Last week’s suggested game stick failed to deliver the goods. This week, I go back to the well with another high-upside game stack that features much bigger-ticket players. A duo from each side of that game offers massive scoring potential, especially if game flow goes according to the betting spread.
In order to budget for the pricey quartet, you’ll need to find some value to surround them with. Don’t worry, I’ve got you covered with a low-price RB/DST stack in a great spot.
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Jacoby Brissett (IND): $5,200 vs. Steelers
T.Y. Hilton (IND): $5,900 vs. Steelers
Le’Veon Bell (PIT): $9,800 @ Colts
Antonio Brown (PIT): $9,500 @ Colts
I’ve always been the type who likes to receive the bad news before the good, so let me point out the blemishes for this quartet. The Steelers have allowed the third fewest DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks and the second-fewest DraftKings points per game to wide receivers this year, according to Pro-Football-Reference. Furthermore, Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Steelers fifth in defending the pass this season.
The matchup isn’t great for the Brissett/Hilton pairing, and the Colts’ implied team over/under total of just 16.5 points, per Pinnacle, isn’t inviting, either. Having said that, a 10.5-point spread favoring the visiting Steelers is ideal for forcing the Colts to pass early and often. If the game turns into a blowout, it’s likely the Steelers duo touted have a hand in getting it to that point, and garbage-time points would count all the same for Brissett and Hilton.
At just $5,200, Brissett doesn’t have to do much to hit value, but in GPPs, we’re looking for more than merely hitting value. Even in a tough matchup, the second-year signal caller has upside to smash it thanks in large part to his legs. The Steelers have avoided being beaten up on the ground by quarterbacks to date, but Brissett has the mobility to change that.
He ranks ninth among quarterbacks in rushing yards (147) and tied for third in rushing touchdowns (three). He can do damage with his arm, too, and he’s bested 300 yards passing twice this year and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in back-to-back games. Last week’s game in Houston was his best as a passer totaling 308 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
As a reminder to those rostering Hilton, his points from last week’s blowup showing don’t carry over. Joking aside, he’ll get an ownership bump from point chasers, but there are valid reasons for using him.
The first is his enormous weekly ceiling. Sure, it’s accompanied by a low floor, but his volatility is to be embraced in GPPs. Hilton has surpassed 150 yards receiving three times in nine games this year — albeit in favorable matchups. Hilton’s ability to stretch the field is a good pairing with Brissett’s ability to extend plays with his mobility, and Hilton’s averaged 20.6 yards per reception this year chiefly working with the second-year quarterback. Tight end Jack Doyle is the other stack partner to consider with Brissett, but I’d much rather use Hilton based on the wide out’s ceiling alone, but a look under the hood reveals the matchup is better for Hilton, too.
FO ranks the Steelers second defending tight ends, yet they rank 13th defending No. 1 receivers. A slightly above-average ranking defending No. 1 receivers is far less imposing than the other pass defense ranks I’ve discussed, and they help embolden me to roll the dice with the sixth-year receiver.
If you’re looking for further reasons to trust him, Hilton’s career home/road splits should help. In his career, Hilton’s averaged 15.88 yards per reception, 4.3 receptions per game, and 68.3 receiving yards per game, but at home, those numbers rise to 16.26 yards per reception, 5.1 receptions per game, and 82.4 receiving yards per game.
I probably don’t have to twist your arm nearly as much to use Bell and Brown. The Steelers have an implied team over/under total of 27, and Bell and Brown are the clear-cut focal points of the offense.
The matchup is tasty for both. FO ranks the Colts 27th in defense (25th defending the pass and 21st defending the run), and they rank Indianapolis dead last defending running backs in the passing game. The Colts are tied for the fifth most DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs and have yielded the seventh most DraftKings points per game to receivers.
Bell leads the NFL in rushes (194), ranks third in rushing yards (760) and rushing yards per game (95.0), and is tied for fourth in rushing touchdowns (five). Oh, and he’s a pretty good receiver, catching 35 of 45 targets for 219 yards receiving — 4.4 receptions and 27.4 receiving yards per game.
As for Brown, he leads the way in targets (94), receptions (57), receiving yards (835), receptions per game (7.1), and receiving yards per game (104.4), and he’s also scored three touchdowns. When Brown faced the Colts last November, he torched them for a 5-91-3 line on only six targets.
Matt Forte (RB – NYJ): $4,400 @ Buccaneers
Jets (D/ST – NYJ): $2,800 @ Buccaneers
I promised some bargains to offset the gaudy salaries commanded by the four touted players above, and here they are. The Jets have talented options sharing the backfield with Forte, and that’s always a threat to his scoring output, but the former Bear has established his role atop the committee. The 31-year-old back has topped 80 yards from scrimmage in four of seven games this year, and he’s been an integral part of the passing attack averaging 4.1 receptions and 31.7 yards receiving per game.
Forte has been incredibly efficient as a receiver, and his 90.6% catch percentage is second only to Joe Mixon among qualified players, per Pro-Football-Reference. He’s also showing he has a little something left in the tank as a runner bumping his yards per carry up to 4.2 this season — his highest mark since 2013 — and averaging 34.4 rushing yards per game. The matchup checks in as a plus for Forte.
FO ranks the Bucs 22nd defending the run and 29th defending backs as receivers. Tampa Bay has ceded the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to running backs this year.
The defense isn’t necessarily as strong of a correlation pairing as it would be with a two-down bruiser or true workhorse back, but it plays well with Forte nonetheless. More importantly, they’re underpriced as an average unit in a great spot to score fantasy points.
The Jets’ defense is tied for third in turnovers forced (16), tied for 18th in sacks (18), and 18th in scoring defense (23.0 points allowed per game). The Bucs are tied for the 10th most turnovers (13) and rank 21st in scoring offense (19.8 points per game).
Tampa Bay’s offense has already been playing at a below-average level this year, and they’ll be without starting quarterback Jameis Winston and top offensive talent, wide receiver Mike Evans this week. Ryan Fitzpatrick will fill in at quarterback, and he’s thrown two interceptions and taken four sacks in three games he’s appeared in and attempted 48 passes in this year. Last year when he played for the Jets, he threw 17 interceptions in 14 games (11 starts).
He’s incredibly turnover prone, and Evans’ absence could exacerbate those problems as he looks to move the ball with lesser weapons to work with. The Jets are 2.5-point road favorites, and Tampa Bay’s implied team over/under total of just 19 points is good for the Jets D/ST, too.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
