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Week 10 Primer: Analyzing All 14 Games (Fantasy Football)

Week 10 Primer: Analyzing All 14 Games (Fantasy Football)

After hearing all your input last week on the new format, we’re going to stick with it going forward. In the end, this article is put together as a one-stop-shop for you to consume information on every player from every game, and if you tell me the information was easier to consume last week, well that’s what we want. I’ll always be open to suggestions that make The Primer better, provided the masses want it.

On top of that, the limited word count last week seems to have helped my body recover. Because of that, we’re going to take it easy for hopefully just one more week (Hint: I didn’t) to ensure my body has all the rest it needs. I’d just like to thank everyone for their get well wishes, every single one of them is appreciated.

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If this is your first time here, The Primer was made so that you could have something to go along with rankings. Something that gave you reasoning as to why a player should be started or why he should be benched. There’s not much time for you to dive knee-deep into stats during the week when you have a full-time job and a family, I get it. That’s what I’m here for. So, while you’re sitting at your desk, staring at your screen with more focus than ever before, you’ll have me to thank when your boss gives you a raise. Let’s talk Week 10.

As always, if you’d like to see my rankings as a list, you can view them right here

New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total: 42.5
Line: TB by 1.5

QBs
Josh McCown:
What if I told you that the last time Josh McCown finished a game with less than 13.5 fantasy points was way back in Week 4 against the Jaguars? Think about that for a minute – the Jaguars haven’t allowed a top-18 quarterback all year, so can we really hold him accountable for that? This is a revenge game on both sides (I’m joking, though both quarterbacks played for the other team), something extra to toss into the fire. Another fun fact is that the Bucs have yet to allow a quarterback less than 12 fantasy points this year, which isn’t a lot by any means, but it’s the absolute floor. They’ve allowed multiple touchdowns in four of their eight games and may be without their top cornerback again this week. McCown is most definitely in the streaming conversation this week and is a high-end QB2.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: We all thought it was Jameis Winston getting benched at halftime last week, but as it turns out, the Bucs are shutting him down for a few weeks. That gives Fitzpatrick a shot, who was awful in 2016, though 2015 was not such a long time ago when he threw 31 touchdown passes. In his time with the Bucs, he’s completed 30-of-48 passes for 358 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. He’s normally got two fantastic weapons at his disposal in Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, making him someone to consider in fantasy leagues, but Evans was handed a one-game suspension on Monday for his hit on Marshon Lattimore. The Jets have been murderous against opposing run games, but very giving to the pass, allowing 19 passing scores through nine weeks, the most in the NFL. Teams haven’t thrown much against them, as just three quarterbacks have eclipsed 35 pass attempts. Still, knowing they’ve allowed at least two touchdown passes in 7-of-9 games is enticing, making Fitzpatrick someone to definitely play in 2QB formats. Without Evans, you can likely do better in a standard 1QB league.

RBs
Matt Forte and Bilal Powell:
This appears to be Forte’s backfield once again, as here are the touch totals over the last four weeks: Forte 57 (34 rush, 23 rec), Powell 37 (32 rush, 5 rec), and Elijah McGuire 28 (27 rush, 1 rec). It almost seems like they switched from what they were doing last year in the passing game, which would’ve been the smarter thing all along because Forte is one of the game’s best pass catchers. In five of the last seven games against the Bucs, opponents have been able to total at least 25 carries as a team, so there should be enough carries to go around between them. There have oddly been five running backs who have totaled at least 49 receiving yards against the Bucs, which is more than some teams have allowed to wide receivers. Forte should be played as a semi-safe RB3, while Powell is more of the low-end, risky RB3 option.

Doug Martin: What in the world happened to Martin last week? Seven yards on eight carries? He was benched for Peyton Barber and I can’t blame the Bucs for putting him in timeout. With that being said, how far do they take this? Upon his return, he’s played against the Patriots, Cardinals, Bills, Panthers, and Saints, all of whom have stopped the run extremely well. Still, the Jets are no joke themselves, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry and four touchdowns through nine games. They’ve also held each of the last four running backs they’ve played to less than 12 PPR points, a list that includes LeSean McCoy, Jay Ajayi, and Devonta Freeman. Martin is looking to be a low-end RB2 this week, unless we hear they’re benching him again this week.

