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FanDuel NFL Lineup Advice: Week 12 (Thanksgiving Day)

FanDuel NFL Lineup Advice: Week 12 (Thanksgiving Day)

Instead of a Thur/Sun/Mon lineup piece, this week’s piece looks exclusively at the 3-game Thanksgiving slate. A three-man stack from the high-powered Redskins offense is the backbone of the team, and they’re complemented by a high-end running back and wideout and others.

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Quarterback

Kirk Cousins (WAS): $8,800 vs. Giants
The Giants pulled off a shocking upset at home against the Chiefs last week, but on a short week, I like Washington’s offense to get the better of them in Washington. I’m not alone, as Pinnacle has the Redskins favored by 7.5 points with a game total of 44.5 points, leaving them with an implied over/under total of a healthy 26 points (highest of the six teams playing on Thanksgiving). Cousins lost his top weapon in the passing game when Chris Thompson suffered a fractured fibula against the Saints, but that didn’t slow him down in a 322-yard, 3-touchdown effort. This year, Cousins ranks seventh in pass attempts (345), sixth in completion percentage (66.7%), tied for seventh in touchdown passes (17), fifth in yards per pass attempt (8.1), tied for fifth in adjusted yards per pass attempt (8.4), fourth in passing yards per game (279.6), and seventh in Quarterback Rating, according to Pro-Football-Reference. He’s blended elite volume with efficiency, and he has a plus draw against the Giants. Big Blue ranks 29th in pass defense, per Football Outsiders (FO), and have allowed the third most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks this year. He’s the top play at quarterback on the 3-game slate.

Running Back

Melvin Gordon (LAC): $8,400 @ Cowboys
Cousins is joined on this roster by the top play at running back. While Cousins should be the chalk play at the position, a steep discount to spin down to Matthew Stafford or Philip Rivers could tighten things up there. Gordon, however, is likely to be the highest owned player on the slate by a wide margin. He’s far and away the best running back and the only true every-down back available. Gordon’s averaging 20.2 touches per game (16.7 carries and 3.5 receptions) and turning the workload into 88.3 yards from scrimmage per game. He’s also a regular in the end zone with nine touchdowns. The matchup is also favorable with FO ranking the Cowboys 26th defending the run and 20th defending backs as receivers. Pick another place to be contrarian and lock Gordon into your lineups.

Latavius Murray (MIN): $6,500 @ Lions
Murray and Jerick McKinnon are basically splitting work, and the matchup is good for both. The former is a two-down bruiser who also is the better bet for goal-line work, and the latter is an asset as a receiver but also a solid runner. With FanDuel awarding just a half-point per reception, my preference is to use Murray and bank on him reaching pay dirt. The former Raider rushed for two touchdowns last week and has scored at least one touchdown on the ground in three of his last four games. He hasn’t been a dud from a yardage perspective, either. Murray’s tallied 163 yards rushing in his last two games combined, and four games ago he rushed for 113 yards on 18 carries. I’m less bullish on him tallying a big yardage output than his odds of extending his touchdown streak to three games, though, with the Vikings favored by three points, the game script should help him push for 15-20 carries for the sixth straight week and nab a useful rushing yardage total. Getting back to the touchdown odds, the Lions have allowed the second most rushing touchdowns (10) to running backs this year, hence why I’m bullish on his odds of rumbling for another score this week.

Wide Receiver

Adam Thielen (MIN): $8,300 @ Lions
Thielen’s been outstanding this season and among receivers, he ranks sixth in targets (96), tied for fifth in receptions (62), second in receiving yards per game (91.6), and tied for 31st in touchdown receptions (three). His excellence alone would warrant usage, but a tweet from ESPN’s Mike Clay further enhanced the case for using Thielen this week. According to Clay’s linked tweet, Detroit’s top corner (and the eighth-ranked corner overall at Pro Football Focus), Darius Slay, doesn’t travel to the slot in shadow coverage. According to PlayerProfiler.com, Stefon Diggs has been in the slot on just 9.3% of his plays this year, and Thielen has played 48.6% of his snaps from the slot (a number that’s likely partly depressed by Diggs missing two games this year), setting up a Slay on Diggs matchup and leaving Thielen facing weaker corners. Gamers who opt to spin down from Cousins to one of the cheaper signal callers will likely use the bulk of their savings to roster similarly priced Keenan Allen ($8,000) after his massive game last week — though there are other ways to get there — but my preference is clearly to use Cousins, Thielen, and spread the salary around elsewhere.

