Tonight we have a beautiful 12-game slate with a ton of options to choose from. So far this year, there have been two strategies which have worked out best for cashing. Stack the top line from Tampa Bay, and target any team playing Arizona. Both teams play tonight, but we will need to hunt for value if we are going to lock in the Lightning studs.
Center
Steven Stamkos (TB): $7,900 vs. NYR
At this point, I do not need to advise you to play Stamkos. I also do not need to tell you to pair him with Nikita Kucherov and/or Vladislav Namestnikov. I should mention, however, how great of a play these three are tonight. The Rangers are allowing on average 3.54 goals per game against, almost 32 shots a game against, and have a very below average penalty kill percentage of 79.2%. If you watched this Ranger team play the Vegas Knights just two nights ago, you would realize how sloppy, careless, and slow they really look. This is an obvious play, but one I am not looking to fade.
William Karlsson (VGK): $4,000 @ BOS
As mentioned in the intro, we need to value hunt tonight. This is a player who will likely go less than three percent owned in any tournament and is a very big “gut call” play. Hear me out. Everyone will look to stack the Bruins without realizing the Golden Knights are ranked third in the NHL for goals per game. The Bruins are also riddled with injuries including some of their top defensive forwards in Krejci, Spooner, and Backes. With the top line of Bergeron, Marchand, and Pastrnak matched on the Eakin line, look for Karlsson to face a very inexperienced second Boston unit along with power play time. This is a long shot play which will provide salary relief, low ownership and high upside.
Other Centers to consider:
Cash – Jack Eichel ($7,300 @ ARI), Anze Kopitar ($6,400 vs. TOR)
GPP – Alexander Wennberg ($5,100 @ FLA), Derek Stepan ($5,000 vs. BUF)
Winger
Evander Kane (BUF): $7,000 @ ARI
After starting the campaign on fire, Kane has been a solid contributor to the Sabres offensive success. Kane is averaging a point per game with six goals, and six assists in his 12 games played. His best games came against Montreal, the New York Islanders, New Jersey, and Vegas. What these teams all have in common are their absolute lack of defense. This is a great spot for Evander Kane who is developing great chemistry with 2015 second-overall pick Jack Eichel.
Dustin Brown (LA): $5,400 vs. TOR
The Leafs are on the back end of a back to back going into Los Angeles to face a very good Kings team. This will be their third game in just four days. While they are a young, energetic team, LA should control this game from the beginning. Toronto gets a lot of media attention with great highlights from skilled players. What goes overlooked is their defensive woes. Currently allowing 3.38 goals against and 33.1 shots against per game, look for the Kings top line to strike early and often. With back up Curtis McElhinney expected to start, Dustin Brown and Anze Kopitar are a great stack against a leaky defensive team.
Clayton Keller (ARI): $6,000 vs. BUF
It seems like the few goals this Coyotes team does put together all come from Clayton Keller. Nine goals and six assists in just 13 games played leaves him just one assist behind Auston Mathews in overall points. One of the best places to look for fantasy production, in any sport, are games where two terrible teams go toe to toe. They are almost always ugly games with a lot of mistakes, but lead to scoring and ultimately fantasy production. Tonight, the Sabres are going into Arizona to face the Coyotes. Both sides do not really know how to play defense and both teams have sub par goaltending. With Arizona being the worst team in the NHL and 11 other teams to choose from, look for Keller to once again go overlooked.
Other Wingers to consider:
Cash – Nikita Kucherov ($8,300 vs. NYR), Alex Ovechkin ($7,700 vs. NYI)
GPP – Matt Calvert ($3,700 @ FLA), Reilly Smith ($4,200 @ BOS)
Defense
Drew Doughty (LA): $5,500 vs. TOR
Like NBA DFS, choosing a defenseman can be as simple as looking at the TOI/G box score stat. If you know a defenseman has a high average of “time on ice,” then his fantasy production should naturally correlate in a positive direction. Unless you are paying way up for a Brent Burns or Eric Karlsson, it is pretty hard to predict a defenseman who is going to score. Instead, we are looking for a high floor of fantasy production with shots on goal and blocked shots. Players who play more time will see more of these less variance stats. Doughty is one of the best defenseman in the NHL and warrants a heavy workload. Tonight he will see a high-paced game with a lot of shot attempts from a young Leafs team. Look for Doughty to be heavily involved in this game at a fair price point.
Zachary Werenski (CLS): $4,900 @ FLA
In case you haven’t noticed, I am quite high on this Columbus Blue Jackets tonight. What is less obvious is that the Florida Panthers are ranked 30th in goals allowed, 31st in shots against and 31st in penalty kill percentage. Now, the Blue Jackets are struggling on the power play themselves, but I see this as a “get right spot” tonight against a team who is lost defensively.
Other Defense to consider:
Cash – Victor Hedman ($6,100 vs NYR)
GPP – Rasmus Ristolainen ($4,800 @ ARI)
Goalie
Jonathan Quick (LA): $8,000 vs. TOR
I do not usually take a goalie going up against the Toronto Maple Leafs, but Quick is having a Vezina candidate start to the season. Bosting a 1.89 GAA and .942 save percentage to start the season. Take into consideration that the Kings are finally back home after a five-game road trip, and Quick is my top play of the night.
***Tuuka Rask will be very highly owned because of the Vegas line. This is more because of who the Golden Knights are starting in net and less of how good Rask is. Tuuka has a save percentage of just .896 and if the Golden Knights can put together a lot of shots, it could get ugly quick. He’s a fade for me tonight.
Jeremy Maw is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Jeremy, check out his archive or follow him @j_maw.
