Last week it wasn’t cornerback matchups that you had to worry about with some of your big name wide receivers. No, instead it was storms. Rain and wind can have a massive effect on what a team’s gameplan is. We aren’t weathermen at FantasyPros, we’re football analysts. So instead of focusing on the things that are out of our control (mother nature), let’s talk about some of the things we can control, and that is which wide receivers we do or don’t put into our fantasy lineups.
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When someone just starts playing fantasy football, they expect their first-round draft pick to perform each and every week. They likely look at Antonio Brown last week and think, “that’s the reason I lost.” Instead, you may have had JuJu Smith-Schuster on your bench, not knowing his matchup was much better. That’s what this article is for, to give you a heads up on which star players should perform beyond expectations, as well as those who you should worry about. The player lining up across from them on the field has the largest effect on their projected value, so let’s talk about a few matchups that jump off the page.
Matchups to Exploit
Michael Thomas vs. Vernon Hargreaves
It appears that the Bucs will be forced to play without Brent Grimes for a second straight week, only this time, the opposition will take full advantage of their mismatch. Hargreaves was extremely disappointing as a rookie, allowing over 1,000 yards in his coverage alone. He’s given up the seventh-most yardage this year and will be going against Thomas, who ranks 10th among wide receivers in yards per game. On the year, this Bucs secondary has allowed 11 top-24 performances to wide receivers, and most of that was with Grimes. Thomas should be able to steal the Bucs lunch money all game.
Sammy Watkins vs. Eli Apple/Ross Cockrell
Once we learned that the Giants had suspended Janoris Jenkins, my Spidey-senses started to tingle. Jenkins is a legit No. 1 cornerback that removes top wide receivers from the game. Despite him doing that, the Giants have still managed to allow two 20-point performances to wide receivers. That’s primarily because Apple has been awful in coverage, already allowing five touchdowns this season. Jenkins’ backup Ross Cockrell wasn’t bad in Pittsburgh a year ago, but now we’re seeing Joe Haden excel in the role he played while there, forcing you to debate whether or not the system helped him out and if it’s why the Steelers traded him. Either way, the Rams have had the bye week to figure out ways to utilize Watkins, and the Giants just did them a big favor by suspending Jenkins.
DeSean Jackson vs. Ken Crawley
While Mike Evans is dueling with the Saints new shutdown cornerback Marshon Lattimore, Jackson will match-up with the underwhelming Crawley. He wasn’t supposed to be starting, but was forced into action due to injuries. In the game against the Lions just a few weeks ago, he allowed touchdowns to both Marvin Jones and Golden Tate. Jackson on turf is a dangerous thing and Crawley doesn’t exactly have the wheels to deal with him.
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Vontae Davis
It’s not as if you were debating benching Hopkins or anything, but this is more about his matchup for DFS purposes. The Colts have allowed nearly double the amount of big plays (20-plus yards) than the next closest team. A large part of that is because Davis isn’t the player he once was. In fact, he hasn’t been for the last two years. The 14.1 yards per reception that he’s allowing this year is his worst mark since his rookie year way back in 2009 and he just lost his starting free safety Malik Hooker for the year. If the Texans want, they can just target Hopkins deep over and over.
Doug Baldwin vs. Kendall Fuller
Most would be surprised to learn that the Redskins have allowed just one top-12 performance this year and just two top-18 performances to wide receivers. In both situations, it was slot receiver Nelson Agholor. The Redskins have had issues covering the middle of the field, whether it be tight ends or slot receivers, which is where Baldwin plays 70 percent of his snaps. Fuller is someone who got benched towards the end of 2016 for poor play. He has played better this season, but not to the level of someone like Baldwin.
Matchups to Worry About
Alshon Jeffery vs. Aqib Talib
The acquisition of Jeffery hasn’t been as great as some had hoped, as he’s totaled 37 yards or less in half of his games. Putting him against one of the best cornerbacks in the game is not going to fix that. Talib has allowed just a 52 percent catch rate in his coverage and is allowing a ridiculously-low 8.2 yards per reception. The only wide receiver to go up against him and post top-40 numbers this year was Dez Bryant who needed 15 targets and to score a touchdown, and still finished as just the WR11. Jeffery will be lucky to post WR3 numbers this week.
A.J. Green vs. Jalen Ramsey
Welcome to the matchup of the week, as you have two of the most talented at their position going head-to-head. Ramsey has allowed just 5.14 yards per target in his coverage this year – keep in mind that he covers No. 1 wide receivers all the time. There have been two wide receivers to post more than 7.0 standard fantasy points against them this year and they were Antonio Brown (19 targets) and Deandre Hopkins (16 targets). Green has the talent to win this matchup at times, but nobody has consistently beat Ramsey, so slide Green’s expectations down in this game.
Pierre Garcon vs. Patrick Peterson
(UPDATE: Garcon has been placed on injured reserve and is out for the season. He will not play in this game.) This is one of the matchups we’ve already seen this year and if you’d read this article, you wouldn’t have played Garcon back in Week 4 when he totaled just four catches for 36 yards on eight targets. Peterson has been arguably the best cornerback in football this year and knowing that Garcon hasn’t been connecting with C.J. Beathard, you have yourself a full-on fade this weekend.
Mike Evans vs. Marshon Lattimore
This could be a matchup we’ll be seeing for quite some time between these two. In the same division, Evans and Lattimore will battle it out in one of the more intense matchups of the weekend. Lattimore is a rookie, but has already flashed, showing shutdown ability. He’s allowed just 127 yards in his coverage on 25 targets without a single touchdown. He’s a large part of the reason the Saints defense has taken a big step forward this season. You’re never going to bench Evans in season-long leagues, but you should lower your expectations in this matchup. Winston is still going to target Evans a ton if they leave him one-on-one, which should give him plenty of opportunities.
Davante Adams vs. Darius Slay
This one could go a different way, but the reason I’m assuming Slay shadows Adams instead of Jordy Nelson is due to the fact that Nelson travels into the slot one-third of the time, while Adams goes there just 15-20 percent of the time. Slay doesn’t ever travel into the slot, so covering Nelson could get dicey for them. The only wide receiver to score double-digit fantasy points against Slay in standard leagues this year has been Kelvin Benjamin who caught four passes for 58 yards and a touchdown. Outside of him, Stefon Diggs, Antonio Brown, and Julio Jones were all held to less than 10 standard fantasy points. That risk combined with Brett Hundley under center means Adams is no longer a must-start, though with bye weeks here, you may not have a choice.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