Josh Doctson (WAS): $6,600 vs. Giants
None of the noteworthy players on any of the teams are likely to go super low owned on just a three-team slate, but I think Doctson will be lower owned than cheaper teammate Jamison Crowder ($6,300) as well as lower owned than he should be in general. The second-year wideout tied his single-game highs of seven targets and four receptions for his second game in a row while also setting a new high for receiving yards (81). Already a big-play threat (three touchdowns and 15.8 yards per reception this year), he’s now seeing increased volume, too. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF) player grades, Janoris Jenkins has a lower coverage grade than slot corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie this season. PFF projects Doctson to see Jenkins on the perimeter with Crowder drawing DRC in the slot. The combination of a better matchup and bigger-play ability tilts the scale in favor of Doctson over Crowder’s steadier diet of targets.

Kenny Golladay (DET): $5,800 vs. Vikings
While Slay shadows for Detroit’s defense, Xavier Rhodes does so for Minnesota. He grades out well in coverage and overall at PFF, and he’s a threat to the production of Marvin Jones Jr. and Golden Tate, but not so much to Golladay. The rookie receiver’s greatest threat to production is sharing time as the third receiver with T.J. Jones. Golladay offers a better vertical threat to Stafford than T.J. Jones, and the former out snapped the latter (35 to 29) last week. Golladay’s averaging an eye-popping 19.8 yards per reception and has two touchdowns on just 11 receptions this year. He’s only been targeted six times in two games since returning from an injury, but he’s made them count reeling in four receptions for 116 yards. Golladay’s a big-play dart throw.

Tight End

Vernon Davis (WAS): $6,400 vs. Giants
Tight end is a two horse race on this slate between Davis and his opponent, Evan Engram. With Cousins on this roster — not to mention 1,400 other reasons — Davis is the play. Jordan Reed appears unlikely to play after missing practice again yesterday while still dealing with a hamstring injury, removing a potential road block to targets. Davis has reached or exceeded 65 yards receiving in three straight games and six of his last seven. He leads the Redskins with 52.7 receiving yards per game, and he’s a home-run hitter with 16.0 yards per reception. His ability to stretch the field should be on full display against a Giants defense that’s permitted the third most 20-plus yard receptions (39) and is tied for the fourth most 40-plus yard pass plays (nine) allowed, per NFL.com. Tight ends have drubbed the Giants, and they’ve yielded the most FanDuel points per game to the position this year.

Kicker

Kai Forbath (MIN): $4,900 @ Lions
Forbath missed two of three field-goal attempts last week, but he’s otherwise been sharp connecting on 23 of 26 (88.5%) this year. He’s also demonstrated a big leg knocking through a staggering five of five 50-plus yard field-goal attempts this season. Forbath is tied to a betting favorite and kicking indoors.

Defense/Special Teams

Chargers (LAC): $4,200 @ Cowboys
I analyzed the Chargers as a defensive streaming option for gamers in season-long leagues, and my reasons for liking them in season-long leagues applies to also liking them in daily games this week (not to mention that they’re inexplicably the second cheapest defense). You can check that piece out here. I’ll note that since the linked article has been published, Cowboys left tackle Tyron Smith’s odds of playing Thursday have increased. He practiced Tuesday and looks to be trending in the right direction. At less than 100% there’s still a chance he struggles with Joey Bosa, and Melvin Ingram is likely to give them fits on the other side of the line. The Chargers defense is elite and packs tons of fantasy scoring upside even in non-Nathan Peterman matchups.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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