Ah… the last week during which we have to deal with players on byes. Cool beans. There would have been an inconvenient six teams off had a hurricane (the natural disaster, not a University of Miami player) not ruined things during the season-opening week.
Instead, a more manageable four squads – Carolina, Indianapolis, San Francisco and the New York Jets – are taking a blow. All right then, let’s get down to business:
SLEEPERS are defined as players normally considered Tier 3 or below who I predict will over-achieve this week. SNOOZERS are Tier 1 or 2 players who I expect to disappoint their owners.
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SLEEPERS
Jay Cutler (QB – MIA vs. TB)
At times, he can look absolutely horrible. And on the next play, he completes a thread-the-needle pass that only an elite talent could pull off. What I like this week, simply, is his team is hosting the league’s 30th-ranked pass defense, and Cutler has thrown at least two TD passes in four straight games.
Tevin Coleman (RB – ATL @ SEA)
What… I’m picking a running back to exceed expectations at Seattle? Yep. With Devonta Freeman in concussion protocol and likely to be sidelined, Coleman will be the featured guy. He has been productive when just a supporting actor, to the tune of at least eight fantasy points in all but two games in 2017. I’m not saying he will be an RB1, but 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown are realistic.
Orleans Darkwa (RB – NYG vs. KC)
Going back to the well, yes. But it makes sense – Darkwa continued his emergence last week as the primary runner, netting 88 scrimmage yards and a two-point conversion as well, and the Chiefs run defense is the league’s fourth-worst. A note of caution, however, that the above is predicated on the notion that the G-Men can keep this game at least somewhat competitive.
Cole Beasley (WR – DAL vs. PHI)
Another trend (not trendy) pick – Beasley has a pair of touchdown catches in each of the last two Cowboys home games. I’m thinking just one along with 40 yards or so this time. Hey, it’s 10 points. And, it doesn’t hurt this prediction that Philly is ranked 26th in the league in pass defense, due mainly to playing from in front for much of the season.
Marqise Lee (WR – JAC @ CLE)
Lee is approaching the level at which he wouldn’t be qualified as a sleeper – he has double-figure targets in three of the last four games and has scored in the last two. The Browns’ defense is statistically better than its reputation, but Lee has emerged as a No. 1 wideout.
Jermaine Gresham (TE – ARI @ HOU)
The veteran has touchdowns in consecutive games and seems to have a connection with QB Drew Stanton that isn’t present with Carson Palmer under center. Stanton might sit due to a sore knee, but we’ll ride yet another trend as a streaming option.
SNOOZERS
Marcus Mariota (QB – TEN @ PIT)
The talented former Heisman Trophy winner entered this season with lofty expectations but has been erratic. Then you factor in that the host Steelers have the second-ranked pass defense (and they’re No. 2 in total defense as well), and that translates into the Oregon grad probably posting a duck.
Todd Gurley (RB – LAR @ MIN)
You know the drill – you obviously cannot (should not) bench Gurley just because it’s a tough matchup. But you temper your hopes. As good as Rams QB Jared Goff has been the last several weeks, the Vikings and their 3rd-ranked rush defense will key on Gurley first/foremost and force the sophomore signal-caller to come up big.
Dion Lewis (RB – NE vs. OAK at Mexico)
A perplexing and disturbing trend exists for Lewis, who tallied 17.5 points last week. He hasn’t had back-to-back double-figure games since – get this! – the first month of 2015. Yes, there are some extensive stints he missed due to injury during that time, but it demonstrates how Patriots coach Bill Belichick likes to keep the opposition guessing. Remember Mike Gillislee and his Week 1 TD hat trick?
AJ Green (WR – CIN @ DEN)
Like Gurley, Green is too valuable to remove from your starting lineup. But it’s a bad matchup against a ticked off Broncos secondary, which despite recent results (they’ve now yielded 19 passing TDs) is still in the top 10 in pass defense. In Green’s two other tough road contests this season, he has a grand total of five fantasy points and one early-exit-causing tantrum.
Doug Baldwin (WR – SEA vs. ATL)
The Falcons defense has been top-10 level at slowing opposing wide receivers, and Baldwin is battling a sore groin. I know what I wrote last week, but I STILL suggest you seek a better option.
Charles Clay (TE – BUF @ LAC)
Not only is the Chargers defense typically stingy against opposing tight ends – they rank second in fewest TDs allowed to them – but Buffalo’s offense is a bit of a mess, and Clay has scored 3 or fewer points in half of his six games played.
Week 10 Results
Calls So Good That I Need My Own End-Zone Celebration
(Sleepers) Orleans Darkwa, Robby Anderson, Ed Dickson. (Snoozers) Drew Brees – hey, this is about fantasy stats! So what if I was grossly wrong about Buffalo’s D; Devonta Freeman, Chris Thompson, Keenan Allen.
Calls Missed As If I Was Just A Monkey With Darts
(Sleepers) Josh McCown, Devontae Booker (got more work but didn’t do much with it), Mohamed Sanu. (Snoozers) Doug Baldwin, Evan Engram.
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Bob Cunningham is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Bob, check out his archive or follow him @bobcunnin.
