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Fantasy Football: Buy/Sell (Week 12)

Fantasy Football: Buy/Sell (Week 12)

Whether you’re buying or selling, here’s a list of players to consider making a move on before it’s too late.

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Players to Buy

Rob Gronkowski (TE – NE)
This may be the cheapest you’ll ever be able to acquire Gronkowski, as he’s coming off two sub-par performances, though anyone without Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz understands what that’s like every other week. Gronk is a game-changer at one of the toughest positions to predict in fantasy football, so why not buy him when he’s gotten a few of his bad games out of the way? It’s typically around 7.0 points to finish as a TE1, a number that Gronk has hit in six of his nine games. Nice.

Dez Bryant (WR – DAL)
Now that he’s gotten a lot of his rough matchups out of the way, the sky looks a bit clearer for Bryant for the remainder of the season. He’ll play against the Chargers, Redskins (Josh Norman isn’t shadowing), Giants (Janoris Jenkins has been roasted recently), Raiders, and Seahawks (who just lost Richard Sherman). So while this looked bleak at the start of the season, Bryant could turn his season around when it matters most to fantasy owners.

Kareem Hunt (RB – KC)
Call me nuts, but I’m buying. Not to say that I’m expecting early-season Hunt when trading for him, but a running back who sees 20 touches on a regular basis? Absolutely. His upcoming schedule is also among the best in football, as he’ll play against the Bills, Jets, Raiders, Chargers, and Dolphins to close out the fantasy season. The worst matchup of them is the Jets, and that’s one where the Chiefs should be in control of the game, leading to plenty of volume. His owners will likely sell him for less than he’s worth at this point – they’re frustrated.

Lamar Miller (RB – HOU)
This hurts to type, as I’m not a huge Miller fan. He’s the younger version of Frank Gore in fantasy leagues. This is no stab at Gore in his prime, but I’m referring to what we expect in the box scores. Miller is slightly higher, totaling in between 63 and 96 yards in 9-of-10 games this year. That’s not going to win you a fantasy championship, but it’s also not going to lose you one. He wouldn’t be in the buy column if the Texans didn’t just lose D’Onta Foreman for the season, but they did, so here he is. Miller is locked into 18-plus touches every single week.

Chris Hogan (WR – NE)
It has felt like an eternity since Hogan’s owners have had him in their lineup, which means it’s likely that they forgot how much of an impact he had in fantasy football. Heading into Week 10 (where he was inactive), Hogan had seen just as many targets as Brandin Cooks (54), caught as many passes (33), and scored two more touchdowns (5 to 3). He’s on the borderline WR1 conversation when he’s in the lineup, though he may not come with the 150-yard, two-touchdown upside of some of the elite WR1s.

Drew Brees (QB – NO)
You’ve heard me talk about his expected positive touchdown regression, but it’s now time to look at the remaining games on his schedule. He only plays on the road twice and just one of them will be outdoors (Los Angeles). His other four games will be inside domes (Atlanta, three home games). If you’ve followed Brees’ career, you want him inside domes.

Dion Lewis (RB – NE)
It seems like every running back but Dion Lewis has made it into Bill Belichick’s doghouse this year, as James White‘s seen his snaps decline every week since Week 4, Mike Gillislee‘s been inactive the last two weeks, and Rex Burkhead fumbled last week. Because of that, Lewis was used more in the passing game against the Raiders, raising his ceiling to RB1 levels, though it won’t cost that to acquire him. His remaining schedule also just might be the best among running backs.

Samaje Perine (RB – WAS)
Look, I know that Perine didn’t look good and was ragged on prior to last week’s performance, but we’re talking about one of maybe 15 running backs who is now locked into a guaranteed 15 touches per week. On top of that, he plays on a Redskins team that often finds themselves in the red zone. It’s not as if Rob Kelley or Chris Thompson are premier goal-line running backs, but even they had rushed for five touchdowns through nine games. Perine is kind of an RB2 by default.

Players to Sell

Julio Jones (WR – ATL)
It might not sound like the best idea ever, but Jones is going to have a rough time closing out the season. In what looked like a great matchup before the season, Jones will see the Saints twice in the fantasy playoffs, and we’ve seen Marshon Lattimore hold some big names in check. He’ll also play against the Vikings and Xavier Rhodes in Week 13, and he’s been arguably the best cornerback in all of football this year. Not that I don’t love Jones the player, I do, but his schedule does nothing but further cloud his outlook in 2017.

Carlos Hyde (RB – SF)
If you didn’t sell prior to the bye week, you should now. The schedule for Hyde is just brutal down the stretch, as he’ll play against the Seahawks (though that’s not nearly as bad as it used to look), Bears, Texans, Titans, and Jaguars, all teams that you can make the case for top-10 against the run. If Jimmy Garoppolo takes over as the starter, it may actually hurt Hyde because he may not dump it off as much as Beathard did.

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
There are a lot of people out there who are assuming that Mixon will bounce back after a few bad matchups, but the issue is that the bad matchups don’t really stop. After playing the Broncos last week, he’ll play against the Browns (rank top-10), Steelers (top-8), Bears (top-16), and Vikings (No. 1) before playing the Lions in Week 16. The offensive line is doing him no favors as he’s getting hit within 0.7 yards of getting the ball while no other running back is getting hit within less than 1.1 yards. He’s going to be good in this league, but between his offensive line, his schedule, and the coaching staff saying they want Gio Bernard to get more involved… it’s not going to be this year.

Jarvis Landry (WR – MIA)
Do you think that Landry is going to score in each of the next five games? Good, me neither. He’s now scored in 6-of-7 games and has exceeded his good fortune. If you expect it to continue, you’re just betting against the odds. Landry hadn’t scored more than five touchdowns in any of his first three seasons. He’s actually totaled 48 or fewer yards in 6-of-10 games this year, though the touchdowns have propped up his fantasy performances.

Davante Adams (WR – GB)
Adams is a good NFL wide receiver and will likely remain the most productive of the Packers wide receivers going forward, but he’s going to be wildly inconsistent with Brett Hundley under center. Think about it, how many wide receivers do you trust on teams that consistently score less than 20 points? Not many because they won’t continually put up fantasy points. He’s got a tough matchup this week against the Steelers, so it may be wise to see what you can get while he’s coming off a solid game. He has a one-point floor with Hundley, as we’ve already seen that back in Week 7.

Larry Fitzgerald (WR – ARI)
After a cake matchup with the Texans, Fitzgerald will now have two brutal matchups against the Jaguars and Rams secondaries, two teams that have combined to allow just eight top-24 performances to wide receivers all year… combined. Fitzgerald still has something left in the tank, but this is more about tough matchups and shoddy quarterback play. If you can get close to the WR1 value for him (where he sits on the season), I’d take it and run. You want to eliminate the possibility of a bad quarterback performance as much as possible for the fantasy playoffs.



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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.

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