As we were finishing watching a DVR’ed episode of Jeopardy! tonight, and I was basking in my ability to correctly identify The Karate Kid as the movie containing the lines “sweep the leg” and “get him a body bag,” I told my wife that I had to cut our night a bit short because I needed to write an article on trade values. She’s a casual fantasy football player, and by that I mean she plays in a league and enjoys the game, but cannot possibly understand why I ran around the house pumping my fist like a madman after that Kenyan Drake touchdown run against the Panthers on Monday night.
“I don’t understand. We’re almost at the playoffs. If your team isn’t locked and loaded by now, you’re in trouble. Who’s still looking to trade?” I love my wife, but her lack of empathy in fantasy football, driven almost entirely by the fact that she’s won her league three years in a row, can be maddening.
As for some others in the Harris household who may not be as fortunate, and as for many of us, we’re still trying to make deals to help us reach the playoffs or just solidify our team. For some of us, we’re dealing with unfortunate injuries to our running back depth. For others, our success has been built largely on our fantasy defense (i.e., holding our opponents to a low score each week, a critical but under-discussed skill in fantasy football), and our team has major holes.
Although we’re approaching the trade deadline in many leagues, there’s still time to bulk up your roster. So let’s take a look at the trade values for Week 11 and see if we can strike a deal.
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Quarterbacks
Player | Current Value | Previous Value | +/- |
Tom Brady | 26 | 26 | – |
Russell Wilson | 23 | 23 | – |
Carson Wentz | 23 | 22 | +1 |
Dak Prescott | 23 | 27 | -4 |
Alex Smith | 17 | 15 | +2 |
Cam Newton | 17 | 11 | +6 |
Kirk Cousins | 16 | 11 | +5 |
Drew Brees | 16 | 22 | -6 |
Matthew Stafford | 14 | 14 | – |
Jared Goff | 14 | 11 | +3 |
Marcus Mariota | 11 | 11 | – |
Matt Ryan | 11 | 11 | – |
Derek Carr | 8 | N/A | +8 |
There’s finally a bit of movement in our quarterback values and, for once, it’s not a result of injuries. A couple of relatively elite quarterbacks – Dak Prescott and Drew Brees – lose a bit of value based purely on performance. Prescott’s first game without Ezekiel Elliott did not go well, though that was surely as much due to the absence of Tyron Smith. Still, given the lack of threat in the receiving game, it’s fair to assume that Elliott’s absence will have a negative impact on Prescott going forward, enough to make his value dip slightly. As for Brees, he’s playing excellent football, but the combination of a stout defense and an elite running game simply don’t require him to air it out these days. As good as Brees has been in his career, there’s just no getting around that fact at this point in the season.
As for some risers, both Cam Newton and Kirk Cousins take a step forward in value. Newton may throw in some sub-par efforts now and then, but his rushing ability gives him such a high floor that there’s simply almost no chance he will give you a total dud, which is something that can’t be said for most quarterbacks. As for Cousins, he’s played very well in back-to-back extremely tough matchups (in Seattle and against the Vikings), and with his offensive line getting healthier, he looks to be a safe option from here on out, and a slight cut above some of the usual suspects.
Running Backs
I wonder what the preseason odds were on the Saints having two top-10 running backs in fantasy football heading into Week 11? 50-to-1? And that the two running backs would be Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara? Let’s make it 100-to-1. Brees has proven himself to be an all-time great, and the accolades are meaningless right now. The man just wants to win, and if that means four or five rushing touchdowns a game for his backs, then so be it. Buy them both as elite players, but you didn’t need me to tell you that.
I feel like DeMarco Murray is that horror-flick villain that Derrick Henry owners keep thinking they’ve defeated only to see him pop up unexpectedly. There’s just no changing of the guard to Henry absent a serious Murray injury. And while Murray may look like he’s running with weights on his feet, the guy simply will not let nicks and muscle pulls hold him down. His remaining schedule, for the most part, is excellent, and he should be able to produce as a borderline RB1 going forward. I’d value him accordingly.
