Fantasy Football: Dynasty Waiver Wire Stashes (Week 13)
Peter Howard looks for dynasty league waiver wire stashes for Week 13.
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Welcome back to the Dynasty Waiver Wire! I am looking for under-owned or undervalued players in dynasty. I’m listing players you won’t hear about in most waiver wire columns until much later. As often happens when trying to predict the future, I get it wrong sometimes.
So I also try to give a brief but honestly description of the player’s potential range of outcomes. You can decide on whether they have enough to make them worth holding in your league, or if it’s just someone to put on your watch list.
I list every column in order of preference, but they are not ranked this way through the weeks. So, be sure to check out previous editions for other ideas.
Chester Rogers (WR – IND)
Chester Rogers has seen a 13.5% target market share increase between Week 9 and Week 11. I haven’t been able to go through the target share numbers for Week 12 yet, but with four targets for three receptions against Tennessee, I think the trend is holding steady. Rogers is 6′ tall and weighs 195 lbs and has been on the Colts since 2016 as a UDFA. His best athletic metric is his agility which ranks in the 81st percentile though he also has reasonable Burst (51st percentile).
He broke out early at Grambling State with a 73rd percentile Breakout Age and a 33rd percentile College Dominator. While nothing on his profile stands out by itself, his overall metrics are positive and the continued increase in targets over the last few weeks indicates he has earned a role which could continue going forward. He has a 15.1% target share in the last few weeks.
Ricky Seals-Jones (TE – ARI)
Am I late to the party on a UDFA? It’s not a familiar feeling, but it happens, then again Ricky Seals-Jones (RSJ) has been lucky with ultra efficiency on very few snaps. He has also been targeted the majority of the time he is on the field, so the question is will he get more work and will he be able to find a manageable level of efficiency. He was listed as a WR coming out, and his numbers don’t jump off the page for that position. To be honest, they are not much better as a tight end, though.
I try to be “early” on players for this column rather than mention players after big games (Seals-Jones now has three touchdowns in two games). However, he’s still largely an unknown, and I think a little information from a dynasty perspective might be helpful. RSJ is big for a wide receiver, listed at 6’5″ tall and 243 lbs but his production numbers stink – he went over 500 yards just once at Texas A&M and he never caught more than four touchdowns in a season.
On the other hand, he is slightly undersized for a tight end – 250 lbs or more is a general benchmark for an every-down player at tight end – and while his receiving production jumps up to the 27th percentile per PlayerProfiler.com, that’s still not great. At 22 years old he is very young and is mostly capitating on being a mismatch between a receiving background and positive variance. Will it continue?
Well, not at this efficiency level, but will he gain a bigger role? I don’t know, the positional crossover isn’t unheard of, but it’s uncommon enough to be an outlier. His athletic measurables are poor even with his conversion into a different positional pool – he doesn’t rank above the 25th percentile in any category. However, production at the NFL level is an indicator all of its own, and his recent connection with Blaine Gabbert means that he should be a prospective add in most dynasty leagues.
Blaine Gabbert (QB – ARI)
Blaine Gabbert has been playing better in relief of Drew Stanton and Carson Palmer. Originally drafted in the first round by the Jaguars in 2011, Gabbert has been terrible and a below average player in relief for various teams. His college QBR was in the 13th percentile though he did test to be very athletic including an 83rd percentile Agility score as listed on PlayProfiler.com. I wouldn’t be overly optimistic about his future, especially since this Week 12 win over the Jaguars had more to do with which bad quarterback was worse at the wrong time.
But at 28 years old, he’s going to be in the league for some time yet and with the questions surrounding Carson Palmer’s age and health makes him more interesting. He could earn and achieve a Trevor Siemian level starter role at least. He is likely rostered in deep two-QB leagues (where he would make the most sense), but he has slightly higher add potential in shallower leagues now after two solid performances.
David Fluellen (RB – TEN)
With DeMarco Murray struggling this year Derrick Henry continues to be the positions biggest hype/tease candidate. It’s always worth investigating the depth at the running back position when there is a popular “breakout” candidate – if only because of our consistent inability to predict the correct handcuff in any given backfield. While Fluellen isn’t the most exciting prospect, he does have a 53rd Percentile College Dominator rating according to PlayProfiler.com and a history of pass catching (71st percentile College target Share) out of Toledo.
He also ranks above the 60th percentile in both Burst and Agility. He is 5’11” tall and weighs 224 lbs, but his 40-time (4.71) is in the 13th percentile. He should only be added in the deepest of leagues, but he is a name to keep an eye on as this backfield, hopefully, begins to evolve.