Finally, we can breathe again.
The heaviest bye weeks are over. We’ve gone seven days without a quarterback suffering a season-ending injury. There are some good Week 10 matchups to exploit.
Put it all together and I was able to write up 11 quarterbacks I feel legitimately good about before I had to try something crazy with the final spot. Let’s get to it.
As a reminder, this isn’t a pure start/sit column-weird stuff happens every week, so there are a few far-fetched but plausible QB1 predictions sprinkled in.
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1) Russell Wilson (SEA): @ Arizona
Wilson had three straight weeks as a top-six quarterback, so he seemed like a pretty safe bet against a bad Arizona pass defense.
I suppose “safe” was the right word. 19.4 points should be enough for his 6th QB1 performance, but for a guy who’s been living in the top 5, I was hoping for a bigger game. That’s why we look at the Vegas lines: Seattle’s modest 23.75 implied point total had it right.
2) Matthew Stafford (DET): vs. Cleveland
Stafford is playing great lately, throwing for 300 yards in three straight games. So he really doesn’t need a home matchup against Cleveland’s 28th ranked pass defense (per Football Outsiders), but he gets it all the same. On top of that, with one of the worst running games in the league, Detroit shouldn’t even bother challenging the Browns’ secretly dominant run defense (allowing 2.9YPC, lowest in the league). It’s going to be a high-volume, high-efficiency performance.
3) Dak Prescott (DAL): @ Atlanta
Prescott has been a consistent QB1 since entering the league. What’s really changed as the season has progressed is his ceiling. He’s finished as a top-three quarterback in three of his last four games. Week 10 sets up for another big performance.
With Ezekiel Elliott‘s legal soap opera finally played out, Prescott gets his first game as the undisputed focal point of the offense. Averaging just 32.4 attempts per game (18th in the league), any uptick in volume for the uber-efficient Prescott will be a major boon. Especially in a dome game with one of the highest over/unders of the week (50.5).
4) Jared Goff (LAR): vs. Houston
Goff was the top overall quarterback last week on just 22 pass attempts. 22!
That’s crazy, but what’s even crazier is he could do it again this weekend. Houston has already allowed two quarterbacks to finish as the week’s top scorer. With injuries all over the defense, the Texans are allowing 19.3 points to opposing quarterbacks, 4th most in the league. Goff has performed well in every favorable matchup this season, and this one certainly qualifies. He’s a great start for Week 10.
5) Tom Brady (NE): @ Denver
In Brady’s last three games in Denver, he’s completed 51% of his passes and thrown for just four touchdowns. That’s not great, but two things give me hope.
First, while being a dominant real-life defense, Denver hasn’t been a total killer for fantasy purposes. They’ve given up three QB1 performances, most recently last week to Carson Wentz (15/27, 199 yards, four touchdowns). The Broncos offense is just so inept. Opponents are constantly in good spots against Denver.
Second, we saw Brady dink and dunk his way to 333 yards and a score against a strong Chargers pass defense two weeks ago. With three running backs who can catch, plus Gronk running in the middle between Denver’s two stud cornerbacks, the Patriots have the personnel to attack this defense.
6) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): @ Indianapolis
It’s been awhile since we even bothered with Roethlisberger in this space, and with good reason. He has one QB1 finish all season, and it came all the way back in Week 2 (against Minnesota’s stout defense…go figure).
I think this is the week he returns to the top 12. The Colts have already allowed five QB1 finishes (tied for 5th most), and in that regard they’ve actually been lucky. Despite allowing the 2nd most passing yards per game (279.7), they’ve only given up 13 passing touchdowns (15th in the league). After so many weeks of fantasy irrelevance, this could be a monster game.
7) Cam Newton (CAR): vs. Miami
Is I Go To Extremes the most underrated Billy Joel song? Probably.
It’s also been Cam Newton’s season. He’s scored 20 or more points in four games, and 13 or fewer points in his other five. There ain’t no in-betweens.
Week 10 looks like a 20+ week for Cam. Miami has the 30th ranked pass defense according to Football Outsiders, but that’s almost beside the point. Newton has nine or more rushing attempts in each of his last four games. As long as that keeps up, he’s a top 10 option.
8) Drew Brees (NO): @ Buffalo
Brees is entering Leroy-Hoard territory. If you need 15 fantasy points, he’ll get you 18. If you need 20 fantasy points…he’ll get you 18. The lack of blowup games has been disappointing, as Brees has finished better than 10th just once. Still, he’s a safe bet even on the road against Buffalo. The Bills are allowing the 5th fewest points to opposing quarterbacks, but after watching the Jets carve them up last Thursday I’m suddenly not so afraid. Apparently, if you keep trading away defensive starters, you will eventually have a bad defense.
9) Josh McCown (NYJ): @ Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers have the 31st ranked pass defense according to Football Outsiders, and McCown has finished 7th, 6th, 4th, and 15th among quarterbacks over his last four games. McCown is a safe option with upside this week. I know, that sentence is weird. Best not to overthink this one. Let’s move on.
10) Matt Ryan (ATL): vs. Dallas
Maybe if I keep saying this is the week we see the 2016 Atlanta offense, eventually I’ll be right. Maybe. Ryan actually did sneak into the top 12 last week with 18 points, and it could’ve been even better if Julio Jones hadn’t dropped a perfect pass in the end zone.
I like another good game from Ryan this week. The Cowboys’ defense is in the bottom half of the league, and without Elliott they’ll no longer be as able to grind out clock. This looks like the shootout of the week.
11) Tyrod Taylor (BUF): vs. New Orleans
New Orleans is no longer a plus matchup for quarterbacks (allowing just 15 points per game), but Taylor has three straight QB1 weeks since his bye. As we saw last week-when Taylor put up 26 points, approximately 25 of them coming in garbage time, you never want to watch the box score when Taylor is playing. Just trust the numbers will be there when the game ends.
12) C.J. Beathard (SF): vs. New York Giants
I put the notorious CJB at the bottom of my list last week, and he sort of came through. It took 51 attempts, but Beathard got to QB14 for the week. Not bad!
So let’s double down on Beathard, once again at home against a bad defense. Through nine games, the Giants have allowed six QB1 performances (most in the league). They’re 2nd worst in adjusted net yards/attempt. Every day there’s a new report from “anonymous sources” that they’ve quit on their coach. I don’t think this defense can travel across the country and stop the phenomenon that is Beathard.
If he gets replaced at halftime by Jimmy Garoppolo, you can yell at me on Twitter.
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Scott Cedar is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Scott, check out his archive and follow him @scedar015.
