Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week.
The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another. Have you ever wondered what stats you should review to understand how productive certain players can truly be?
What impact would that have on your fantasy football team? In essence that is the goal of this column. This article will provide you a line of sight regarding noteworthy stats and trends you should be aware of to dominate your league.
Past performance is not indicative of future production in fantasy football, but it can provide you a line of sight of what stats to pay attention to. This week I will highlight seven statistics from Week 16 you should know as we head into the championship week.
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TODD GURLEY PRODUCED 5.45 YARDS PER ROUTE RUN ACCORDING TO PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS
Todd Gurley is 💰💰 pic.twitter.com/kpUCtkir7u
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) December 25, 2017
Gurley generated 118 rushing yards on 22 attempts while catching 10 of 13 targets for 158 receiving yards and two touchdowns against the Titans. He is the first player with 100 or more rushing yards and 150 or more receiving yards in the same game since Herschel Walker in Week 15 of the 1986 season according to NFL Research. The Rams offense is producing 2.4 points per drive this season which ranks third in the NFL. Gurley leads the league in rushing yards with 1,305, rushing touchdowns (13), and total touchdowns from scrimmage (19). His masterful performances over the last two weeks have helped fantasy players win championships. He has accounted for an astounding 38 percent of the Rams yards total yards and 43 percent of the team’s rushing and receiving touchdowns, both are league highs in 2017. Did you know that Julio Jones, Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas, Adam Thielen, Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Evans, and T.Y. Hilton all have fewer receiving touchdowns than Gurley (6) this season?
DION LEWIS SET A CAREER-HIGH WITH 129 RUSHING YARDS
153 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns were enough to make Dion Lewis the AFC's Offensive Player of the Week for Week 16. https://t.co/eYlpWMfVeK pic.twitter.com/5KtKrMR7LP
— Zack Cox (@ZackCoxNESN) December 27, 2017
Lewis accumulated 129 rushing yards and a touchdown on 24 attempts against the Bills. He also had five receptions for 24 yards and a receiving touchdown. Lewis was deployed as a bell cow due to the injuries to running backs Rex Burkhead and James White. He generated 68 yards after contact according to Pro Football Focus. Since Week 8 Lewis has averaged 13.9 rushing attempts and 72 rushing yards per game. He also has a positive rushing and receiving fantasy points over expectation which suggests Lewis has outperformed his volume of touches. Lewis has broken a tackle on nearly 30 percent of his rushing attempts according to Sports Info Solutions. He is positioning himself to be one of the most coveted running backs in free agency this offseason along with Le’Veon Bell, Carlos Hyde, Jerick McKinnon, and Isaiah Crowell.
JOSH DOCTSON LED ALL WIDE RECEIVERS IN AIR YARDS WITH 191
Josh Doctson with a 48-yard touchdown from Kirk Cousins pic.twitter.com/UKojXl4xnW
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) December 24, 2017
Doctson caught two of 13 targets for 61 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Broncos. He has all of the physical attributes to be a great NFL receiver, but cannot seem to get on the same page with quarterback Kirk Cousins. The irony is that Doctson leads the Redskins with six touchdowns. His rookie season was lost to injury so this is essentially Doctson’s first full year as a professional football player. The Redskins desperately need him to step up. There is a belief among fantasy players that NFL wide receivers do not break out until their third season in the league. Could Doctson’s 2018 season live up the expectations many had once he was selected by the franchise in the NFL Draft?
LARRY FITZGERALD LED ALL WIDE RECEIVERS IN TARGETS WITH 15
@AZCardinals @LarryFitzgerald has the most slot receiving yards (632) of any WR. Yet he is only lined up in the slot 64% of the time, only the 26th highest rate among Slot WRs
— David Holden (@Holdentheball) December 5, 2017
Elite wide receivers like Fitzgerald have the ability to transcend quarterback play. He caught nine of 15 targets for 119 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Giants. Fitzgerald has averaged 9.9 targets, 6.7 receptions, and 73.4 receiving yards per game this season. He also has a positive seasonal receiving fantasy points over expectation which suggests he is outperforming his target volume. Eight of Fitzgerald’s nine catches resulted in either a Cardinals first down or touchdown according to Pro Football Reference. He has averaged 9.5 targets, 5.7 receptions, and 67.1 receiving yards per game since the 2010 season.
ANTONIO GATES ACCUMULATED 80 AIR YARDS
For the 87th time…Rivers to @antoniogates85 for the TD! #LACvsNYJ
🐐🐐🐐 pic.twitter.com/bFQKUSZIte
— Los Angeles Chargers (@Chargers) December 24, 2017
The only tight ends with more Air Yards than Gates were Zach Ertz (89) and Travis Kelce (120). He caught eight of nine targets for 81 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Jets which were season-highs. Gates played more due to Hunter Henry being ruled out and produced 2.31 yards per route run according to Pro Football Focus. He is an excellent streamer this week at the tight end position.
ZACH ERTZ LEADS THE EAGLES WITH 14 TARGETS
Shot 1 – Two of the biggest missed throws from Nick Foles in this game happened down in the red zone to Zach Ertz, but we've seen him make these throws before… #Eagles pic.twitter.com/YonoCCqVB6
— Fran Duffy (@fduffy3) December 27, 2017
Ertz was one of the few offensive bright spots for the Eagles against the Raiders. He caught nine of 14 targets for 81 receiving yards which lead the team in those two statistical categories as quarterback Nick Foles‘ security blanket. Ertz could have had a bigger fantasy day, but Foles inaccuracies resulted in the pair not connecting in the end zone. He generated 53 percent of his yards after the catch with an aDOT or average depth of target of 6.4.
TOM BRADY HAS THROWN AN INTERCEPTION IN FIVE STRAIGHT GAMES
DeShone Kizer is the only QB to throw more INTs in the month of December than Tom Brady.
"Todd Gurley is the MVP of the National Football League as it stands right now." — @EricDickerson pic.twitter.com/6jmQx8IenN
— UNDISPUTED (@undisputed) December 27, 2017
Brady completed 21 of 28 passes for 224 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception against the Bills. Brady has averaged 33.5 pass attempts, 263.3 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns, and 1.0 interceptions per game over the last five games. He has barely been a top-20 fantasy quarterback during that time frame, but is currently leading all quarterbacks in passing yards with 4,387. The Patriots have won 12 games for a record eighth-straight season. Brady has an excellent matchup against the Jets this week.
WHAT COMES NEXT?
The purpose of this column is to make you a more informed fantasy player and put you in the best possible position to harness this intellectual capital into a league-winning team. What statistics stood out to you? Please leave a comment below or reach out to me on Twitter.
You can find me @EricNMoody, and I am always open to answering questions or discussing football. Next week I will wrap up this column for the 2017 season by providing a season overview. Until next time!
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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.
