A trio of pricey, dual-threat backs will be the foundation of many of my GPP rosters this weekend, and all three are featured below. They’re joined by a three-man game stack that includes a QB/WR stack and a minimum salary opposing wideout.
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Marcus Mariota (QB – TEN): $6,300 @ Colts
Corey Davis (WR – TEN): $4,900 @ Colts
Donte Moncrief (WR – IND): $3,000 vs. Titans
The Titans and Colts combined for 59 points in Week 6, but the game’s over/under total for this week is only 45.5 points, per Pinnacle. The earlier matchup illustrates the fantasy scoring upside, yet the low total might keep some gamers off of the scent.
In his career, Mariota has surpassed 300 yards passing just five times. Two of those times have come against the Colts, and one was his 306-yard performance against them in Week 6. He’s also coming off of a 306-yard performance in a blowout loss to the Steelers last week.
Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Colts 27th defending the pass, and Indianapolis has yielded the fifth most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks this season, per Pro-Football-Reference. The matchup is excellent for Mariota, and stack partner Davis gives him a weapon he didn’t have the first time the two clubs met.
The rookie receiver has played in only five games this year, but he’s proven to be a favorite option of Mariota. Davis has twice hit the 10-target mark in a game, and he led the club in targets both of those contests. He’s yet to parlay his steady diet of looks into a big game and has single-game highs of just six receptions and 69 yards in the season opener, but this is a great week for him to demonstrate why the Titans picked him with the fifth pick in this year’s NFL Draft. The Colts have coughed up the seventh most DraftKings points per game to receivers, and FO ranks them 15th defending No. 1 receivers and 21st defending No. 2 receivers.
There’s also home-run potential for Davis, and the Titans pass catchers. The Colts have allowed far and away the most 20-plus yard receiving plays (47, and the second highest total is only 40), and they’re tied for second with 10 plays of 40-plus yards allowed on passes. Davis is one of my favorite value plays on the board this week at under $5,000, and he’s a great stack partner with Mariota.
Moncrief is having a miserable year without starting quarterback Andrew Luck, but he’s coming off of reeling in a 60-yard touchdown on his only target last week against the Steelers, and his best game of the year (5-67-0) was in Week 6 against the Titans. Moncrief’s middling target totals are disconcerting and create a low floor, but his past success against this opponent this season, shootout potential with the Colts possibly stuck throwing it frequently as three-point underdogs, and favorable matchup make him a viable dice roll.
FO ranks the Titans 26th defending the pass and 30th defending No. 2 receivers (a distinction Moncrief can easily lay claim to behind No. 1 T.Y. Hilton). Tennessee has also allowed the fifth most DraftKings points to wideouts this year.
Todd Gurley (RB – LAR): $8,800 vs. Saints
I’m totally in love with Gurley this week, but I’m not alone. He’ll probably be one of the chalkiest (if not the chalkiest) running backs in Week 12, but for good reason. He leads the way in yards from scrimmage (1,216) and combined rushing and receiving touchdowns (11), and he’s averaging 22.2 touches per game — a number that could go up with No. 1 Robert Woods hurt.
Gurley’s taken his receiving to a previously unseen territory. He’s averaging 3.8 receptions and 42.5 yards receiving per game, and he should continue his excellence as a receiver this week against a Saints defense that’s allowed the eighth-most receiving yards (494) and is tied for the seventh most receptions (60) allowed to running backs, per Pro-Football-Reference. FO ranks the Saints 26th defending the run and 14th defending running backs in the passing game.
The Rams are 2.5-point favorites at home in a game with the week’s highest over/under total of 53 points. The sky’s the limit for the third-year back.
Kareem Hunt (RB – KC): $8,000 vs. Bills
Second to Gurley in yards from scrimmage is Hunt with 1,208. He opened the season like a man on fire but has failed to reach pay dirt in seven straight games. Everything aligns perfectly for him to return to early-season form this week.
The Bills have been run all over of late allowing 638 yards rushing in their last three games. As a result, they’ve fallen to 31st in FO’s run defense rankings, and they’ve moved to the second most giving defense to running backs in terms of per-game DraftKings scoring. The Bills have allowed an NFL-high 13 rushing touchdowns and 14 touchdowns overall to running backs this year, so the odds are in Hunt’s favor for snapping his touchdown-less streak.
Speaking of odds, the game script should be perfect for the rookie runner, too. The Chiefs are 10-point favorites at home. Like Gurley, Hunt should be extremely chalky, but I’d strongly advise against being contrarian by fading him.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO): $7,900 @ Rams
To use Gurley, Hunt, and Kamara together, you’ll need to make salary sacrifices elsewhere, but I’m completely fine with that. There are plenty of value options at receiver such as the two highlighted in this piece, but there are others beyond them as well. More importantly, perhaps, the combined upside of the trio of backs supports the salary concessions made elsewhere.
Getting back to Kamara specifically, he’s tied to the same appealing game over/under total Gurley is, and the rookie runner has been special in his first season as a pro. He’s averaging an NFL-high 6.4 yards per carry, and he’s doing it all averaging 45.9 yards rushing per game, 4.9 receptions, and 44.7 receiving yards per game as well. The do-it-all back has reached triple-digit yards from scrimmage in three straight games, scored at least one touchdown in four straight and six of 10 games this year, and he’s reeled in at least three receptions in every game this season.
Kamara’s usage has been great as well with double-digit touches in seven straight games. The Rams not only make for an unimposing matchup for running backs, but they also make for a very favorable one. FO ranks them 20th defending the run, and they’ve allowed the sixth most DraftKings points per game to the position.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
