For whatever reason, there have been nowhere near as many safe value plays this season and in years past. Finally, this week, we have been handed several great options that will allow us to spend up on the two studs of the week. Let’s jump in and see what the week offers us.

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Quarterback

Matthew Stafford (DET vs CLE): $8,200

We’ve got four quality options this week with Stafford, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh McCown. If you want to spend up at wide receiver, or I’d suggest upgrading to Gronk at tight end, any of those picks should hit value. Stafford, however, may be the top value of the year at quarterback. He has been steady all season and throwing an insane amount of passes lately (130 in the past 3 weeks). When you consider that Cleveland is actually great against the run and lousy against the pass, you can bank on another 35+ passes and 2x value.

Running Back

Le’Veon Bell (PIT @ IND): $9,400

Like me, you’ve probably been burned one too many times this year trying to save some money at the running back position. The league is so fond of split backfield situations now that we almost have to spend up to find safety. Bell is getting an unprecedented workload of late and although the expected game script doesn’t bode particularly well for 35+ touches, the matchup is about as good as it gets. He should crush value even with 25 touches in this game.

Leonard Fournette (JAC vs LAC): $8,700

If it is consistency you are looking for, start your lineup with Fournette and move on from there. He has at least 13 FanDuel points in every contest this season. For comparison’s sake, LeSean McCoy has only done that three times all year! The Chargers’ defense is much improved, but are still among the worst units in the league against the run. Seeing that Fournette hasn’t played a snap in 28 days, he should be fresh and ready to go for another 20+ performance this weekend.

Wide Receiver

Golden Tate (DET vs CLE): $7,400
Marvin Jones Jr. (DET vs CLE): $6,400

Stafford is such a good play this week that I am prepared to triple-down on him. The Lions should throw multiple touchdown passes and I’d bet at least one goes to this pair. Tate has at least 7 receptions in each of his past three games and over 86 yards each time. Jones, meanwhile, may be the hottest receiver in football with over 95 yards in each of his past three games. Stafford has fed him 36 targets in that time. The price on these two is almost too good to be true.

Sterling Shepard (NYG @ SF): $5,700

Say hello to the play of the week. Shepard saw 9 targets in his return to the action last week against a quality Rams defense. This week, the Giants draw the 49ers, who can’t seem to stop anyone this year. Shepard should once again see the lion’s share of targets and is a good bet to haul in 7+ balls for 75+ yards, which is enough to hit value at his crazy-low price point.

Tight End

Garrett Celek (SF vs NYG): $4,500

If you can afford to spend up for Rob Gronkowski or even Cameron Brate this week, both should see a ton of targets against subpar opponents. In my lineup, however, I am fine with settling for Celek, who is replacing the injured George Kittle. Rookie quarterbacks like C.J. Beathard tend to target tight ends more frequently than other quarterbacks. Add in the fact that the Giants have somehow allowed a top 12 fantasy tight end every single week and I don’t really need to tell you that even the 49ers backup is a quality option at the site-minimum salary.

Kicker

Robbie Gould (SF vs NYG): $4,500

The 49ers offense isn’t usually dangerous enough to get a bunch of scoring opportunities, but the Giants should afford them the chance this weekend as they are one of the 8 teams in football to surrender 10 or more fantasy points per game to kickers. Gould is the best option at the site-minimum price point this week, which we are restricted to based on the rest of our lineup.

Defense

Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC vs LAC): $5,200

It is to the point where you would seriously have to consider the Jags for even $6,000 against an offense like the Patriots. They are three standard deviations above the league average this season in fantasy production. We are talking about a historically good defense. Phillip Rivers is a quality NFL quarterback, but the over/under on his production is 65% lower than usual. That should tell you everything you need to know.

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Thanks for reading. If you haven’t already, please check out the FantasyPros Football Podcast (below) that I co-host with Mike Tagliere. Good luck this season.

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