Concussions are scary things, and there’s really no way to know how long it will take a particular player to return to the field after suffering one. But I’m nervous about Devonta Freeman for two reasons. The first is that there are rumblings from players on the Panthers, who the Falcons played against in Week 9, that they thought Freeman suffered a concussion in THAT game. And second, Dan Quinn has essentially already ruled Freeman out for a Monday night game against Seattle. Freeman may miss just the one game, and his drop in value may be an overreaction – but for me, I’m avoiding trading for Freeman at a value that simply assumes he’ll be back in Week 12. I wouldn’t all out avoid him, but he takes a significant drop in value in my opinion. Tevin Coleman similarly rises heartily.
The running back you want to own in New England is Dion Lewis, of course. To the extent you’re looking deeper, the guy you want is Rex Burkhead, not James White. White’s snap percentage has decreased for several weeks in a row, while Burkhead led the Patriots in snaps against the Broncos. Neither will be particularly safe, but to the extent you’re looking for guaranteed touches, Burkhead is your man.
Wide Receivers
There’s some mild rearranging in trade values, but there’s little of significance to discuss. Stefon Diggs is healthy and Adam Thielen has discovered the end zone, and both start bounding up in value. Robert Woods and Sterling Shepard are legitimate threats and the change in quarterback hasn’t hurt Larry Fitzgerald or Davante Adams quite as much as we feared.
But there are a few notable names taking drops in value. Dez Bryant survived his early run against top cornerbacks largely by finding the end zone. But without touchdowns, he’s far from an elite wide receiver. He hasn’t yet topped 100 yards receiving and has topped 73 yards just once. With Ezekiel Elliott set to miss substantial time, Bryant is the primary (only?) weapon outside of Dak Prescott, and opposing defenses know it. Bryant is always a threat in the red zone, but he needs to be moved down out of the truly elite crowd.
And Keenan Allen‘s high volume of targets simply doesn’t go as far as it used to. He hasn’t topped 67 yards receiving or five receptions in any of his last five games and has just one touchdown, which came way back in Week 1. In PPR leagues, sure, he has a fairly high floor. But in standard leagues, he’s more of a low-end WR2.
And poor Jordy Nelson. Frankly, his value may even be too high at this point, as people are questioning (appropriately, I might add) whether they should drop him. Nelson has never gotten a ton of separation anyway, and without Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball, he’s simply not much of a starting option these days.
Tight Ends
Player | Current Value | Previous Value | +/- |
Rob Gronkowski | 48 | 48 | – |
Zach Ertz | 34 | 34 | – |
Travis Kelce | 29 | 29 | – |
Evan Engram | 15 | 15 | – |
Jimmy Graham | 12 | 12 | – |
Cameron Brate | 9 | 10 | -1 |
Delanie Walker | 9 | 9 | – |
Jared Cook | 9 | 4 | +5 |
Greg Olsen | 9 | N/A | +9 |
Kyle Rudolph | 6 | 6 | – |
Jack Doyle | 6 | 6 | – |
Charles Clay | 5 | 3 | +2 |
Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 4 | 4 | – |
Jason Witten | 3 | 5 | -2 |
Hunter Henry | 3 | 6 | -3 |
Jordan Reed | 3 | 3 | – |
Vernon Davis | 3 | 3 | – |
Austin Hooper | 3 | 3 | – |
Tyler Kroft | 3 | 3 | – |
As usual, there is little to talk about with tight ends, but we do have Greg Olsen about to make his return. All reports on Olsen’s fractured foot have been good so far, and he is still on track to return in Week 12 against the Jets. There’s still some risk at this point, as there is with any player returning from injury. But assuming Olsen suits up and shows no ill effects from his injury, he immediately enters borderline top-5 status. At this point, given all the positive news, I’d feel comfortable making a move for Olsen if you have a need at tight end.
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.