There are few skills more valuable in fantasy football than the ability to identify a shootout. Russell Wilson, DeShaun Watson, and Will Fuller’s attendance in lineups versus benches was likely the deciding factor in thousands of fantasy bouts in Week 8. There was no reason to think this game would be such a high-scoring affair, but those of us who left one of those players on our benches can’t help but feel guilty after the fact. But games like these are what make this so fun – it just takes one game, one play, to alter an entire week of preparation and anticipation. That’s what we signed up for when we decided to play this game.
Overvalued
DeShaun Watson (HOU): ECR – 16 / Finished – QB2 / LOSS
C.J. Anderson (DEN): ECR – 7 / Finished – RB21 / WIN
Dez Bryant (DAL): ECR – 5 / Finished – WR35 / WIN
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (NYJ): ECR – 8 / Finished – TE18 / WIN
Undervalued
Alex Smith (KC): ECR – 14 / Finished – QB12 / WIN
James White (NE): ECR – 30 / Finished – RB20 / WIN
Adam Thielen (MIN): ECR – 17 / Finished – WR6 / WIN
Vernon Davis (IND) ECR – 22 / Finished – TE23 / LOSS
I wasn’t particularly confident about my selections going into last week, so color me surprised to say that it was one of my best of the season. While I was fairly sure C.J. and Dez were definitely overvalued, I thought pretty much all of my undervalued picks were too risky, especially Thielen who was already ranked fairly high and James White who was depending on receiving work to elevate his score in standard scoring.
If we were to quantify my success in terms of quality of calls, however, my decision to bet against DeShaun Watson would work heavily against me. That man is a stud, and at the time of writing, it’s just come out that his season is over, which is truly a shame.
But this isn’t the platform for discussing breaking news. Let’s try to keep up the pace with this week’s selections.
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Quarterback
Overvalued: Carson Wentz (PHI): vs. DEN; ECR – QB6
Philly has the best record in the league, mostly thanks to the progression of Carson Wentz. He leads all QBs in touchdown passes with 19 (tied with DeShaun Watson) and is third in passing yards. If the Eagles have one glaring weakness it’s their offensive line. Carson’s 22 sacks are tied for the 5th-most this season among quarterbacks, and while Denver has been middle-0f-the-pack in that area so far this year, we all know what kind of talent they’re boasting in that front-seven. Wentz will lean heavily on Zach Ertz, which should provide him a reasonable floor, but the matchup also limits his ceiling too significantly to put him in the top 10.
Undervalued: Joe Flacco (BAL): @ TEN; ECR – QB28
Before leaving Thursday’s game against the Dolphins after sustaining a shot to the head, Joe Flacco actually looked pretty good. He’s reportedly good to go for this week, and this matchup against the Titans is perhaps more favorable than the raw data would indicate. The Titans are allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but they could easily be top-10 or even top-5 if their schedule wasn’t so easy. They’ve played seven games this season, and four of those have been against non-starting caliber QBs: Blake Bortles, Jay Cutler, Jacoby Brissett, and the Browns’ weekly mix of players. The other three actually good QBs they faced combined for 10 TDs and only one interception. At his current ECR, Flacco is essentially listed as the worst QB option this week among actual starters, and that’s too steep based on how he played last week and who he’s playing this week.
Running Back
Overvalued: Marshawn Lynch (OAK): @ MIA; ECR – RB23
Nobody in their right mind would want to play Marshawn Lynch this week. Just because he’s no longer suspended doesn’t mean any of his owners are going to just slide him right into their lineups. His season high in carries came in Week 1, where many speculated the team was just easing him back into action. But instead of becoming more involved, the Raiders have been using him less. Since he got himself suspended last week, the team was forced to lean on their young tandem of DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard, with the former player having a better game than Marshawn has had all season. His role is heavily questionable, and Miami is a top-10 fantasy run defense. Stay far away.
Undervalued: Orleans Darkwa (NYG): vs. LAR; ECR – RB24
This is a risky pick based on the Giants’ anemic offense and inconsistent running game that’s been a problem for years now, but sometimes you have to trust the talent and the matchup. Darkwa single-handedly willed his team to an improbable victory over the Broncos, running for over 100 yards and succeeding where the likes of LeSean McCoy and Ezekiel Elliot had failed against a stout Broncos run defense. For whatever reason, he was called upon much less frequently the following week, but even in limited action was clearly the best backfield option. The Rams happen to be the second-most generous defense to opposing running backs in fantasy, thanks in large part to their tendency to allow big plays to otherwise underwhelming players (Alfred Morris, Chris Ivory). In a week with Melvin Gordon, Le’Veon Bell, and Jordan Howard all on bye, Darkwa is a high-upside plug-and-play.
Wide Receiver
Overvalued: Doug Baldwin (SEA): vs. WAS; ECR – WR7
In a week where Russell Wilson threw for over 450 yards, Doug Baldwin somehow ended up with just 54 receiving yards on the day. While we don’t want to overreact to just one game, it makes you wonder how clear-cut of a No. 1 wideout Baldwin really is. Even if last week was a complete aberration, this week’s matchup is far from ideal as Seattle plays the 4th-stingiest fantasy WR defense in the league. Baldwin is too inconsistent of a player to rate as a top-10 option against a tough secondary.
Undervalued: Corey Davis (MIN): vs. BAL; ECR – WR50
If you don’t already own Davis in your league(s), then don’t bother checking the waiver wire now – he’s long gone. The fifth overall pick in the most recent NFL Draft, Davis was off to a hot start as a potential No. 1 receiver, being targeted 10 times in his debut game against the Raiders. He’s been out with an injury ever since, but his absence hasn’t exactly prompted one of his contemporaries to step up into that top role. Only Rishard Matthews has come close, but his 6.9 targets per game don’t scream stud either. Davis has the talent, and the role he left remains available. It will come down to how conservatively the team ends up using him, but based on the fact that the team is coming off of a bye week and that Davis has been a full participant in practice, there’s plenty of room for high hopes.
Tight End
Overvalued: Jason Witten (DAL): vs. KC; ECR – TE8
Jason Witten has been the definition of up-and-down this season, but my problem with his current ECR is that there’s nothing out there to indicate that this week will be particularly favorable. Kansas City is extremely average against tight ends, so it’s not the matchup. Maybe the team will be throwing a bit more often with Zeke suspended, but it probably won’t be enough to substantially impact Witten’s workload. His best two games of the season came against the Giants and Broncos, who are currently the most and third-most exploitable TE defenses. His current ECR is optimistic without reason.
Undervalued: Eric Ebron (DET): vs. @ GB; ECR – TE20
What’s left of the relationship between Eric Ebron and the Detroit Lions might not be pretty, but the team may have no choice but kick his tires one last time before his rookie contract expires at the end of this season. Detroit is in the midst of a massive red zone crisis, and while Ebron has been a drop machine on several occasions, not just this season but in years past, they’d be wise to give him more chances given the current state of their offense (namely their inability to run block). The matchup is as far from optimal as possible, but I still think there’s a chance Ebron could surprise some people this week.
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Shane McCormack is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him @ShaneMcCormack_.