WRs
Robby Anderson:
It appears the Anderson/McCown connection is a real thing, as he’s now scored in three consecutive games and is averaging 61.9 yards over the last seven games, making him the WR21 in PPR leagues right now. He isn’t seeing large target volume, so there’s little room for error, but he has seen at least five targets in every game since Week 3. The Bucs have allowed a league-high 13 top-24 performances against them this year and they’ve already had their bye week. Anderson deserves to be in the WR3 conversation and if Brent Grimes misses another game, he becomes a must-play.

Jermaine Kearse: While Anderson has been trending up, Kearse has slowly started his demise that we all knew he’d eventually have. He’s seeing a steady 4-6 targets per game, but he’s now failed to top 38 yards in five of his last six games. Never was an elite talent, so it’s hard to see him bouncing back. Knowing how good the matchup is, Kearse is on the WR4/WR5 radar, though not a very enticing play.

DeSean Jackson: He’s not meant to be the alpha-dog on an offense, so this would normally be concerning. However, the Jets are the type you’d want him to play against. Not only were they down their top cornerback (Morris Claiborne) last week, but they’ve struggled even with him on the field. Even if Claiborne returns and they try to stick him one-on-one against Jackson, it won’t end well for the Jets. As of now, I’d consider Jackson a high-end WR3 for this game who’d move into WR2 territory if Claiborne were to miss another game.

Adam Humphries: You can’t say he won’t see a lot of targets, right? In the three games he’s seen at least seven targets, he’s posted 6/68/0, 6/70/0, and 6/51/0. The Jets have struggled with slot receivers this year, so it’s not inconceivable that Humphries could post a WR3-type game here. In fact, he’s probably going to get ranked as a top-40 option this week with the Bucs struggling to move the ball on the ground.

Chris Godwin: A last-ditch option for those who are looking for a wide receiver available on 99 percent of waiver wires. He’s a player who reminded me of Pierre Garcon coming out of the draft this year, and the Bucs took a shot on him in the third-round. He has impressed in the opportunities he’s got, though you can’t trust him as anything more than a “why not” option.

TEs
Austin Seferian-Jenkins:
This is the true revenge narrative everyone looks for, as it’s the team who ultimately decided to release him after too many off-the-field incidents. To be honest, though, the Bucs weren’t really wrong, and he can’t blame them. In fact, he may now thank them for helping him get his priorities straight. The Bucs have been really good against tight ends this year, allowing just one top-15 performance, and it was to Evan Engram, who has been a TE1 basically all season. Seferian-Jenkins has still yet to post more than 46 yards in a game, so seeing that the Bucs have allowed just three tight end touchdowns with none of them coming to starters (very odd stat), it should worry you. Seferian-Jenkins is just a high-end TE2 this week.

Cameron Brate: Of the 48 pass attempts from Fitzpatrick this year, Brate has seen seven of them, which isn’t an unusually high number. In his time with the Jets, Fitzpatrick almost never targeted tight ends, though the talent was at wide receiver, so you could call him smart for not targeting them. With Evans out for the week, the targets need to be distributed somewhere and Brate has played more of a wide receiver role anyways, while O.J. Howard stays in to block. Because of Evans being out, Brate needs to be in lineups as a TE1. The Jets have struggled with tight ends this year, allowing four of them to finish top-10 through eight games.

