Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week. The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another. Have you ever wondered what stats you should review to understand how productive certain players can truly be?
What impact would that have on your fantasy football team? In essence that is the goal of this column. This article will provide you a line of sight regarding noteworthy stats and trends you should be aware of to dominate your league.
Past performance is not indicative of future production in fantasy football, but it can provide you a line of sight of what stats to pay attention to. This week I will highlight 8 intriguing statistics from Week 11 you should know about.
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RUSSELL WILSON GENERATED 0.94 FANTASY POINTS PER TOUCH
Russell Wilson was still impressive in a loss pic.twitter.com/VoRhneNxKi
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) November 21, 2017
Did you know that Wilson led the Seahawks in rushing yards with 86? He completed 26 of 42 pass attempts for 258 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception in a loss against the Falcons on Monday Night Football. Wilson is currently the number one fantasy quarterback. He has averaged 40 pass attempts and 311.2 passing yards per game over the last four. Wilson currently has a positive passing and rushing fantasy points over expectation which suggests he is making the most of his opportunities.
BEN ROETHLISBERGER HAD A PASSER RATING OF 120.6 WHEN BLITZED
Tonight is the best Ben Roethlisberger has looked in awhile
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) November 17, 2017
This statistic was from Pro Football Focus. Roethlisberger came alive for fantasy players on Thursday Night Football as he annihilated the Titans completing 30 of 45 passes for 299 yards and four touchdowns. Did you know that Roethlisberger has six touchdowns over his last two starts after producing only 10 the first eight games of the season? He also became the ninth player in NFL history with 4,000 or more career completions. Roethlisberger joins Eli Manning and Philip Rivers as the first trio from the same draft class (2004) to accomplish this feat according to NFL Research.
MARK INGRAM HAD A 14.3 RUSHING FANTASY POINTS OVER EXPECTATION
Your weekly "Mark Ingram dominated this week" update pic.twitter.com/jzYA0CloeR
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) November 19, 2017
This was Ingram’s fourth 100 or more rushing yards game in six games since the departure of Adrian Peterson. He produced 134 rushing yards on 11 attempts and scored a touchdown against the Redskins. Ingram has a positive rushing fantasy points over expectation for the entire season which speaks to his efficiency.
SAMAJE PERINE HANDLED 70 PERCENT OF THE REDSKINS CARRIES
#Redskins RB Samaje Perine nominated for @pepsi Rookie of the Week after rushing 23 times for 117 yards and 1 TD in #WASvsNO.
Vote #NFLROTW: https://t.co/J2XljgzwPJ pic.twitter.com/HVlBMJ3ndT
— Washington Redskins (@Redskins) November 21, 2017
Perine had 23 rushing attempts for 117 yards and a touchdown against the Saints. The unfortunate injuries to Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson provide him with an opportunity to lead the Redskins backfield. The rookie was their first RB to gain 100 or more rushing yards since Week 11 of last season. Perine should dominate the early down, short yardage, and goal-line carries. It remains to be seen if the Redskins will attempt to use him more as a receiver out of the backfield. The team is productive enough to provide Perine opportunities to score touchdowns. They ranked eighth in total yards (3,594), yards per play (5.7), and score points on 37.7 percent of their offensive drives. Perine can be viewed as a solid RB2.
ANTONIO BROWN LED ALL WIDE RECEIVERS IN AIR YARDS WITH 187
Antonio Brown: 7 receptions, 105 receiving yards, 2 receiving TD so far on #TNF
This is Brown's 13th game in the last 5 seasons with 2+ rec TD (most in NFL)
This is Brown's 9th game in the last 5 seasons with 100+ rec yards & 2+ rec TD (most in NFL)
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) November 17, 2017
Brown caught 10 of 13 targets for 144 receiving yards and three touchdowns against the Titans. Air Yards allow us to understand how many yards are behind the targets a player receives. It allows us to better understand the volume a wide receiver receives which is the lifeblood of fantasy points. Brown led all wide receivers in fantasy points with 42.4 in PPR formats. He has averaged a ridiculous 11.3 targets, 7.7 receptions, and 103.3 receiving yards per game over his last 41 games.
COREY COLEMAN HAD A WEIGHTED OPPORTUNITY RATING OF 87 PERCENT
Only one receiver, Antonio Brown, had topped 70 yards against the Jaguars this season before today. Corey Coleman went for 80.
— Raymond Summerlin (@RMSummerlin) November 20, 2017
Weighted Opportunity Rating or WOPR is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards. Coleman caught six of 11 targets for 80 yards against the Jaguars. He had the 11th most Air Yards among wide receivers with 134 and had a target share of 34 percent in his first game back. Coleman played 93% percent of the offensive snaps in his first game back, but his fantasy value is constrained by the skill set of Browns quarterback DeShone Kizer. It remains to be seen if Josh Gordon will be fantasy relevant during the 2017 season. Hope is not a viable fantasy football winning strategy.
TRAVIS KELCE LED ALL TIGHT ENDS WITH 191 AIR YARDS
The trend of the Giants giving up a high number of fantasy points to opposing tight ends continued with Kelce. He caught eight of 14 targets for 109 receiving yards. Kelce led all tight ends in targets, yards after the catch with 42, and WOPR with 0.80. He has averaged 8.2 targets, 5.9 receptions, and 73.8 receiving yards per game this season. Kelce also has a positive receiving fantasy points over expectation.
VERNON DAVIS HAD AN AVERAGE DEPTH OF TARGET OF 17.2
Cousins has a great connection with Vernon Davis. Davis runs a fade from the slot on this play, Cousins drops it in the basket with another perfect throw pic.twitter.com/qVq6Ki2RwS
— Mark Bullock (@MarkBullockNFL) November 21, 2017
Davis led all tight ends with three or more targets in aDOT. He caught three of six targets against the against the Saints for 67 receiving yards. Davis had the third most Air Yards among tight ends with 103 and has been productive over the last three games Jordan Reed has been out. He has averaged 8.7 targets, 5.3 receptions, and 71.7 receiving yards per game over that time frame. Davis has, unfortunately, had a negative receiving fantasy points over expectation during that time frame. He will have a plus matchup tomorrow night against the Giants where he can be viewed as a TE1.
WHAT COMES NEXT?
The purpose of this column is to make you a more informed fantasy player and put you in the best possible position to harness this intellectual capital into a league-winning team. What statistics stood out to you? Please leave a comment below or reach out to me on Twitter.
You can find me @EricNMoody, and I am always open to answering questions or discussing football. Please be on the lookout for this column every Wednesday during the regular season. Until next time!
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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.
