big workload against the Giants, who have allowed opponents at least 99 rushing yards in every contest this year, including 171 to the Eagles back in Week 3. They’re allowing 4.47 yards per carry on the season and seem to be getting worse as the team continues to lose. Outside of the one game against the Bills, Anderson has totaled at least 20 carries in every game, making him a must-play in this matchup. I’d be surprised if he didn’t finish as a low-end RB1. Jamaal Charles should also get an extended look in this game, as he’s averaged nine touches per game to this point. I’d expect that number to be closer to 12 in this game, making him an RB4/flex-type option for those who have bye week issues.

WRs: It’s more than likely we see Roger Lewis out there as the No. 1 wide receiver for the Giants this week, making it easy to fade all Giants wide receivers in what was a tough matchup to begin with. Seriously, don’t play any Giants wide receivers in Denver. They have still yet to allow a wide receiver to reach 65 yards this year. Demaryius Thomas is just a name-brand WR3 in fantasy football nowadays, and one who doesn’t come with a whole lot of upside. The question is whether or not the Giants view him as someone that Janoris Jenkins should shadow in coverage. I’d say that Emmanuel Sanders is the more dangerous one at this point, so it’s likely that the Giants just let Jenkins stick to RCB, where he traditionally plays when he’s not shadowing. That would match him up with Thomas more, but he’d ultimately see both of them in coverage. Consider Thomas a WR3 who can post WR2 numbers if he doesn’t get shadowed by Jenkins. Sanders is in a similar boat, but I’d put him slightly higher, because he presents at least some touchdown upside. Thomas has scored exactly zero touchdowns in his last 10 games, while Sanders has scored four touchdowns in his last 10 games. It also doesn’t help that Sanders and Bennie Fowler have combined for eight red zone targets, while Thomas has just one. Fowler is not someone you want to play due to the low-expected passing volume, though it helps that Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is going to be suspended by the team.

TEs: If there is one player to consider on the Giants roster, it’s Evan Engram, as he’s going to see a ton of targets going forward. He has already seen 34 targets, which ranks No. 4 among tight ends, behind only Zach Ertz, Jason Witten, and Travis Kelce. The Broncos have struggled at defending tight ends to this point, too, allowing 24/245/2 on just 33 targets to them. The lack of playmakers around him is definitely concerning, but not enough to take him out of the TE1 conversation. If Manning throws a touchdown in this game, my money would be on Engram. The Broncos have not really given one tight end the primary role, as both A.J. Derby and Virgil Green are both playing a decent amount of snaps. Derby is the better talent and has seen more targets, but Green has played 54 more snaps than him. It’s disappointing because the Giants are brutal against tight ends and have allowed six different tight ends to finish as top-12 options. They’ve only played five games. If you’re betting on one, it should be Derby. He’s on the streaming radar and could make for a very low-owned tournament option.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Total: N/A
Line: N/A

This is where things get dicey, because we have no idea whether or not Marcus Mariota will play on Monday night and likely won’t have any indication by the start of games on Sunday. But seeing that we need to prepare for both situations, that’s exactly what we’ll do. The Titans have looked like a team that lost its way over the last few weeks, not running the ball well and playing horrendous defense. The Colts game should present them an opportunity to do what they do best, control the ball and the clock, regardless of who is under center. Meanwhile, the Colts are going to be without Andrew Luck for a sixth straight game, making their offense a lot less potent. This is not the offensive battle that the NFL had in mind when they scheduled this game.