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills

Total: 47.0
Line: NO by 2.0

QBs
Drew Brees:
After throwing for at least 32 touchdowns in each of the last nine seasons, we know who Brees is. He’s on pace for just 550 pass attempts, though, which would be his lowest total since 2009. Still, his touchdown rate sits at just 4.7 percent, which is his lowest rate since 2007, though every other major statistic is great. Touchdowns will come, though the Bills haven’t been the team to allow many of them. Outside of one game where they allowed Jameis Winston three touchdowns, they have allowed just four touchdowns in their other seven games. If cornerback E.J. Gaines is out for this game, upgrade Brees, as his replacement Shareece Wright just gets lost at times. The Bills have allowed 300 yards in three of their last four games, making Brees a solid-floor QB1 option. One thing to note, however, is that Brees has been sacked on an NFL-best just 2.83 percent of dropbacks, while the Bills have generated a sack on just 4.43 percent of opponent dropbacks, the fifth-lowest mark in the league. If you give Brees time, he’ll carve you up.

Tyrod Taylor: Opposite of Brees, Taylor has been under duress throughout the season and has been sacked on 9.92 percent of his dropbacks, the second-most in the NFL. He finally got to throw the ball a lot last week, pushing him into the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks on the season. He’ll get Kelvin Benjamin into the arsenal this week, though he won’t produce much with Marshon Lattimore taking away opposing No. 1 wide receivers. The Saints have been phenomenal since the start of Week 3, allowing just one quarterback more than 11.9 fantasy points and that was Matthew Stafford in that game where the Lions fell behind and he threw the ball 52 times. That won’t happen with Taylor, as he’s more of a QB2 in this game than the QB1 he’s been the last few weeks.

RBs
Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara:
Can we just proclaim Week 9 as Alvin Kamara week? He was special in that game, earning just one fewer touch than Ingram. It was the closest gap between the two running backs all season. It was also the sixth-straight game Kamara has totaled 11.7 or more PPR points. Did you know that Kamara has more fantasy points than Ingram in both standard and PPR formats? I’d still rather have Ingram for the remainder of the season, but Kamara is right there on his tail. The Bills are a middle-of-the-pack run defense, allowing just under four yards per carry, though they have allowed four running back touchdowns in the last two weeks. No running back has eclipsed 79 yards on the ground against them, though there have already been seven running backs who have totaled at least 30 receiving yards against them. On the road, consider Ingram a low-end RB1 while Kamara should be able to remain in the solid RB2 conversation.

LeSean McCoy: When someone who was drafted in the first round has a bad game, it’s going to get exaggerated, let alone when it happens on primetime television. Don’t forget about the four prior games where he totaled at least 13.8 PPR points, including two games with more than 27 PPR points. The Saints have a problem defending the run, despite what happened to Doug Martin last week. They’ve already allowed three 100-yard running backs this season and actually allowed Christian McCaffrey to rack up more than 100 receiving yards. Considering Kelvin Benjamin will have his hands full, look for McCoy to get a large workload in both the run-game and pass-attack, returning to RB1 territory.

WRs
Michael Thomas:
Another week gone by and another week where Thomas has yet to have an ‘explosion’ game. He’s seemingly turned into Julio Jones, as someone who almost always gets you the yardage, but hasn’t scored many touchdowns. He’s the go-to wide receiver for Brees, you can clearly see that when watching the game, but since Brees hasn’t thrown many touchdowns, Thomas’s numbers have suffered, though he’s still a top-12 wide receiver. Against the Bills, he’ll match-up with either E.J. Gaines, who would be coming off a multi-game absence, or Shareece Wright, who is among the worst cornerbacks in the game. He’ll also see some of the rookie Tre’Davious White, though he’s tailed off just a bit over the last month. Thomas is a WR1 in this game who has actually posted better numbers on the road during his short career. If you have to even debate whether or not to start Thomas, trade him to someone who deserves the consistency he offers week-in and week-out.

Ted Ginn: He’s now totaled at least 59 yards in four straight games and has scored a touchdown in three of the last six games. Locked in as Brees’ No. 2 target, Ginn is always going to be on fantasy radars, though his matchup this week is the toughest one of the Saints wide receivers, as he’ll see White the most in coverage. Still, it takes just one play, and knowing how lackluster the Bills pass-rush has been, Ginn is on the WR3 radar this week.

