Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week. The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another. Have you ever wondered what stats you should review to understand how productive certain players can truly be?
What impact would that have on your fantasy football team? In essence that is the goal of this column. This article will provide you a line of sight regarding noteworthy stats and trends you should be aware of to dominate your league.
Past performance is not indicative of future production in fantasy football, but it can provide you a line of sight of what stats to pay attention to. This week I will highlight six statistics from Week 14 you should know as we head into the first week of the fantasy playoffs.
The secret to winning college bowl pick’ems 
ANTONIO BROWN LED ALL WIDE RECEIVERS IN TARGETS WITH 18
Antonio Brown’s last four games
vs. TEN: 10 rec 144 yards 3 TDs
vs. GB: 10 rec 169 yards 2 TDs
@ CIN: 8 rec 101 yards 1 TD
vs. BAL: 11 rec 213 yards🆎=🐐 pic.twitter.com/NI3jeNM3yh
— 360°FantasyFootball (@360FFB) December 11, 2017
Brown caught 11 of 18 targets for 213 receiving yards against the Ravens. He had a 27 percent target share and accumulated 226 Air Yards. The only WR with more Air Yards than Brown was DeAndre Hopkins (240) who also happened to tie him for the most receptions in Week 14. Brown led all WRs with 75 yards after the catch, but this was the first game he did not have a touchdown in a month. This performance was another great example of how, like Calvin Johnson before him, Brown is simply in a tier by himself when it comes to statistical production. He is currently averaging 12.2 targets, 7.6 receptions, and 116.1 receiving yards per game this season.
LE’VEON BELL AVERAGED 2.23 YARDS AFTER CONTACT PER ATTEMPT
Le'Veon Bell & Antonio Brown are on pace to become the first teammate duo in NFL history to each have 1,800+ scrimmage yards in the same season@L_Bell26 is on pace for 2,073 scrimmage yards@AB84 is on pace for 1,857 scrimmage yards
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 13, 2017
Bell generated 125 total yards on 22 touches and scored three touchdowns against the Ravens. He continues to be a multi-faceted offensive weapon for the Steelers. As a runner, Bell has averaged 21.8 rushing attempts, 85 rushing yards, and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game this season. As a receiver, he has averaged 7.1 targets, 5.8 receptions, and 0.2 touchdowns per game this season. Bell now has four career games with a rushing and receiving touchdown, tied for most by any player since entering the league in 2013 according to NFL Research.
KENYAN DRAKE LED THE DOLPHINS IN RUSHING AND RECEIVING YARDS
Last week Kenyan Drake had the highest grade for a RB all season – he followed that up with another great performance tonight #NEvsMIA pic.twitter.com/vniytyElv0
— PFF MIA Dolphins (@PFF_Miami) December 12, 2017
Drake accumulated 114 rushing yards on 25 attempts and caught five of six targets for 79 yards against the Patriots. Jarvis Landry finished with 46 receiving yards and two touchdowns on eight catches. Did you know that Drake (4.5) has a higher ADOT or average depth of target than Landry (3.7) the last three games? Drake is being used as a workhorse over the last two games and remains a high-end RB1 if Damian Williams continues to miss time.
MARQUISE GOODWIN OWNED A 36 PERCENT TARGET SHARE
Fastest players (MPH) this season (per NFL Next Gen Stats):
1. Leonard Fournette: 22.05
2. Martavis Bryant: 21.72
3. Marquise Goodwin: 21.68
4. Derrick Henry: 21.64
5. Tyreek Hill: 21.64— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 13, 2017
Goodwin and 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo continue to be on the same page. Goodwin has 26 targets and 18 catches over the last three games while leading all 49ers receivers with 397 Air Yards over that time frame. Goodwin is locked in as the team’s No. 1 WR and can be viewed as a high-end WR3 with upside in most formats.
VERNON DAVIS LED ALL TIGHT END IN AIR YARDS
Reception No. 542 for @VernonDavis85. #HTTR #WASvsLAC pic.twitter.com/tG3nD66Miq
— Washington Redskins (@Redskins) December 10, 2017
Davis only caught two of seven targets for 26 yards and a touchdown in a difficult matchup against the Chargers defense. The Chargers have had success is locking down tight ends recently including Evan Engram and Jared Cook. Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins did not connect with him on multiple passes of 20 yards or more. The one positive is that Davis accumulated 135 Air Yards. The only other tight end with 100 yards or more in this metric was Travis Kelce (126). Success or failure for receivers in fantasy football is defined by volume. Davis will continue to see opportunities now that Jordan Reed‘s season is officially over with his placement on injured reserve.
TODD GURLEY AVERAGED 5.1 YARDS AFTER CONTACT PER ATTEMPT
Todd Gurley broke 3,000 yards for his career on Sunday. He's the 20th player since the merger to reach 3,000+ yards and 25+ TDs by the 42nd game of his career https://t.co/VP9Nai8nlM pic.twitter.com/PTsYbfPMF9
— ProFootballReference (@pfref) December 13, 2017
This was Gurley’s highest single-game mark since Week 14 of his rookie season according to Pro Football Focus. He rushed for 96 yards and two touchdowns on 13 attempts with three receptions for an additional 39 yards against the Eagles. Gurley has averaged 16 rushing attempts and 70.2 rushing yards per game over the last four. He is an elite RB1 and is another example of how recency bias can cloud our outlook on players. Gurley continues to outperform his draft position from this summer and continues to reward players who selected him.
WHAT COMES NEXT?
The purpose of this column is to make you a more informed fantasy player and put you in the best possible position to harness this intellectual capital into a league-winning team. What statistics stood out to you? Please leave a comment below or reach out to me on Twitter.
You can find me @EricNMoody, and I am always open to answering questions or discussing football. Please be on the lookout for this column every Wednesday during the regular season. Until next time!
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS
Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.
