This week’s DraftKings GPP lineup picks feature a QB/WR/WR stack and a game stack with a hot running back and underpriced wideout. Not included among the picks below is Antonio Brown. I’ve touted AB in both FanDuel lineup pieces for this week, and he’ll be a staple in my DraftKings lineups as well.
I slightly prefer him to Le’Veon Bell if choosing between the two, primarily because of the presence of some grossly underpriced running backs that include the one touted below and Kenyan Drake ($5,800), among others. Furthermore, AB’s blowup weeks have been higher scoring than Bell’s.
Regardless, each will be included in a bunch of my GPP rosters, and they should be in a bunch of yours as well. Moving on, the following players have high ceilings, and a few will probably carry lower ownership rates than they should, which is ideal for setting yourself apart in GPPs.
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Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB): $6,800 @ Panthers
Davante Adams (WR – GB): $6,800 @ Panthers
Jordy Nelson (WR – GB): $6,300 @ Panthers
Rodgers last played in Week 6, and he exited that contest early. He’s the fourth most expensive quarterback on the DraftKings main slate this week.
As great as Rodgers is, the lengthy layoff and pricey salary (he’s $100 more than Ben Roethlisberger, who should run laps around him in terms of ownership rate) should significantly depress his salary. This also says nothing of a matchup that many will perceive as bad, but there’s more on that to come. I’m not a doctor, and I haven’t been privy to watching Rodgers practice, so I can’t assure gamers that he’ll avoid re-injury or be sharp.
What I can definitively say is that if he returns to prior form, his ceiling is through the roof. In his five full games played this year, Rodgers averaged 273.4 yards passing per game, 16.6 yards rushing per game, and tossed 13 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions. He also opened the season with three games eclipsing 300 yards passing.
Can he immediately return to that form? I don’t know, but if you wait to see it before investing, you won’t get the advantage of a low ownership rate.
Moving on to the matchup for him, it might not be as bad as it appears at first blush. The Panthers have allowed the 11th fewest DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks this season, according to Pro-Football-Reference. However, they’ve flashed some chinks in the armor in their three games since their Week 11 bye.
In that three-game stretch, they’ve allowed an average of 285.33 yards passing per game and a total of six touchdown passes and two interceptions to the combo of Josh McCown, Drew Brees, and Case Keenum. Also, there’s some running potential, too. McCown and Keenum rushed for 28 yards and 40 yards, respectively, against them.
The bulk of the damage done in the air since the bye has resulted from receivers crushing them. During that three-game run, Robby Anderson, Jermaine Kearse, Michael Thomas, Stefon Diggs, and Adam Thielen have whooped ’em for 6-146-2, 7-105-1, 5-70-1, 6-64-0, and 6-105-1, respectively.
Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Panthers 19th defending No. 1 receivers and 15th defending No. 2 receivers. The matchup should be viewed as a plus for both Adams and Nelson.
In the first five games the of the year playing with Rodgers, Adams averaged 4.6 receptions and 57 yards receiving per game, but he bolstered his scoring with four touchdown receptions. He’s averaged more receptions and receiving yards per game emerging as Brett Hundley’s favorite option, but the higher-scoring upside for the offense coupled with his touchdown-scoring prowess enhance his ceiling with Rodgers back.
The primary beneficiary of Rodgers returning is Nelson. His face has appeared on milk cartons since Rodgers went down.
Nelson was banged up and left Green Bay’s Week 2 contest against the Falcons early, so I’m going to throw that game out. In the other four full games played with Rodgers, Nelson averaged 4.75 receptions and 46 receiving yards per game with six touchdown receptions.
Prior to seeing salaries for this week, I’d mentally prepared for Nelson to be possibly the chalkiest player in Week 15. He’s been priced under $5,000 in four straight games and carried a $4,500 salary last week. If his salary remained in that range, I suspect he would have been the chalkiest player this week.
Instead, DraftKings adjusted his salary to compensate for Rodgers’ return, and at $6,300, he’s not a no-brainer pick — especially for those who want to make Rodgers prove it before trusting him. Nelson’s upside is a top-five scoring week at the position, but he’s priced just outside the top 10 ranking 12th in WR salary. The upside for this trio far exceeds their collective salaries, and they still leave ample room for the likes of an AB and other strong options.
Alex Collins (RB – BAL): $5,000 @ Browns
Corey Coleman (WR – CLE): $4,400 vs. Ravens
Collins salary nudged to the $5,000 threshold for the first time this year, but it’s more than $1,000 short of where it should be. He’s scored more than 23 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he’s riding a four-game streak of scoring at least one touchdown. He’s also caught multiple passes in each of those contests, and he’s bested 70 yards from scrimmage in three of those four games — besting 90 yards from scrimmage in the last two.
I think the host Browns will keep the game closer than the 7.5-point spread favoring the Ravens, according to Pinnacle, but I also believe Baltimore wins, and the game’s script is favorable for Collins. He’s a steal.
While I think the Browns will keep things close, I still suspect they’ll have to air it out to keep it that way. Throw out Baltimore’s strong pass defense ranks for the year. They’re not the same pass defense without top corner Jimmy Smith, and Big Ben threw for more than 500 yards against them last week.
No one is confusing turnover-prone rookie DeShone Kizer with his AFC North counterpart, but he doesn’t need to be that good to help Coleman hit value. After posting a goose egg in Josh Gordon’s return in Week 13, Coleman bounced back with 5-62-1 against the Packers last week. Coleman has 60 or more yards receiving in three of his last four games (all coming after Cleveland’s bye), and he’s caught a touchdown in two of six games played this year.
Coleman’s now the No. 2 wideout with Gordon quickly re-establishing himself as a top-shelf receiver, but there’s room for both to succeed in the offense. Also, Coleman’s ownership rate should benefit from Gordon capturing the daily fantasy community’s attention (i.e., it should be lower thanks to the shiny new toy, so to speak).
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
