Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week. The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another. Have you ever wondered what stats you should review to understand how productive certain players can truly be?
What impact would that have on your fantasy football team? In essence that is the goal of this column. This article will provide you a line of sight regarding noteworthy stats and trends you should be aware of to dominate your league.
Past performance is not indicative of future production in fantasy football, but it can provide you a line of sight of what stats to pay attention to. This week I will highlight six intriguing statistics from Week 9 you should know about.
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TY HILTON LEAD ALL WIDE RECEIVERS IN YARDS AFTER THE CATCH
PERFECT pass by @JBrissett12.
And @TYHilton13 makes the grab!Touchdown, @Colts! #Colts pic.twitter.com/vijqVMrrft
— NFL (@NFL) November 5, 2017
Hilton caught five of nine targets for 175 receiving yards and two touchdowns against the Texans. He had an average depth of target or aDOT of 15.8 yards and 142 air yards with 46.8 percent of his receiving yardage coming after the catch. Hilton is back on the WR1 radar, but faces a stout Steelers pass defense this week. The only other defense allowing fewer fantasy points per game to WRs than the Steelers are the Jaguars.
ADRIAN PETERSON’S 37 CARRIES AGAINST THE 49ERS BROKE AN NFL RECORD
Adrian Peterson played 77% of the Cardinals offensive snaps against the 49ers and touched the football or was targeted on 70% of them. #FantasyFootball @RotoViz pic.twitter.com/Z7GOGG8VPZ
— Moody (@EricNMoody) November 8, 2017
Peterson rushed 37 times for 159 yards and caught two of four targets for eight yards. He broke a record for the most carries by a running back over the age of 30. The previous record holder was set by a 32-year old Jerome Bettis in 2004. Peterson continues to defy Father Time and can be viewed as a mid-range RB1 moving forward despite the Cardinals having quarterback Drew Stanton under center.
JARED GOFF LED THE POSITION AT QUARTERBACK RATING
Jared Goff by the numbers today pic.twitter.com/nbJABvTu5Q
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) November 5, 2017
Goff completed 14 of 22 passes for 311 yards and four touchdowns in the Rams domination of the Giants. He finished the game with a QBR of 147 and averaged 14 yards per pass attempt. Goff is currently the QB12 and those who invested in him are reaping the benefits. This is another great example of how a full NFL offseason and a coaching change can course correct the most abysmal of rookie seasons. Goff faces a Texans defense that can be violated through the air. The only other defenses allowing more fantasy points per game to QBs are the 49ers, Giants, and Patriots.
JARED COOK LED ALL TIGHT ENDS IN RECEIVING YARDS AND HAD THE FIFTH MOST AIR YARDS
Jared Cook has surpassed 100 receiving yards for second time in three games. Needed one half to do it: 6 catches, 111 yards.
— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) November 6, 2017
Cook caught eight of nine targets for 126 yards against the Dolphins. He accumulated 78 air yards and 58 yards after the catch with a 30 percent target share. Cook had the second highest Weighted Opportunity Rating or WOPR amongst all tight ends last week. WOPR is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards. Cook can be viewed as a TE1, is a critical component of the Raiders offense, and has an enticing matchup against the Patriots coming out of the bye week. The Patriots defense is allowing the second-most receiving yards in the NFL.
JULIO JONES LEAD ALL WIDE RECEIVERS WITH 273 AIR YARDS
Julio Jones just had a wide open 40+ yard TD catch – no defender within 10 yards – and he dropped it.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 5, 2017
Jones did botch an opportunity for a 39-yard touchdown reception which would have given the Falcons the win. This would have also helped a number of fantasy players if it came to fruition, but Jones did have his second 100-receiving yard game of the season against the Panthers. He caught six of 12 targets for 118 yards. This was only Jones third double-digit target game of the season. He remains a WR1 and faces a Cowboys defense allowing the eighth most fantasy points per game to WRs. Jones has accumulated the sixth highest number of air yards through nine games this season. A window to trade for his services is still open. Jones has averaged 10.7 targets, seven receptions, and 105.4 receiving yards per game over his last 54. He will go boom sooner rather than later.
ALVIN KAMARA AVERAGED 9.5 YARDS PER TOUCH AGAINST THE BUCCANEERS
Kamara had 10 rushing attempts for 68 yards and a touchdown. He also caught six of seven targets for 84 yards and a touchdown. Kamara has averaged 6.5 rushing attempts and 4.8 receptions per game this season. He has averaged 103.6 total yards from scrimmage per game over the last five. Kamara’s usage continues to trend up and as a result, can be viewed as an RB1 with favorable upcoming matchups against the Bills, Redskins, and Rams.
WHAT COMES NEXT?
The purpose of this column is to make you a more informed fantasy player and put you in the best possible position to harness this intellectual capital into a league-winning team. What statistics stood out to you? Please leave a comment below or reach out to me on Twitter.
You can find me @EricNMoody, and I am always open to answering questions or discussing football. Please be on the lookout for this column every Wednesday during the regular season. Until next time!
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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.
