DraftKings NFL Lineup Advice: Week 14 (Thur/Sun/Mon)

Dec 6, 2017

Week 14 is here, but before we look ahead to some picks, the results from Week 13 need to be reviewed. Let’s take a look at the hits and misses from last week.

At quarterback, Russell Wilson (24.2 DKP) led the way against the Eagles. Jameis Winston (19.6 DKP) returned from injury and certainly paid off his salary. Drew Brees (14.5 DKP) and the Saints won, but the output wasn’t quite what we needed given his salary. Mitchell Trubisky (10 DKP) was a letdown as was the entire Chicago offense. Le’Veon Bell (32.2 DKP) led the way at running back while Jamaal Williams (23.3 DKP) crushed his value threshold as well. Leonard Fournette (16.9 DKP) was fine for his price while Kareem Hunt (9.3 DKP) didn’t participate a whole lot in the Chiefs’ offensive explosion. Receiver was tough as outside of DeAndre Hopkins (16 DKP). No other option scored more than Cooper Kupp (11.8 DKP). Demaryius Thomas (4.7 DKP) saw plenty of looks, but couldn’t produce against Miami while DeSean Jackson (4.4 DKP) failed to have an impact in Green Bay. Tight end proved to be a strong spot as Delanie Walker (17.3 DKP) and Hunter Henry (15.1 DKP) each exceeded their value thresholds. Both defenses were fine options, as the Chargers (11 DKP) and Titans (10 DKP) exceeded double-digit fantasy points. Let’s take a look at some plays for Week 14 on DraftKings.

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Tom Brady (NE): $7,500 @ MIA
The Patriots travel to Miami for Monday Night Football to face their divisional foe for the second time in three weeks. In their Week 12 matchup, Brady tossed four touchdowns on his way to 22.68 DKP, which certainly isn’t out of reach this week either. Short of last week’s game against the inept play of Trevor Siemian, the Dolphins allowed an average of 252 passing yards and 3.33 touchdowns per game during Weeks 10 through 13. On the season, Miami ranks in the bottom half of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position, so I don’t mind targeting Brady in primetime.

Philip Rivers (LAC): $7,100 vs. WAS
The Redskins have shored things up as of late in regards to their pass defense, but one could point to the fact that they faced Eli Manning and Dak Prescott over their last two games. In Week 10, they allowed 304 passing yard and four touchdowns to Case Keenum, while they coughed up 385 passing yards and two scores to Drew Brees in Week 11. I’m guessing the real story settles somewhere between Weeks 10/11 and Weeks 12/13. Rivers and the Chargers are playing meaningful football in December as the AFC West is suddenly wide open. The veteran has been playing well as of late, and I look for him to continue that in Week 14.

Alex Smith (KC): $6,500 vs. OAK
Smith is coming off of a monster outing in Week 13’s loss to the Jets. The veteran quarterback threw for 366 yards and four touchdowns and even added a 70-yard run in the second quarter. This was a welcome sight for fantasy owners as Smith and the entire Chiefs’ offense had been scuffling heading into Week 13. On tap is a Week 14 divisional showdown against the Raiders, who have allowed an average of 247 passing yards and two touchdowns over their last three games. In their matchup on October 19th, Smith scored 28.68 DKP so there could be another big outing looming. Owners will likely chase last week’s performance, but I would be sure to have some exposure despite the probability of his ownership being inflated.

DeShone Kizer (CLE): $4,900 vs. GB
Hold on to your seats! Kizer has thrown 15 interceptions against just six touchdowns this season, but I like him as a risky, deep flier in tournaments this week. The matchup is a good one as the Packers have overachieved a bit against the pass this season and those cracks are beginning to show. Over their last four games, the Packers have allowed an average of 275 passing yards and two touchdowns per game. With Josh Gordon back in the fold, Kizer has a legitimate threat at his disposal, and I think they connect for a big play or two this week. The downside is obviously huge here, especially given Kizer’s home (9.3 DKP/gm) versus road (18.2 DKP/gm splits). I will note that a lot of those poor home outings were earlier this season when the rookie struggled with on and off the field issues, so hopefully, that’s more noise than anything.

