Food. Football. Friday off.
Forget Christmas, Thanksgiving is the most wonderful time of the year. Except in fantasy football, where it’s just pure stress. Only two weeks left to lock up a playoff spot. I wish I had better news for you in this uber-important week, but this is a particularly tricky week for quarterbacks. We have a few early-season stars struggling. We have lots of bad quarterbacks with great matchups. And we have three Thursday games forcing us to make start/sit decisions earlier than usual. C’est la vie.
One housekeeping note before we get to the QB1 predictions. I’m submitting this on Wednesday, a day earlier than usual, given the Thursday slate of games.
As a reminder, this isn’t a pure start/sit column-weird stuff happens every week, so there are a few far-fetched but plausible QB1 predictions sprinkled in.
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1. Tom Brady (NE): vs. Miami
Brady predictably exploded last week, scoring 25.6 points and finishing 4th overall in a strong week for quarterbacks. He’s got another great matchup this week at home against a dying Dolphins team that just allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to put up 19.9 fantasy points. This game has a college spread, with the Patriots favored by 17.5, so expect a ton of scoring from New England.
2. Russell Wilson (SEA): @ San Francisco
Wilson’s 30.9 point explosion on Monday Night Football was his 2nd week as the top overall quarterback and his fifth game of 25+ fantasy points. He’s in another blowup spot this week against San Francisco. The 49ers allow 19.4 points to opposing quarterbacks, 4th most in the NFL. True, the 49ers did hold Wilson to just 15.3 fantasy points back in Week 2, but Seattle’s offense has turned it around since then.
The 49ers have also trailed off since that matchup, as injuries have taken a toll on an already-thin defense. Over their last six games they’re allowing an average of 27.7 points per game, which would rank 2nd worst across the season, and they’ve allowed at least 20 points in each of those contests. Seattle should score a lot on Sunday, and with yet another Seahawk running back going down on Monday night, the offense remains squarely on Wilson’s shoulders.
3. Kirk Cousins (WAS): vs. New York Giants
If the NFL were Thanksgiving dinner, the Giants would be the gravy. Slather them on anything and it becomes good. They’re allowing the 3rd most points to opposing quarterbacks, and no team has allowed more QB1 weeks (seven) than the G-Men.
That makes Kirk Cousins an easy start on Thanksgiving night. After a mini-swoon in Weeks 8-9, Cousins has rebounded to score 27.6 and 26 points in tough matchups over the last two weeks. At home as 8.5 point favorites against the Giants, he’s in a great spot for a big week.
4. Cam Newton (CAR): @ New York Jets
The Jets aren’t too far behind their fellow New Yorkers, allowing six QB1 performances in 10 games. Expect Cam to make it seven for 11. After a slow start to the season as he returned from shoulder surgery, Newton has scored at least 20 points in five of his last seven games. More importantly, he’s rushed for at least 44 yards in all but one game during that span, including 95 and 86 yards in his last two. This seems like a good time to mention the Jets come into this game allowing the 3rd most yards to opposing quarterbacks, so…yeah, they’re in trouble. Coming in fresh of his bye, Newton’s odds of another blowup game seem pretty, pretty good.
5. Carson Wentz (PHI): vs. Chicago
The fact I could only get Wentz to 5th shows how good a week this is for quarterbacks. Chicago doesn’t get billing as a top defense, but they’re allowing just 13.6 points to opposing quarterbacks, tied for 6th fewest in the NFL. Only Aaron Rodgers has gotten above 20 fantasy points against the Bears.
And yet, even against a tough opponent you can only move Wentz so far down. He’s been pretty much matchup-proof, finishing as a QB1 in eight of his 10 games. It’s not just that he’s consistently putting up starter-caliber numbers, either. He’s been a top-six quarterback in seven games this season, meaning he is consistently giving you an advantage at the position.