QBs: This is actually a great opportunity for you to stream Jacoby Brissett if you have Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton, or Tyrod Taylor on a bye this week. The Titans have allowed three quarterbacks to finish as top-eight options against them, including two of them to finish top-two. Those quarterbacks were Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson, both mobile quarterbacks, similar to Brissett, who has now scored at least 18 fantasy points in two of the last three weeks. The Titans run a lot of man coverage, which allows mobile quarterbacks to succeed, due to the defensive backs having their backs turned to the quarterback. Brissett is a solid-floor QB2 in fantasy leagues this week who could sneak his way into the top-12. If Matt Cassel is starting, you don’t want any of that. He averaged just 4.4 yards per attempt against a Dolphins defense that had allowed over 8.0 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks coming in. The Colts aren’t much better, having allowed 8.3 yards per attempt thus far, including eight passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns through five games. In fact, they haven’t allowed a quarterback less than 15.9 fantasy points in any game, and that includes DeShone Kizer and Brian Hoyer. Still, Cassel is just an option in 2QB leagues. If Mariota should play (don’t think he does), consider him as a high-risk, high-reward QB1 in a great matchup.

RBs: It was something I said throughout the offseason – the Colts simply cannot afford to have Frank Gore continue to drag this offense into the gutter with his 3.2 yards per carry that offers zero splash-play potential. Since joining the Colts, he’s averaged just 3.73 yards per carry and scored 12 touchdowns on 598 carries. Marlon Mack offers the splash-plays they need and should get more involved as the weeks go on. With that being said, you really don’t want to play either of them this week against the Titans, who have done one thing right for the majority of this season, and that’s stop the run. No team has been able to average 4.0 yards per carry against them and just two have scored. This goes along with how they’ve played the last two years, allowing just six rushing touchdowns in each season. Gore is just a low-upside RB4/5 option who should be on benches. Mack at least offers you one-play upside, though this matchup will be tough to get it. He’s just a desperation RB4. DeMarco Murray‘s total stat line says he’s averaging 4.9 yards per carry, but if you looked at his body of work without his 75-yard touchdown run against the Texans, he’s averaged just 3.6 yards per carry and hasn’t scored a touchdown. It’s only a matter of time before the Titans turn to Derrick Henry. Until that happens, Murray should continue to see 12-15 carries per game, making him an RB2 in fantasy. The Colts have been better than expected against the run, allowing just 3.63 yards per carry on the season, though they have allowed four touchdowns. They have also allowed at least 43 receiving yards to running backs in four of five games, which is where Murray has a clear edge over Henry. Consider Murray a high-end RB2 in this game who should find the end zone. Henry will have better days as the season goes on, but just 10 carries over the last two weeks doesn’t make me think it’s any time soon. He’s just an RB4/5 in fantasy right now.

WRs: There have been a few predictable times to use T.Y. Hilton this season, like against the Browns and 49ers. This would be another one of those games where you’ll want to insert him into your lineup as a WR2 with upside for more. The Titans secondary has been the weak point that teams often attack, as they have now allowed eight wide receivers to post top-24 performances, including five of them to finish as WR1’s. The combination of Adoree Jackson and Brice McCain was so bad that they benched McCain for LeShaun Sims, a fifth-round pick from last year who has already allowed two touchdowns in coverage. In fact, there have been just six of 21 passes thrown his way that have not been completed. Sims is a bigger cornerback (6-0, 203 pounds) who runs a 4.53-second 40-yard dash. This should be a good game for Hilton. Donte Moncrief continues to be a touchdown-or-bust option, though the Titans have allowed nine wide receiver touchdowns on the year, making him a solid WR4 play. Rishard Matthews will struggle if Mariota isn’t playing because Cassel isn’t great at throwing a deep ball, which is where Matthews has made his plays over the last few years. He’s just a WR5 with Cassel under center, but a high-end WR4 with Mariota. The Colts secondary is not very good, even with the return of Vontae Davis, so it’s a shame to see this matchup go to waste. Eric Decker has done nothing to show that he deserves a start, even in the best of matchups, as he’s failed to reach even 50 yards in any one game this season. His skill-set does match Cassel a bit more, but it’s hard to say he’s anything more than a WR4/5-type option.

