IDP Risers and Fallers: Week 11 (Fantasy Football)

Tommy Kislingbury provides his IDP risers and fallers for Week 11.

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Hello fellow IDP degenerates. What a great time to be alive! If you’ve been paying attention and outworking your league mates then while they’re sweating on squeaking into the playoffs our teams are sitting pretty with spots all sewn up. Now that bye weeks are done while they’re scrabbling for a safety that actually gets on the field you should have enough IDP depth that your biggest issue is making start/sit decisions every week.

Of course that doesn’t mean you should stop looking for an extra edge. IDP masters should be like sharks – we never stop swimming or looking for that next meal. Here’s a few titbits to help you out this week.

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Rising IDPs

Budda Baker (S – ARI)
Even the least knowledgeable NFL fan knows that Budda has absolutely torn it up the last couple of weeks. Since he stepped in as Tyvon Branch’s replacement two weeks ago Budda leads the NFL in tackles. Not just safeties – all NFL players. That’s not even touching on the sack, recovered fumble, or passes defended. I advised caution last week, but it’s clear that Budda really can play the all-action role that Tyrann Mathieu did so well before injuries sapped his ability to do it.

With some good matchups coming against teams that let their opponents pile up significant IDP playing time Budda should continue to be good – if not as incandescent as he has been.

Jon Cyprien (S – TEN)
Cyprien has now played three games since his return from injury. In the first, he wasn’t great as he found his feet again. The second was an extremely low-volume week with just 43 snaps for him and in the third he managed 10 total tackles. Kevin Byard has got all the headlines this year but Cyprien is a far more natural box player. I like his chances to go on a fine run for the rest of the season.

James Burgess (LB – CLE)
Burgess had a staggering Week 11 game with 16 total tackles. I don’t think that’s indicative in any way but this time of the year any LB who finds his way suddenly into a full-time job is a great prize.

Burgess played over 70 snaps last week against the Jaguars which was Jamie Collins-type volume. He also moved around the formation far more than Christian Kirksey and Joe Schobert – again like Jamie Collins had been doing. Unfortunately, Jamie Collins was not very effective in that role this year and my worry is therefore that Burgess will not be either. In fact including all Week 10 numbers Jamie Collins had fewer than half the total tackles of either Kirksey or Schobert. Add to that that this week was the Browns second-highest game in terms of team snaps in 2017 (only behind the Vikings game in London) and it all adds up to Burgess being interesting but not a likely star.

Olivier Vernon & Jason Pierre-Paul (DE – NYG)
Vernon returned to full fitness this week with 62 defensive snaps. JPP managed even more with 71. As of Monday afternoon, JPP leads the NFL in average snaps per game for all DEs with 65. Vernon is tied for 11^th with 55. JPP also leads all DEs in total snaps with 650. Trey Flowers is 2^nd with 606. As a comparison, Ziggy Ansah has averaged 33 snaps per game, Cam Wake 38, Anthony Zettel 43, DeMarcus Lawrence 44, and Julius Peppers 27. This is no fluke. In 2016 the Giants also gave them both a monster workload.

We know the clearest indicator of IDP production is simply time spent on the field so that extra volume each and every week is tantalizing. Neither JPP nor Vernon have been efficient (they both have a worse sacks/snap ration than Takk McKinley, Danielle Hunter, and Chris Jones) but the time they’re on the field virtually guarantees production.

Preston Brown (LB – BUF)
Brown had an amazing 2016 season but for much of 2017 he’s been overshadowed by Ramon Humber. That changed this week with 11 solos and 13 total tackles.

Brown has now played 682 defensive snaps which trails only Nick Vigil and Demario Davis among all LBs. He’s got the Chiefs and Patriots up next who both allow their opponents a huge number of defensive snaps so Brown could be very effective in the battle for the playoffs in fantasy leagues.

Xavier Woods (S – DAL)
Woods received the first start of his career on Sunday and played 64 defensive snaps. Jeff Heath missed the game entirely but even had he been fit Woods would have started.

Woods recorded two solos, two assists, and an interception. More tackles would be nice but at least it extends the window to open. With Byron Jones a better fit playing deep Woods could enjoy a very favorable role going forwards.

Falling IDPs

Clay Matthews (LB – GB)
Matthews had been enjoying a fine season as an NFL player a year after everyone wrote him off but an injury restricted him to just 13 snaps this past week as they were trounced by the Ravens.

It may not have been showing up much on the stat sheet but I was enjoying watching him play at least. Sadly I fear that may have been the last we see of him. We don’t know the extent of his groin injury yet but it’s certainly not good news for a 31-year-old edge rusher. There is no dead cap penalty for releasing him this offseason but if he stays he would be due $11.4m. With Nick Perry installed as the team’s top edge player and on a hefty contract himself it seems Matthews may just walk away.

Rey Maualuga (LB – FA)
Maualuga was arrested last week at an altercation at a nightclub and the Dolphins subsequently released him. As a journeyman in his thirties who has disappointed for several years, I find it very hard to believe he’ll resurface anywhere. He should not be owned in any format.

Glover Quin (S – DET)
Quin has been a fairly spectacular player this season. He has three pick-sixes and has been putting up a fairly steady stream of tackles. However, I think he’s been at the peak of his efficiency thresholds and should not be trusted. The tackles for all their consistency are not coming often enough to matter. He has 32 for the season which is the same as BJ Goodson, Adrian Phillips, and Brian Poole, who are all part-time players. The interceptions have made his year seem far better than it actually has been and he should not be in your lineups going forward.

David Harris & Elandon Roberts (LB – NE)
With Kyle Van Noy now playing predominantly on the edge in the Dont’a Hightower role, I was excited about Roberts seizing the inside job. However in the two games since Hightower got hurt Harris (58) and Roberts (77) have shared the job with neither being a viable IDP starter. Although that 77 for Roberts looks good please don’t be deceived. Across the same period, Devin McCourty has played 137 snaps. It’s very, very difficult for anyone to be an effective player while only on the field for half the time and Roberts’ limitations in coverage just prevent him from playing more.

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That’s it for this week. Never stop looking for that IDP edge everyone.

Thanks for reading and good luck!