Ok, gang, it’s a big week for many of us, as we desperately try to secure a playoff spot. You’re reading this on Thanksgiving, and there’s probably a game about to start, so let’s skip all the fancy introductions and get right into our start/sit designations.
If you’ve been reading this article all year, you know how it goes. I’ll discuss one start or sit from each position, which represents a player I have ranked significantly higher or lower than the expert consensus rankings. We’re only talking the questionable calls here – if you’re sitting with Tom Brady, you go right ahead and start him.
I’ll also add a few other names that I am higher or lower on than the expert consensus. That will give you plenty of opportunities to yell at me for those decisions. Note: if you want to see my rankings for the week, they are pinned on my Twitter page at @danharris80. They will show you exactly how many spots higher or lower I am than the ECR on every player.
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Quarterback
Start
Dak Prescott (DAL v. LAC): ECR of 12
Prescott has been terrible since Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension went into effect, with one touchdown and six turnovers in two games. He’s been sacked 12 times – TWELVE – over those two games, and he now gets to take on a stingy Chargers defense with a ferocious pass rush. But, as you have likely heard by now, Tyron Smith should play this week, and the impact of his return cannot be overstated.
The Cowboys have been unable to block Prescott’s blind side, and they essentially abandoned running to that side of the field. Smith’s return should be a game-changer, and on national television in a game the Cowboys must have, I expect Prescott and the Cowboys offense to show up in this one.
Others I’m higher on: Alex Smith (KC v. BUF), Jacoby Brissett (IND v. TEN)
Sit
Matthew Stafford (DET v. MIN): ECR of 15
To be clear, I have Stafford just one spot lower than the expert consensus rankings, so this is about as light a “sit” designation as there could be. But the Vikings pass defense is legitimate, and other than Kirk Cousins in that unlikely shootout a couple of weeks back, no quarterback has scored more than 20 fantasy points against Minnesota.
In Stafford’s first meeting with the Vikings, he threw for just 209 yards with no touchdowns. I think Stafford should be ok here, just a tad worse than what the industry expects. But my editors have told me that I have to pick someone as a sit, and to not do so would be “copping out” and “defeat the whole point of the article,” so here you go.
Others I’m lower on: Drew Brees (NO at LAR), Jared Goff (LAR v. NO), Tyrod Taylor (BUF at KC)
Running Back
Start
Alex Collins (BAL v. HOU): ECR of 23
Much like Kenyan Drake, I’ve been enamored with Collins’ talent and couldn’t figure out why his team wouldn’t just turn over the reins to him. But Sunday against Green Bay was encouraging, not only because Collins got 20 carries, a season-high, but because he caught four passes, also a season-high. Considering Danny Woodhead returned last week, Collins’ involvement in the passing game is a particularly good sign. The Texans remain a tough matchup for running backs, but the game script should favor Collins on Monday night, and his volume should make him a solid RB2, rather than a borderline one.
Note: On the Start/Sit episode of the FantasyPros podcast, both Bobby Sylvester and Mike Tagliere suggested that Collins was a “sit.” Part of the reasons we love FantasyPros is because you get rankings from over 100 of the best fantasy experts in the industry. Bobby and Tags may be right – personally, however, I have Collins higher than his ECR.
Others I’m higher on: Joe Mixon (CIN v. CLE), Frank Gore (IND v. TEN), C.J. Anderson (DEN at OAK)
Sit
Jay Ajayi (PHI v. CHI): ECR of 19
Eagles halfback snaps against the Cowboys last week: LeGarrette Blount: 30, Corey Clement: 19, Jay Ajayi: 13, Kenjon Barner: 2. Eagles halfback touches against the Cowboys last week: LeGarrette Blount: 13, Jay Ajayi: 8, Corey Clement: 6, Kenjon Barner: 2. I’ve got no issue with Ajayi as a borderline RB2, given his enormous potential.
But the Bears aren’t total pushovers against the run and, more importantly, what is Ajayi’s ceiling? Given that the Eagles should likely win going away, the odds of a similar snap count and touch breakdown among the running backs are high. Perhaps Ajayi gets to 12 touches, but he’s likely going to need to bust a big one to earn that ECR. I’d rather bet against it.
Others I’m lower on: Ameer Abdullah (DET v. MIN), Marshawn Lynch (OAK v. DEN), both Miami running backs at New England
Wide Receiver
Start
Sammy Watkins (LAR v. NO): ECR of 34
The last time Watkins was in this article was when he played the 49ers, and although that worked out well, I am a little less confident here. The apparent reason for the start designation is Robert Woods‘ injury, as that should mean Watkins’ targets should increase from his usual two or three. But the other reason for Watkins’ designation is that the Saints’ standout rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore has missed practice all this week with an ankle injury he sustained in Sunday’s win over the Redskins.
If Lattimore misses the game, then there are few logical reasons for Jared Goff to ignore Watkins. Sean McVay has to realize that Watkins must be involved for the Rams to have a shot in this game, and I expect he will be. He’s still a WR3 for me, but a much stronger one than ECR suggests.
Others I’m higher on: Cooper Kupp (LAR v. NO), Kenny Stills (MIA at NE)
Sit
Marvin Jones (DET v. MIN): ECR of 28
There’s nothing more sweat-inducing than labeling Jones a sit, as he’s always a threat to have a huge day with his playmaking ability. But with Xavier Rhodes’ presence, I just can’t be as optimistic on Jones as the rest of the fantasy community appears to be. Remember those numbers on Stafford above?
Considering the Vikings’ success, it’s fair to assume that they’ll stick with a similar gameplan, which involved Rhodes shadowing Jones, and limiting him to just two catches. In his career, Jones has just three catches against Rhodes despite more than 60 routes run against him. He’s a barely borderline WR3 for me.
Others I’m lower on: Davante Adams (GB at PIT), DeSean Jackson (TB at ATL)
Tight End
As usual, there’s just not enough of a disagreement in the tight end position to warrant official start or sit designations. But I’m a bit higher than ECR on Jason Witten (DAL v. LAC). It’s not by much though – the Chargers are excellent against tight ends but I do think the Cowboys get back on track a bit here and Witten gets more involved.
I’m lower on Austin Hooper (ATL v. TB). There’s just no trusting him at this point. But, for the most part, there’s not much to choose from there.
Happy Thanksgiving all!
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.