Willie Snead/Brandon Coleman: After playing just four snaps in Week 8, Snead played 18 snaps last week, cutting into Coleman’s workload. The fact that they are ramping Snead’s snaps up so slowly, it’s going to be impossible to trust either of them outside of a desperation WR5 in season-long leagues. If I had to bet, it’d be that Snead passes Coleman in snaps this week, though not enough to recommend you start him this week.

Kelvin Benjamin: In his first game with the Bills… you don’t want to play him if you can help it. The Saints took a chance on cornerback Marshon Lattimore in the first round of the draft this year, and it’s paying off big time. He’s already flashing as a legitimate shutdown cornerback and is being asked to single-handedly cover guys like Mike Evans in coverage, who he held to just one catch for 13 yards last week. Taylor doesn’t take chances and try to fit the ball into windows that aren’t there, so it’s hard to trust Benjamin as anything more than a touchdown-hopeful WR4 this week.

Jordan Matthews: The best matchup on the field for the Bills, as the Saints are deploying converted-safety Kenny Vaccaro to cover slot receivers. Matthews saw a season-high eight targets in Week 9 which is a step in the right direction, but remember that they threw the ball 40 times in that game. Unlikely to happen again, consider Matthews a WR4 who should succeed in this matchup, though he’s given us little reason to trust him in a Bills uniform.

Zay Jones: Don’t let one good game skew your judgement of Jones, especially when you know that it came against the Jets secondary that was without their best cornerback. Jones still has fewer fantasy points than Bruce Ellington. He could win in a matchup against Ken Crawley, though I’m sure you can do better than Jones this week. He showed a glimpse, but shouldn’t be trusted as anything more than a WR5 against the Saints.

TEs
Coby Fleener:
There was a Fleener sighting on the field last week, as he totaled 33 yards on his biggest play of the year. Still, he’s not heavily involved in the gameplan, seeing just seven targets in the last four games combined. The Bills have allowed two performances of more than 10 PPR points to tight ends (both came in the same game, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate), but have held every other tight end to 57 yards or less with no touchdowns. He’s not on the streaming radar this week.

Charles Clay/Nick O’Leary: It’s been rumored that Clay may be able to play this week, but even if he does, I’d like to see him play a full complement of snaps after missing multiple weeks. On top of that, the Saints have been one of the better teams in the league at defending tight ends, allowing just one tight end to reach 30 yards receiving, and that was Rob Gronkowski. Even if Clay misses this game, O’Leary isn’t a streaming option.

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions

Total: 44.0
Line: DET by 12.0

QBs
DeShone Kizer:
After scoring at least 18.5 fantasy points in two of his first three games (due to rushing totals), Kizer has now failed to score 15 points in each of his last four games, including three of them with less than four fantasy points. The Lions haven’t been a defense to target, either, as they’ve allowed just one top-12 quarterback this year and have held five of them outside the top-20. Brett Hundley was the first quarterback to rush for more than 2 yards against them, so it’s not likely to suit Kizer’s strengths. He’s just a low-end QB2 in this game.

Matthew Stafford: There was a lull in production for Stafford for a little bit in Weeks 2-4, but he appears to be hitting his stride, as he’s ramped up his production as of late. He’s always been a high-floor option, but with the run game struggling as much as they are, he’s getting most of their points on the board. On top of that, the Browns have been a defense to target for as long as most can remember. Dating back to the 2015 season, they’ve now allowed multiple touchdown passes in 27 of their last 34 games. The only quarterback to finish outside the top-16 against them this year was Marcus Mariota who apparently came back from his injury too soon. Stafford is a high-floor QB1 this week.

