Each and every week, there’s someone who reaches out and says thank you for giving them the heads up to bench a particular player and they want to know how I knew that particular player would bust. Well, let’s be honest, if I really “knew” which players would hit and which would bust, I probably wouldn’t be here writing this article. I’d be living off my millions in Hawaii instead of sitting in my office in Illinois writing up articles for the week.
With that being said, I spend a lot more time in a week than the average fan does during an entire season watching games, analyzing matchups, and trying to make sense of it all. One of the most important things to know is which cornerback will matchup with your wide receiver. While there aren’t too many corners who shadow a wide receiver around the field, we have a really good idea as to how much of any wide receiver they should see in coverage. Which ones are bad and which ones are good? Well, that’s what we’re here for. You don’t need me to tell you to start Julio Jones against the Dolphins, but maybe you’re trying to figure out whether or not you want to use him for DFS. Keep in mind that just because someone is in the avoid column, it doesn’t automatically mean he should go to your bench. In fact, I try to keep this article to the big-name players, because who cares if Jermaine Kearse matches up with Jalen Ramsey. Let’s talk about which wide receivers have the best matchups of the week and which ones have it the toughest.
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Matchups to Exploit
Julio Jones vs. Xavien Howard
The Dolphins are going to have no choice but to trust Howard to defend Jones roughly 50 percent of the time, which is not an ideal scenario for them. Howard runs nearly a 4.6-second 40-yard-dash, while Jones can run a 4.3 all day. Howard has played against two actual pass attacks through four games, and in those games against the Chargers and Saints, he allowed 14 of 17 targets to be caught for 130 yards, though he hasn’t allowed a touchdown in coverage yet. Jones should see increased volume with Mohamed Sanu out of the lineup and the matchup couldn’t get much better.
T.Y. Hilton vs. LeShaun Sims/Adoree Jackson
There have been two games this year in which Hilton was a recommended play in this section and this marks the third time. There hasn’t been a more generous secondary than the Titans, as they have allowed 750 yards and nine touchdowns through five games. The lack of speed for Sims (4.53) and the lack of experience for Jackson should produce more video game numbers for Hilton, who’s had no issues getting open against sub-par competition. He also happens to be the only wide receiver on the Colts capable of doing so.
Larry Fitzgerald vs. Robert McClain
There’s been some great matchups on Fitzgerald’s schedule throughout the first five weeks, and he gets another one in Week 6 against the Bucs, and specifically, McLain. He was on the Panthers roster last season and wound up getting benched by Week 16 after he had allowed 25/286/2 on just 29 targets in coverage. On the season, he’s already allowed 16/173/1 on just 19 targets in an extended role. Brent Grimes will match-up with John Brown a majority of the time, leaving Fitzgerald as the favorite to lead the team in targets.
Golden Tate vs. Sterling Moore/Kenny Vaccaro
It’s not often you find a matchup where you feel it’s just tailormade for a specific player, but this game suits Tate perfectly. The Saints have been using Vaccaro to cover the slot while Moore has been recovering from a pectoral injury that he suffered back in Week 2. Let’s just say that Vaccaro hasn’t been great in coverage, allowing a 115.7 passer rating when targeted on the season. It seems like Moore is coming back this week, but it’s still a multiple week absence and he’ll go against one of the premier slot receivers in the game. Tate belongs in fantasy lineups as a strong WR2 this week.
Terrelle Pryor vs. Rashard Robinson
This is the part where I tell you that I’m not even a Pryor fan or anything, but the matchup is too good not to like. Robinson has been burned by speed throughout 2017 so far, allowing T.Y. Hilton to go off for 7/177/0 last week, and Sammy Watkins to go off for 6/106/2 two weeks before that. If there’s one thing that Pryor doesn’t lack, it’s speed to get downfield. With all of the injury questions surrounding the Redskins pass catchers and lack of run game, they need to count on Pryor even if he’s disappointed. Even when he goes to the other side of the field to match-up with Dontae Johnson, he’s allowed almost 18 yards per reception.
Matchups to Worry About
Jordy Nelson vs. Xavier Rhodes
Let’s make one thing clear – you aren’t ever going to sit Nelson when he is active and on the field. However, this is a week where you want to limit your expectations, as Rhodes has been arguably the best cornerback in football. On the season, he’s covered Michael Thomas (5/45/0), Antonio Brown (5/62/0), Mike Evans (7/67/0), and Marvin Jones (2/42/0). That’s what you call a shutdown cornerback. He doesn’t travel into the slot, which is where Nelson runs roughly 27 percent of his routes. There’s been just one top-20 wide receiver against them all year, and that was Martavis Bryant who caught just three passes, though one was for a long touchdown.
Mike Evans vs. Patrick Peterson
Stop me if you’ve heard this before – but Evans has a tough matchup this week. Over his last three weeks, he’s matched up with Xavier Rhodes, Janoris Jenkins, and Stephon Gilmore. Now he gets to go against Peterson, who’s been phenomenal in coverage all year. Despite those tough matchups, Evans sits as the WR10 in points per game. Over the last four weeks, Peterson and the Cardinals secondary have held T.Y. Hilton, Dez Bryant, Pierre Garcon, and Alshon Jeffery to a combination of just 13/128/1. That’s a span of four games worth by No. 1 wide receivers. The glimmer of hope is that Evans did play against Peterson last year and totaled 6/70/1, though it took 18 targets to get there.
Demaryius Thomas vs. Janoris Jenkins
It’s gotten to the point where you have to ask yourself as a defensive coordinator, “Is Thomas worth shadowing with my top cornerback?” Thomas has been a mediocre wide receiver over the last year and a half, and has now gone 10 straight games without a touchdown despite seeing 89 targets. Jenkins has shadowed and shut down opposing No. 1 wide receivers all season, but the hope if you’re a Thomas owner is that he isn’t worth shadowing anymore. It’s very possible that they just have Jenkins play sides to see a mixture of both Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, so he’s not a flat-out bench player, but it’s worth noting who he should see in coverage.
Sammy Watkins vs. Jalen Ramsey
Raise your hand if you don’t know what to do with Watkins anymore. Yep, I have my hand raised right alongside of you. Fortunately, we can take a break from the struggle this week and bench him without hesitating. Ramsey is one of the best up-and-coming cornerbacks in the game and will be glued to Watkins throughout much of the game this Sunday. Even if they choose not to shadow Watkins, he’ll see A.J. Bouye on the other side of the field, which is arguably just as bad of a matchup. They have combined to allow just 24 catches this year… on 63 targets.
John Brown vs. Brent Grimes
It’s good to see Brown get back onto the field and playing a majority of the snaps (passed Jaron Brown last week), but this isn’t a week to drop him into lineups if you can help it. Grimes has been playing great football for the Bucs and sticks to the perimeter, which is where Brown plays a majority of the time. In fact, just four of his targets all season have come while playing out of the slot, so you don’t want to rely on production out of there. Grimes has covered a lot of No. 1 wide receivers over the last year and a half and has allowed just under 12 yards per reception and just a 56 percent catch rate. Hearing that Brown has been limited in practice should be enough to scare you off him in this matchup.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
