With 10 weeks in the books, it’s time to take another look at the QB leaderboard

 
So…that wasn’t how we drew it up in the preseason. Of the top three, only Wentz was even being drafted in most leagues. Prescott, Stafford, and Cousins were late-round afterthoughts. Goff was coming off a historically bad rookie season. Even Newton, a popular bounce-back candidate, was on the chopping block after three sub-par weeks. C.J. Beathard, who’s played so well that his team just traded a high second-round pick to replace him, has been a QB2 or better in every start.

I knew it’s been a weird season. I didn’t know it had been this weird. Let’s get to the Week 11 QB1s.

 (As a reminder, this isn’t a pure start/sit column-weird stuff happens every week, so there are a few far-fetched but plausible QB1 predictions sprinkled in.)

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1) Tom Brady (NE): vs. Oakland (in Mexico City)
Even in the smog-filled, high-altitude of Mexico City, Brady will finally feel like he can breathe.

Brady’s last two games came against the Chargers and Broncos, two of the best pass rushes in the league. The Raiders…not so much. They rank dead last in sacks, and that lack of pressure has left the secondary to get torn up for 8.9 adjusted yards/attempt (last in the league). As a touchdown favorite in the game with the highest over/under of the week (54), this has the makings of a big game for Brady.

2) Alex Smith (KC): @ New York Giants
Pros: Andy Reid team coming off a bye. Offense ranking 5th in points per game. Seven QB1 weeks for Alex Smith. Opposing defense giving up the most points per game to opposing quarterbacks, most recently 25 to C.J. freaking Beathard.

Cons:

3) Carson Wentz (PHI): @ Dallas
Wentz hasn’t finished lower than 8th among quarterbacks since Week 4. Not much else to say as he heads to Dallas to face a below-average pass defense.

4) Russell Wilson vs. Atlanta
Last week’s 19 point outing was a disappointment for Wilson, who had been averaging over 28 points per game sine his Week 6 bye.

It’s hard to remember when the Seahawks started the season as one of the most inept offenses in the league. They’re up to 11th in points per game (23.4), having largely abandoned the run and put their fate in the hands of Wilson. He’s on pace to smash his previous career high in attempts by 50. The added volume has been a boon for his fantasy output, as he leads all players in fantasy points.

The Falcons have actually been pretty good against quarterbacks, but with Wilson at home and rolling this isn’t the spot to overthink.

5) Dak Prescott (DAL): vs. Philadelphia
It’s hard to go back to Prescott after his line collapsed last week without star tackle Tyron Smith. Prescott never had a chance, getting sacked eight times and throwing for just 176 yards. Smith is set to miss this week’s game…no bueno against a strong Philly front-seven.

That’s the risk. The reward is if he can stay upright long enough to pick apart an Eagles secondary that has already given up six QB1 weeks. With another week to prepare, hopefully the Cowboys have made the necessary adjustments to protect their star quarterback.

6) Drew Brees (NO): vs. Washington
I’m facing Brees this week in a league where I could really use a win, so it’s a good bet this is the week he’ll finally go off.

In all seriousness, you know the risks. The Saints running game is rolling, their defense is much improved, and it all amounts to Brees throwing a lot less than usual. Last Sunday was the second time this season the Saints scored more than 45 points while Brees failed to get even 15 fantasy points. How is that possible?

Even so, he’s playing as efficiently as ever and is due for some positive regression in the touchdown department. Against Washington’s fading pass defense-these guys were responsible for Case Keenum‘s four touchdowns last week-he’s a strong option.

7) Eli Manning (NYG): vs. Kansas City
I was surprised to see Manning ranked just 18th in ECR for this week. He’s been decent since the Giants’ bye, scoring 13.8 points against the Rams followed by a 16.9 performance last week in San Francisco. Decent production in decent spots leads me to believe he can have a big game in a great spot.

At home against the Chiefs is a great spot. Kansas City is allowing 19.1 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, 6th most in the league. They’ve been especially prone to slot receivers, and it just so happens the Giants’ two best receivers are slotman Sterling Shepard and pseudo slotman Evan Engram. Marcus Peters-the only Chiefs player that offers resistance to the pass-just won’t have much to do against this Giants team.

There is risk. The Giants are 10.5 point underdogs and have a dangerously low implied team total of 16.75, which is a major red flag. Plus, they’re the Giants and he’s Eli Manning. Even so, god help me, I love Eli this week. Love.

8) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): vs. Tennessee
It should’ve been smooth sledding for Roethlisberger, at home against the worst pass rush in the league and a secondary that’s not much better.

It doesn’t seem like it, but sometimes fantasy football works the way you expect. Roethlisberger had by far his best game of the season, putting up 29 fantasy points on four touchdowns. Nice to see him crush a matchup after last week’s semi-disappointment in Indy.

9) Kirk Cousins (WAS): @ New Orleans
If you score 27.6 points and finish as the number two quarterback on the week against the Vikings’ stout defense, you get QB1 status the next week. You just do.

Not that Cousins is a sure thing for Week 11. New Orleans now ranks 4th against the pass according to Football Outsiders, and before last week, Cousins had finished as QB19 and QB25 as his offensive line melted away.

What I think you’re going to see is Cousins throwing upwards of 50 times, as the Redskins will need to keep up with the Saints’ offense (sporting this week’s highest implied point total). They’re certainly not going to do that running it with Samaje Perine.

10) Philip Rivers (LAC): vs. Buffalo
I guess Buffalo chose to honor the late Tom Petty by free fallin’ out into nothing?

Touching, but for those Buffalo fans who thought the playoff drought might finally be ending it’s a real heartbreaker. (See what I did there?)

The Bills have allowed 81 points and 813 total yards over their last two games, getting blown out in both. Now they’re turning to fifth-round rookie Nathan Peterman. On the road. Against the Chargers’ elite pass rush. In his first start.

That’s not going to go well, and it’s going to have Los Angeles in favorable situations all day. There’s probably less ceiling here than you’d like: Rivers hasn’t finished higher than 8th in any week, and his 14.9 points per game ranks just 16th among quarterbacks. Still, he’s a safe bet for his sixth QB1 finish.

11) Blaine Gabbert (ARI): @ Houston
In eight starts last season, Gabbert ran 32 times for 185 yards and a touchdown. That’s an extra 4.1 fantasy points per game. It doesn’t sound like much, but add that running production to a mediocre passing day and you’re in the QB1 discussion.

So, can Gabbert be mediocre this weekend? I’m optimistic! Houston is allowing 20.1 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, 3rd most in the league. They’ve been even worse since their bye, allowing 27 fantasy points per game in those three contests.

Gabbert was a QB1 in a third of his starts last season. It won’t be pretty, but he can get there again on Sunday. He and Eli are your GPP plays of the week.

12) Case Keenum (MIN): vs. Los Angeles Rams
I don’t love Keenum this week, but he’s coming off consecutive QB1 finishes and the Vikings are a home favorite with a solid 24.25 implied team total. The matchup also isn’t as bad as it first appears. The Rams have allowed only two QB1 finishes all season, but they haven’t exactly played a murderer’s row. Even if you don’t trust Keenum-and the Vikings clearly don’t, as those Teddy Bridgewater rumblings show-you can at least trust Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen to make some plays.

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Scott Cedar is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Scott, check out his archive and follow him @scedar015.