RBs
Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson:
The bye week was supposed to be the time where the Browns could switch to Johnson as their lead back, but it just so happens that Crowell had his best game of the year before their bye week, scoring his first touchdown of the year against the Vikings in London. After losing Haloti Ngata prior to Week 6, the Lions were crushed by Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, but have looked like a different team after the bye week, holding Le’Veon Bell to just 76 yards on 25 carries and then the Packers running backs to just 46 yards on 11 carries. Knowing Crowell has played better recently, he’s still on the board as an RB3 who’ll get double digit carries, but he wouldn’t be a suggested tournament play or anything. Johnson touched the ball at least 10 times in back-to-back games for the first time all season in Weeks 7 and 8, though it’s hard to say if this is a trend. There have been 12 different running backs to finish as top-36 options in PPR against the Lions, so Johnson remains in the low-end RB3 conversation.

Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick: If you finally had a chance to watch the Lions last week on primetime television, you know why Abdullah has averaged just 3.4 yards per carry on the season. The Lions have scored just three rushing touchdowns as a team this year, something that’s likely to remain stagnant against the Browns, who suddenly have a lights out run defense. Most haven’t realized it (we here have), but the Browns have been insanely good against opposing run games this year, holding them to just 2.91 yards per carry and three touchdowns through half the season. There are just four teams in the NFL who have allowed fewer rushing yards than them, and they’ve played against some tough competition. Because of that, Abdullah is just a high-floor RB3 in this contest. They are allowing nearly 50 yards per game through the air to running backs, so Riddick isn’t a complete waste for this game, though it’s hard to produce while averaging just 7.0 touches per game. He’s just an RB4.

WRs
Ricardo Louis:
Looking over the Browns wide receiver group, I almost chose not to put anyone in this article. It’s not that you want to start Louis, but looking at this team over the last three games they’ve played, he’s seen double the targets of any other wide receiver, though he’s failed to total more than 42 yards in any of those games. The Lions aren’t likely to use Darius Slay in a shadow situation against Louis, so he makes it onto the radar as a WR5 this week.

Marvin Jones: Combining the start Jones has had with the start he had in 2016, and we’d have a top-five wide receiver. Stafford is trusting him in every one-on-one situation he can, and Jones is doing work. He trails Golden Tate by just two targets on the season and has scored just 2.6 fewer PPR points than the PPR stud Tate. Jones has now seen at least 11 targets in three straight games and has at least six receptions in four straight games. Against the Browns, a player performing like him can be relied upon as a borderline WR1 in fantasy. Any wide receiver who has seen at least seven targets against the Browns has finished as a top-12 option.

Golden Tate: Can both Jones and Tate have top-24 weeks? According to the first eight games, the answer would be no, as there have yet to be two wide receivers to finish even top-36 against the Browns. But we’re playing the odds here. It’s possible that this is the week Tate finds the end zone and Jones finishes with five catches for 54 yards or something like that (I put in an obscure number in case I’m psychic or something). Tate himself has seen at least eight targets in each of the last four games and has at least 86 yards in each of the last three games. You can’t convince me that he shouldn’t be ranked outside the top-24 options this week, though his matchup is tougher than Jones’.

TEs
David Njoku and Seth DeValve:
Outside of the week where they allowed Ed Dickson to go bananas, the Lions have held every other tight end to less than 50 yards receiving. They’ve also allowed just one touchdown to the position and it was Evan Engram who can be considered a wide receiver. Knowing that Njoku has more touchdowns than all of their wide receivers combined means you should leave him in the TE2 conversation, but he’s not a streamer in 1TE leagues. DeValve has seen the exact same number of targets as Njoku, but just isn’t as much as an athletic freak.

Eric Ebron: After we heard tons of rumors about Ebron being courted by multiple teams, the Lions decided to hold onto their 24-year-old tight end. He’s seen 10 targets over the last two weeks, so there’s hope that there’s still something there. The Browns are the test. If he can’t finish as a top-12 option against them, the dream is over. Through eight games, they have allowed seven top-15 performances to tight ends, including four top-five games. Of the eight starting tight ends, seven of them have left the game with at least 52 yards and/or a touchdown. Ebron is on the TE1/TE2 border this week.


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