DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 14
This week’s game stack is a cheap one led by a value QB, his near-minimum salary, trusty, slot wideout and the running back on the favored opposition. They’re joined by a trio of target-machine receivers with massive ceilings.
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF): $5,500 @ Texans
Trent Taylor (WR – SF): $3,300 @ Texans
Lamar Miller (RB – HOU): $5,800 vs. 49ers
The 49ers scored just 15 points on five field goals in Garoppolo’s first start for San Francisco, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He led the offense to 388 total yards and fell just seven yards short of a 300-yard passing effort. It was a solid if unspectacular debut for him against a good Bears defense.
He’ll have a chance to build on that performance in a better matchup this week. The Texans have allowed the most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks this year, according to Pro-Football-Reference.
Jimmy G wasn’t shy about airing it out to his receivers last week. Marquise Goodwin led the team in targets (eight), receptions (eight), and receiving yards (99). He’s a fine stack partner with Garoppolo, but Goodwin’s salary has surged from $4,000 last week to $5,100 this week. Taylor, on the other hand, has seen his salary rise just $300 from the minimum salary of $3,000 to $3,300 this week.
The rookie receiver isn’t the downfield threat world-class speedster Goodwin is, but he made for a reliable option for Garoppolo and strung together a useful six receptions on six targets for 92 yards. Taylor’s a great punt in cash games, but this is a GPP piece, and he’s a strong play there as well. Even if he takes a slight step back, double-digit fantasy points are attainable, and a hell of a get at a near minimum salary.
What’s equally important is that rostering Taylor isn’t just about what he’s capable of doing. It’s also about the salary space he frees up for squeezing in an extra stud. Getting back to the rookie receiver, the matchup is great for him.
Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Texans 31st defending No. 2 receivers and 24th defending “Other” receivers. Houston is tied for the eighth most DraftKings points ceded per game to wideouts this year.
Miller opposes the Garoppolo/Taylor stack, and he and the Texans are three-point favorites. If the game goes to script, Miller should be active protecting a lead, and the QB/WR duo would be tasked with airing it out to come from behind. Using Miller with Garoppolo and Taylor is a correlation play, but Miller’s an outstanding option based on his own merit, too.
FO ranks the 49ers 20th defending the run, and they’re tied for the second most DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs. Miller has been leaned on heavily this season and is averaging 18.8 touches per game. Over the last three games, he’s been even more involved in the offense averaging 18 carries and three receptions per game.
Miller totaled 94 yards from scrimmage last week and scored a touchdown in each of the two games before that. He offers a unique blend of a high-ish floor and ceiling at a very palatable salary.
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC): $8,300 vs. Redskins
I’ve sung Allen’s praises in the FanDuel lineup advice pieces, but he’s an even more integral piece of my lineups at DraftKings due to the full-point PPR scoring. Allen’s single-game DraftKings scoring low over the last three weeks is 29.5 points, and he’s averaging 36.63 DraftKings points per game during that three-game stretch. High scoring is bound to happen with Philip Rivers targeting him at a silly pace.
Over the last three weeks, Allen has been targeted 41 times, and he’s hauled in 33 of them (80.49% catch percentage). He’s also picked up the 100-yard receiving bonus in each of those three games and scored at least one touchdown in each of those contests. Allen’s completely matchup proof and built for a full-point PPR format.
Josh Gordon (WR – CLE): $5,500 vs. Packers
Gordon’s another familiar face if you checked out my FanDuel lineup advice pieces. As is the case at FanDuel, Gordon’s underpriced at DraftKings. In fact, he’s a little more underpriced at DraftKings than at FanDuel.
Gordon’s FanDuel salary accounts for 11.17% of the salary cap, and at DraftKings his salary accounts for just 11.0% of the salary cap. The gap isn’t much, but it exists. And it’s probably even more glaring when considering that the PPR scoring difference between the sites enhances the value of pass catchers at DraftKings.
Gordon immediately became DeShone Kizer’s top option in Cleveland’s passing attack, and he led the team in targets (11), receiving yards (85), and tied for the team lead in receptions (four). After facing a talented Chargers defense on the road last week, he faces a more giving Packers’ defense in Cleveland this week. FO ranks Green Bay 21st defending the pass and 29th defending No. 1 receivers.
The Packers have allowed the fourth most DraftKings points per game to receivers this year. Eat the chalk with Gordon this week.
Larry Fitzgerald (WR – ARI): $6,500 vs. Titans
Fitz rounds things out among the touted players as yet another high-ceiling receiver who’s tailor-made for full-point PPR scoring. Blaine Gabbert has made three starts at quarterback for the Cardinals, and Fitz has cleared 90 yards with a touchdown in two of three games with 19 receptions on 20 targets in his two good games. He sandwiched those games around a clunker, but the clunker is forgivable since it came against the uber-stingy pass defense of the Jaguars.
Even in his bad game, Fitz received eight targets from Gabbert. Fitzgerald should have little trouble giving the home crowd plenty to cheer about against the Titans this week.
Tennessee has allowed the seventh most DraftKings points per game to receivers this season. FO ranks the Titans 25th defending the pass.