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Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 10

Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 10

Another week of NFL action, and another reminder of just how little control we really have. This week’s theme was fighting. Most if not all broadcast commentators will act disgusted, but chances are most fans are probably at least a little bit entertained by the rare show of emotion. Unless, of course, it’s your fantasy player making the wrong decisions. Chances are A.J. Green and Mike Evans are owned in approximately 100% of serious leagues, meaning that your or someone you know was less than pleased with this past week’s violent developments. And you, or that person you know, didn’t do anything wrong. Were you supposed to sit Green just because the Jaguars have a great secondary? If you did do that, you aren’t smart; you got lucky. Evans’ owners will get the worst of it, having to deal with this past week’s goose egg and go without the first-round pick this upcoming week as well.

Fantasy definitely has an element of skill not present in most games of chance. But you still need good luck.

Overvalued

Carson Wentz (PHI): ECR – 6 / Finished – QB4 / LOSS
Marshawn Lynch (OAK): ECR – 23 / Finished – RB5 / LOSS
Doug Baldwin (SEA): ECR – 7 / Finished – WR5 / LOSS
Jason Witten (DAL): ECR – 7 / Finished – TE37-T / WIN

Undervalued

Joe Flacco (BAL): ECR – 28 / Finished – QB17 / WIN
Orleans Darkwa (NYG): ECR – 24 / Finished – RB20-T / WIN
Corey Davis (TEN): ECR – 50 / Finished – WR52-T / LOSS
Eric Ebron (DET) ECR – 20 / Finished – TE22 / LOSS

Speaking of getting screwed. Let’s get the bad calls out of the way first, though. Doubting Carson Wentz was foolish. He and the Eagles are the real deal and are all matchup-proof at this point. I read way too much into Doug Baldwin‘s quiet day against Houston. It was far too early to buy in on Corey Davis. The same goes for Eric Ebron, though his future isn’t quite as bright.

But now let’s look at my running back picks. Orleans Darkwa had 48 yards through two drives and not even one quarter. You might look at the final score and say “well yeah, the game got out of hand and they couldn’t run the ball.” But a big part of the reason that the game got out of hand so quickly was because the Giants benched their running back with the hot hand and decided it would be a good time to devleop the youth, sending in Wayne Gallman to play in his stead. And Gallman was good… until he wasn’t, and lost the ball. They had a guy tearing up the oppositions vulnerable run defense and felt it wise to sit the hot hand. He still ended up being okay, but he could have been so much better. Marshawn Lynch has me equally bitter. He’s not a good prospect going forward, but he just happened to explode for his best game of the season by far right when it looked like his place on the team was in jeopardy.

On the bright side, the bye weeks are slowing down and that means our options are opening back up. Let’s see if I can make the most of it.

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Quarterback

Overvalued: Dak Prescott (DAL): @ ATL; ECR – QB3
When I first went through and did my preliminary selections, Dak actually had the highest ECR among quarterbacks. It’s since dropped to three, but I still think that’s too high. Atlanta is right in the middle of the pack as far as fantasy QB points allowed, but no quarterback facing the Falcons has scored more than two touchdowns, and they’ve only allowed 300 yards passing once – way back in Week 2 against Aaron Rodgers. Furthermore, Dak could be without any combination of Ezekiel Elliot, Dez Bryant, and Terrance Williams for this road game. Nobody is doubting Prescott’s talent at this point, but everything is stacked against him this week, making his top-three ranking confusing at best.

Undervalued: Josh McCown (NYJ): @ TB; ECR – QB11
In case anybody is still in the dark: Josh McCown is having what may be the best year of his lengthy career. His completion percentage is over 70% and the season is half over. He still manages to throw a head-scratching interception once every other game, but otherwise the seasoned vet provides a shockingly high floor. This week he’s going up against a Bucs team allowing the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing fantasy quarterbacks. Tampa Bay could also end up struggling to keep McCown off the field, as they’ll be without both Jameis Winston and Mike Evans. He isn’t being terribly undervalued with an ECR of 11, but that’s the difference between starting and sitting in a standard-sized league, and McCown needs to be started this week.