6. Andy Dalton (CIN): vs. Cleveland
In his first game against the Browns Dalton had his best performance of the season, completing 25 of 30 passes and throwing for four touchdowns. He may not be quite that good this time around, but he seems like a safe bet to at least get to 20 points. The Browns have played better of late, but are still a bottom 10 pass defense per Football Outsiders. That, plus one of the top run defenses in the league, means teams need to pass against the Browns. Even moreso for the Bengals, who can’t get any kind of running game going behind that offensive line.
7. Matt Ryan (ATL): vs. Tampa Bay
It’s hard to get excited about Ryan. He’s yet to top 18.4 fantasy points in a game this season and is on pace for his lowest yardage total and 2nd lowest touchdown total since 2011.
So let’s spin this another way: it’s easy to get excited about any quarterback facing the Buccaneers! They’re allowing 18 points per game to opposing quarterbacks, 10th most in the league. That despite facing a pretty cupcake schedule: Case Keenum, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, and Tyrod Taylor have all put up QB1 weeks against Tampa Bay, and Matt Moore almost did it last week in relief duty. The Falcons are big favorites with a massive 29 point implied total, suggesting a big week coming for Ryan.
8. Alex Smith (KC): vs. Buffalo
Has the clock struck midnight on Alex Smith? The Chiefs have lost four of their last five, and during that span, Smith has thrown for just seven touchdowns and topped 263 yards only once (against Oakland’s hapless pass defense).
If you’re heading into the playoffs with Smith as your starter, it’s not crazy to start looking at waiver wire options with favorable Week 14-16 schedules. For this week, though, Smith’s a good bet to return to QB1 status. The Bills have given up an average of 45 points in their last three games, and while some of that came on defensive scores or offensive ineptitude, the Bills’ defense has clearly fallen off in recent weeks. This is a get well spot for the struggling Chiefs.
9. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): vs. Green Bay
This week a story came out in which Roethlisberger insists that he still cares, so I guess that’s nice?
Even nicer was his 29-point performance against the Titans, just his 3rd QB1 finish and by far his best performance on the year. I like him to make it back-to-back weeks against Green Bay.
Roethlisberger’s biggest problems this year have been volume and accuracy. He solved both last week, throwing 45 times and completing 66% of his passes, both season highs. Against the Packers-a bottom 10 defense against the pass but very strong against the run-it could be another heavy usage, high-efficiency day for Roethlisberger.
10. Philip Rivers (LAC): @ Dallas
Rivers certainly hasn’t been winning you weeks. He’s averaging an unimpressive 15.3 points per game (16th among quarterbacks) and has more than two touchdowns or 300 yards in a game just twice. He’s maxed out at 20.8 fantasy points. Still, he offers a consistent floor, finishing as a QB1 in over half of his games.
This could be the week we see his ceiling. Dallas has allowed 54 points in the six quarters without Sean Lee. There just isn’t much resistance on the Dallas defense without their star linebacker. With Lee set to miss Thursday’s game, it should be wheels up for Rivers.
11. Marcus Mariota (TEN): @ Indianapolis
I think at this point you can start anyone against the Colts. Even Mariota, who has just two QB1 finishes all season.
In addition to the cushy matchup, there’s reason for optimism. Mariota threw for over 300 yards last week against Pittsburgh, one of the best pass defenses in the league. He’s also due for some major touchdown regression. After being one of the most efficient touchdown makers in each of his first two seasons, Mariota is scoring on just 2.8% of his pass attempts this season. That’s a bad number for any quarterback (except Tom Savage, who would kill for that production), but it’s especially bad given Mariota’s history. His poor luck could turn around any time, and when it does he’ll be back in the weekly QB1 discussion.
12. Joe Flacco (BAL): vs. Houston
I feel oddly confident about a quarterback who has yet to finish as a QB1 in any week this season. We tested the “anyone against Houston” theory last week with Blaine Gabbert, and were rewarded with a solid 19.6 fantasy points. So let’s go back to the well with a home matchup for Flacco. After a truly, truly horrific start, the Baltimore offense is playing a bit better, scoring 20 or more points in three straight. 250 yards and two touchdowns against this defense doesn’t feel so out of reach, does it?
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Scott Cedar is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Scott, check out his archive and follow him @scedar015.
