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Fantasy Football Rookie Report: Week 12

Fantasy Football Rookie Report: Week 12

Hi everyone and thank you for taking the time to read this week’s Rookie Report. I hope you all had happy and football-filled Thanksgivings and, of course, that you all won your Week 12 matches.

Remember last week when we were super jazzed that three rookie tight ends finished in the top six at the position in fantasy? Well, this week the rookie running backs decided to show those tight ends how it’s done.

In Week 12, the three top running back finishers in 0.5-PPR scoring were rookies. That’s right: the RB1, RB2, and RB3 were all rookies.

What’s even crazier is that only two of them had been featured on here before. In fact, there have been 14 different rookie running backs with top 12 weekly performances this year. This will likely go down as one of the best rookie running back classes of all time.

But before we get ahead of ourselves and evaluate this year’s running back class against classes past, let’s slow down and take a look at this week’s top finishers. We have all of the offseason for that kind of debate, but we need something a little more actionable heading into the fantasy playoffs.

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Alvin Kamara (NO)

I know I just said we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves, but we just have to for Alvin Kamara. Per a recent NFL Research tweet, Kamara is having the most efficient running back season we’ve seen in 25 years. The kid is untouchable right now, something we witnessed yet again in Sunday’s match against the Rams.

With his 33.8 fantasy points on Sunday Kamara lept into 3rd place on the season-long leaderboards despite cracking double-digit carries just three times all year. His 7.09 yards per carry clip has helped him produce for fantasy despite sharing work with Mark Ingram, but the receiving game is where Kamara really lights it up.

Kamara’s 54 receptions are the third-most at the position, just behind Christian McCaffrey and Le’Veon Bell. He’s not just compiling the stats though. Kamara is leading the league in yards after the catch. He’s producing more yards after the catch than wide receivers like Golden Tate and Jarvis Landry, who are known for their YAC prowess. His skills with the ball in his hands are tough to match.

His receiving work is what sets him apart for sure, but his effectiveness on the ground is nothing to scoff at. Per SharpFootballStats.com, Kamara is the 5th-most successful running back in the league. 54 percent of Kamara’s rushes can be deemed as successful, which is amazing.

If you were lucky enough to pick Kamara up on your waiver wire around the time of the Adrian Peterson trade, then congratulations to you. If you weren’t, then just be thankful that we get to watch such an exciting talent each weekend (and pray that you don’t have to play against him).

Jamaal Williams (GB)

It’s been a long and windy road for Jamaal Williams, but he’s finally made it. He finished as the RB2 in Week 12 with 27.50 fantasy points.

Let’s briefly recap Williams’ season. He started the season as the backup to Ty Montgomery. When Montgomery injured his ribs in Week 4, Williams took over for about a minute before injuring himself. Aaron Jones stole the spotlight at that point and became the lead back for several weeks. Jones and Montgomery split carries during that time while Williams took a back seat.

Then Week 10 happened, leaving both Jones and Montgomery sidelined. As the only healthy option left on the team, Williams has truly stepped up. He’s handled 59 carries over the last three games and has even drawn 12 targets in that span.

He’s improved each week, too. His weekly scores of 7.9, 11.5 and 27.5 show a back getting up to speed in the NFL and breaking out. The fact that his RB2 performance came against a solid Steelers defense is especially encouraging.

His yards per carry of 3.84 may not look too enticing, but Williams has actually been highly successful running the ball. Remember the running back Success Rate metric we discussed with Alvin Kamara? Well, Williams’ Success Rate of 54 percent ranks just behind Kamara as the sixth-highest rate in the league among backs with 50 or more carries.

For as long as Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones remain sidelined, Williams’ workload is one of the biggest in the league. He’s even getting work in the passing game, highlighted by the screen pass he took to the house this past Sunday.

In a game where volume is king, Williams stands out. He’s the only show in Green Bay, so we can confidently fire the rookie up in Week 13 against the porous Buccaneers’ defense. We don’t know how long this ride will last, so enjoy it while you can.

Joe Mixon (CIN)

While we can’t say for certain how the Green Bay backfield will shake up when all of their players are healthy, we know for a fact that Joe Mixon is the bell cow in Cincinnati. In the last four weeks Mixon has handled 81.05 percent of the team’s running back opportunities.

On Sunday we witnessed what happens when opportunity meets a positive matchup and game-script. Mixon crushed the Cleveland Browns, accumulating 114 yards on the ground and another 51 yards through the air. Adding in his touchdown, his 24 fantasy points were enough for a finish as the RB3 in Week 12.

Despite Mixon’s opportunity share, it’s no secret that he’s struggled this season. For a player that some considered to be the most talented rookie running back heading into the season, his fantasy production did not mirror those expectations. From a raw fantasy production standpoint, he was actually pretty disappointing.

But looming behind his disappointing fantasy numbers were some more encouraging metrics. While he hadn’t been translating his opportunities into terrific fantasy value, he was generating a ton of yardage on his own.

Mixon’s 288 Yards Created, or the number of yards a running back generates after evading the first tackle, rank eighth in the league. The Yards Created metric helps isolate a running back’s performance from his offensive line’s performance and in this case shows that while Mixon’s offensive line has struggled (it’s the 32nd-ranked run-blocking unit per PlayerProfiler.com), Mixon has been effective as a runner.

Mixon is also an example of how important volume is for fantasy production. While his running back opportunity share has been great, the actual raw total of opportunities for the Bengals has been pretty weak. The Bengals have called the seventh-fewest run plays in the league. He’s receiving a high percentage of a low volume of opportunities.

Don’t get discouraged though. Sunday may have been just the second time all season Mixon saw over 20 carries, but it was also the second time in as many weeks. Mixon’s usage is trending upwards, something his three touchdowns in the past four games may be contributing toward. In Week 13 he faces the same Steelers defense that just allowed Jamaal Williams‘ RB2 performance, so we might be in for another nice week of fantasy production from Mixon.

Conclusion

That’s it for this week’s Rookie Report. This year’s rookie running back class is as stacked as it is deep, and we’re fortunate as fantasy footballers to reap the benefits from it.

I’ll be back next week going over Week 13’s rookie performances. As always, good luck in your matchups this weekend.



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Aidan Mcgrath is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Aidan, check out his archive and follow him @ffaidanmcgrath.

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