TEs: It seems like Jack Doyle should be cleared in time for this game, but he’s been a ghost outside of one really good game against the Cardinals (one of the best in the league against tight ends). The Titans aren’t a really good team against tight ends, though it may have seemed like it over the last few weeks, playing against Julius Thomas and Ryan Griffin. If you go back a little further, they allowed the combination of Jimmy Graham and Luke Willson to combine for 10/125/1, and then Jared Cook was able to post a solid line of 5/56/0. It’s really hard to trust Doyle with his lack of production, though, making him just a TE2. Delanie Walker has a long touchdown last week… that was called back due to a holding penalty that had no bearing on the result of the play, so his stat line of just 3/25/0 could have ended much differently. He’s still yet to score a receiving touchdown this year, but the Colts are a team who really struggles to defend tight ends. In the two games against them last year, Walker combined for 11 receptions, 120 yards, and a touchdown. The Colts have allowed a tight end touchdown in three consecutive weeks, so get Walker in lineups as a TE1 even if Cassel is starting.

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers

Total: 46.0
Line: CAR by 3.0

Do we have any idea how the Panthers are sitting at 4-1, despite Cam Newton‘s horrific start to the season? Their defense has stumbled over the last few weeks, but Newton has picked up his game, leading them to impressive wins over the Patriots and Lions, and on the road nonetheless. The Eagles have started similarly, though their last few wins haven’t come against great opponents. On a short week, it’s unlikely that the Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson will be cleared from his head injury he suffered in Week 5, which is a brutal blow to this offense that struggled without him on the field last year. They may also be without defensive tackle Fletcher Cox, which didn’t affect them last week against the Cardinals, but if he’s not out there, it’d definitely hinder their ability to track down Newton. This game figures to be close throughout.

QBs: A lot of fantasy pundits liked Carson Wentz coming into the season, but it’s unlikely they thought he’d be sitting as the No. 6 quarterback through five weeks despite a tough schedule that featured the Chiefs, Giants, and Cardinals. The concerning part of his numbers are the attempts, which were at a season-high in Week 2 with 46, but he’s thrown the ball just 30 or 31 times in each of the last three games, taking away potential upside. Despite playing against Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Matthew Stafford the last three weeks, they’ve yet to allow a quarterback more than 20 fantasy points. In fact, they’re allowing just 6.36 yards per attempt on the year. Wentz is unlikely to have his way with this secondary without his right tackle and it’ll be tough to generate a whole lot of pass attempts against the team that allows the fewest opponent plays per game (57.0) in the NFL. On the road, too, Wentz is just a middling QB2. Is Cam Newton back? Well, for those who’ve watched him for a long time, you know that he’s among the streakiest quarterbacks in football. Considering he’s now thrown for 671 yards and six touchdowns over the last two weeks, it’s fair to say he’s in a groove. The Eagles were only able to generate one sack against the weak Cardinals offensive line last week and it likely stems from not having Fletcher Cox. If he misses this game, Newton should have plenty of time to survey a weak secondary, making him a QB1 with an ultra-high floor. The Eagles have allowed four top-12 performances to quarterbacks through five weeks.

RBs: The Eagles were without Wendell Smallwood last week, but fortunately for them, they didn’t need him. It’s unclear as to whether or not they’ll have him this week, but I’m assuming he won’t play on a short week. That leaves LeGarrette Blount to play against a run defense that has yet to allow a running back more than 56 yards this season. They have allowed a rushing touchdown in each of the last three weeks, but two of them were to pass-catching running backs (Dion Lewis, Alvin Kamara). Blount is just an RB3 even with bye weeks in full effect, especially if he’s without Lane Johnson. They mixed in Corey Clement and Kenjon Barner against the Cardinals, capping any hope for value out of them, even with Smallwood out. It’s really too bad, because the Panthers have already allowed five running backs to accumulate 30 or more receiving yards, leaving some PPR value out there for most teams. If I had to pick one, it’d be Clement, but he shouldn’t be trusted. The Panthers are winning games by giving Jonathan Stewart just over 15 carries per game this year, though he’s averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and has yet to score a rushing touchdown. The Eagles front-seven is considered solid, but here’s my view – they’ve played five games this year and three of them have been teams with zero run games (Redskins, Giants, Cardinals) where they allowed just 100 rushing yards on 43 carries and no touchdowns. The two teams with actual run games (Chiefs, Chargers) were able to accumulate 139 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries. They aren’t impenetrable, but if they were to get Fletcher Cox back, it’d be huge. Still, with Stewart not playing well, he is just a touchdown-dependent RB3/flex option and a boring one at that. Christian McCaffrey scored his first touchdown last week on a brilliant play design that had Newton shuffle a two-yard pass to him for an easy score. I stand by the fact that he’s a better real-life football player than fantasy asset. With that being said, both Chris Thompson and Andre Ellington were able to combine for 13 catches, 117 yards, and a touchdown through the air against the Eagles. Considering he’s totaled just 13 carries over the last three weeks, it’s apparent they’re going away from him carrying the ball, leaving him as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 most weeks and this one is no different. Given the lack of true difference makers at running back (outside maybe the top 12), McCaffrey needs to remain in lineups.