Running Back

Overvalued: Mark Ingram (NO): @ BUF; ECR – RB8
This is probably an overreaction, but ranking Ingram as a top-10 option at RB this week as Alvin Kamara continues to impress and command more work seems foolish right now. I, for one, happen to buy into the narrative that Sean Payton will opt to play whatever running back is not Mark Ingram whenever he gets a chance. But even if the two split carries evenly, Buffalo’s defense has been fairly stout against the run – at least, until Thursday’s game against the Jets. But when an anomaly pops up on a Thursday, you can safely write it off as just that – an anomaly.

Undervalued: James White (NE): @ DEN; ECR – RB36
There are certain matchups that just happen to scream “James White game,” and this is just another one of those. New England could be looking at a trip to Mile High without Chris Hogan and right tackle Marcus Cannon. That means quick throws and less competition for targets, both of which behoove White. Don’t forget that White is the second most targeted running back in the league on a per-game basis, behind only Christian McCaffrey. As great as Tom Brady is, he struggles immensely in Denver, so you should expect him to lean on one of his favorite security blankets. White’s ceiling isn’t particularly high due to a lack of red zone usage, but his part in the Patriots receiving game is too substantial to rank him as a(n) RB4, even in standard scoring.

Wide Receiver

Overvalued: Demaryius Thomas (DEN): vs. NE; ECR – WR11
Last week, Thomas might have been the only Bronco who deserved to leave the game with his head held high. However, the Eagles’ secondary is a major weakness for that team, and while New England’s defensive backs have certainly had their struggles, as a unit they’re immensely more talented. The Patriots have mostly contained Thomas in their last few meetings, and you can bet that Belichick and company will be scheming heavily against him once more this week. It will all come down to whether the return of Stephon Gilmore is ultimately a good thing or a bad thing for New England. On one hand, their defense has been much better without him, but on the other, he played well in his latest game when he was only asked to shadow Mike Evans. Thomas is exactly the type of receiver the Patriots brought Gilmore in to handle, and as long as the latter can minimize his mental errors (a lot to ask, admittedly), Thomas won’t be sniffing his current ECR.

Undervalued: Marquise Goodwin (SF): vs. NYG; ECR – WR39
As the saying goes, somebody has to catch the ball. Pierre Garcon was a surprise addition to the team’s injured reserve list when what was thought to be a manageable neck injury took a turn, and young up-and-coming tight end George Kittle is also going to be out this week. We saw what kind of success Jared Goff had with the deep ball last week against the Giants, but to be fair this week’s circumstances are a bit different: Janoris Jenkins will be playing, and the 49ers aren’t the Rams. But if Jimmy Garropolo can find his way onto the field this week, Goodwin’s ceiling will be tough to ignore. If it does end up being a continuation of the C.J. Beathard show, Goodwin should still be in line for enough deep balls and overall volume to consider starting him as a flex.

Tight End

Overvalued: Cameron Brate (TB): vs. NYJ; ECR – TE5
While one could supposedly make the argument that Ryan Fitzpatrick is an upgrade over Jameis Winston based on the way the two have played this year, everyone should at least be able to agree that it’s bad news for Cameron Brate. He and Winston have clear chemistry, and that’s what Brate has depended on to stay relevant as a starting fantasy tight end. While his target share could see a slight bump thanks to Mike Evans’ suspension, the Jets have two fantastic young safeties who can make his life miserable whenever he’s running routes. The Jets might seem like a favorable matchup for tight ends, but this is where Evans’ absence really hurts, as it allows New York to scheme more specifically against guys like Brate.

Undervalued: Eric Ebron (DET): vs. CLE; ECR – TE15
He burned me last week, but I’m going back for more. Ebron is slowly but surely earning is way back into the good graces of Detroit’s offensive decision-makers, and Cleveland is allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The Lions’ ground attack isn’t close to where it needs to be to do any damage to the Browns front seven, meaning that even if this should be a decisive victory, Matthew Stafford will need to throw to move the ball. Now, Ebron still has to compete with Marvin Jones and Golden Tate, which is no small feat, but he only needs a tiny taste of what they’re getting to beat his current ECR. He is still being out-snapped by Darren Fells, which is concerning, but Fells has become less involved as a pass-catcher as the weeks have gone on.


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Shane McCormack is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him @ShaneMcCormack_.

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