WRs: Alshon Jeffery has had a brutal slate of cornerback matchups to start the season, going against Josh Norman, Marcus Peters, Janoris Jenkins, Casey Hayward, and Patrick Peterson, but there is a glass-half-full approach to this. Despite those tough matchups, Jeffery sits as the No. 16 most targeted wide receiver in the league. James Bradberry looked good his rookie year, but hasn’t really impressed in 2017. He doesn’t shadow anyways, so it’ll be interesting to see how the Eagles use Jeffery and it they try to match him up with Daryl Worley a bit more in coverage, who has already allowed two touchdowns this year. With the fear of limited pass attempts for Wentz, Jeffery can’t get into the WR1 range, but you should feel safe plugging him in as a WR2 in this matchup. The Panthers have allowed four top-20 wide receiver performances thus far. Torrey Smith had a dream matchup last week and I told you he was a great tournament play, but he isn’t to be trusted against the Panthers who haven’t been prone to allowing the big plays. Nelson Agholor will get Captain Munnerlyn in the slot, another matchup that you don’t need to target in season-long or DFS. Devin Funchess came up a bit gimpy after a play in Week 5, so you need to pay attention to his practice participation throughout the week. Immediately after he left the game, Kelvin Benjamin caught his touchdown, which was one of the more impressive ones of the week. The Eagles secondary is not one to be afraid of, especially considering they’re still without their top cornerback, Ron Darby. Over the last three weeks (since Greg Olsen wasn’t in the lineup), Benjamin has seen just 12 targets compared to Funchess’ 27 targets. Since the start of Week 2, Funchess sits as the No. 10 wide receiver in fantasy. While I won’t say that this is a changing of the guard or anything, it’s not looking great for Benjamin. The cornerbacks on the Eagles right now who’ll be tasked with covering them are Rasul Douglas and Jalen Mills, two slower cornerbacks who struggle with speed. Obviously, that’s not something Benjamin or Funchess possess, but that shouldn’t stop you from starting them both as WR3’s in this matchup. Curtis Samuel played just 15 snaps last week, so although his speed could be an issue for this secondary, he cannot be trusted just yet.

TEs: I said last week that Zach Ertz may actually be the No. 1 tight end for the rest of the season with how dependable he’s become and it continued against a very tough Cardinals defense who always keep tight ends in check. Ertz now has 48 targets, which would rank No. 6 among wide receivers. He’s a staple in fantasy lineups every week and despite the tough matchup in Week 6, he needs to be in your lineup once again. The Panthers have held Charles Clay to 3/23/0, Coby Fleener 1/21/0, and Rob Gronkowski to 4/80/0. Granted, they did allow two touchdowns to backup tight end Darren Fells last week, but that may have been a lack of priority against the Lions. Ertz needs to remain in lineups, but dial back expectations once again in a tough matchup. What in the world happened with Ed Dickson last week? After seeing just nine targets in the first four weeks, he busts out for 175 yards on just five targets against the Lions? It’s not something to expect going forward, especially against the Eagles, a team who has shut down tight ends since Doug Pederson took over. Dickson is just a desperation TE2.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.