Running Backs

Le’Veon Bell (PIT): $9,100 vs. BAL
If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it. Heck, Bell’s salary even dropped $300 despite scoring 32.2. DKP against the Bengals in Week 13. He figures to continue seeing a heavy workload in yet another primetime divisional showdown. The Ravens have been tough against the run, but this is all about talent and price so be sure to take the modest discount this week when constructing lineups.

LeSean McCoy (BUF): $7,200 vs. IND
After scoring 12.2 DKP last week, McCoy’s price slipped a bit heading into Week 14. A plus matchup awaits as the Colts arrive having allowed an average of 92 rushing yards and 0.7 touchdowns over their last three games. To further the case for McCoy, Tyrod Taylor is uncertain to play this week with a knee injury. If the Bills are forced to turn back to Nathan Peterman in Week 14, you can bet McCoy gets force fed the ball all game long.

Kareem Hunt (KC): $6,500 vs. OAK
Alright, I concede that this is getting borderline ridiculous. That being said, I’m shifting the logic of jumping on a depressed price to now playing the leverage game. I just noted earlier that Alex Smith is likely to have inflated ownership levels and if that’s the case, I’m hoping owners continue to shy away from Hunt. The matchup for Hunt is just as good and the Chiefs desperately need him as they head down the stretch. Play him, don’t play him, I get it, but I cannot eschew him completely in tournaments this week.

Lamar Miller (HOU): $5,800 vs. SF
Miller and the Texans’ rushing attack struggled to do much against the Titans in Week 13, but I think that changes in Week 14. The 49ers have struggled against the run this season, short of an anomaly last week against the putrid Bears. Miller should see a solid workload for the banged-up Texans, and he checks in as a top-five option at the position as a result.

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones (ATL): $8,500 vs. NO
I worry about the oft-injured Jones on a short week, but I don’t mind having a few lineups featuring him this week. The matchup isn’t exactly the best, but Jones can explode at any time. Last week he struggled mightily against Xavier Rhodes in a loss to the Vikings, but this could keep his ownership down a bit. Jones has just three touchdowns on the season, but he’s too talented to ignore in a pivotal division game this week.

Marvin Jones (DET): $6,800 @ TB/Golden Tate (DET): $6,400 @ TB
The availability of Matthew Stafford greatly impacts the value of both receivers, so be sure to monitor the quarterback’s status as the week unfolds. The Buccaneers held the Packers to just 84 passing yards without a score last week, but their four-week average still sits at an unsightly 270 yards and 1.3 touchdowns allowed. Of the two, Jones possesses more upside but you likely cannot go wrong with either one this week.

Jarvis Landry (MIA): $6,000 vs. NE
A lot of the higher-priced receivers find themselves in tricky matchups this week and while you probably shouldn’t avoid them all completely, it might make sense to go overweight on the options in the middle tier. Landry finds himself in a decent spot against a team that he scored 15 DKP against just two weeks ago. With the volume Landry typically sees, he carries nice value in a full point per reception format, and I think he is a strong option as a result.

Josh Gordon (CLE): $5,500 vs. GB
Well, that didn’t take long. On the field for 76.2% of the offensive snaps in Week 13, Gordon returned to action to see 11 targets against the Chargers. He hauled in four for 85 yards and it’s clear that the Browns intend to utilize their talented weapon right away. He figures to be very popular in tournaments this week, especially with a decent matchup awaiting. The Packers have allowed an average of 275 passing yards and two touchdowns per game over their last four. Gordon should be poised for a big game in his first home game in quite some time.

Tight Ends

Jason Witten (DAL): $4,700 @ NYG
Witten doesn’t possess massive upside, but he’s a solid buy for the price given his matchup in Week 14. The Giants have allowed nearly 13 fantasy points per game (PPR scoring) to tight ends over the last four weeks and I think this puts Witten in play. Again, don’t expect a world-beating performance, but he does have a bit of upside.

Dwayne Allen (NE): $2,700 @ MIA
Allen played in 68% of the offensive snaps in Week 5 when Rob Gronkowski was out, but he failed to draw a single target in that game. This underscores his downside, but the matchup is good enough to warrant taking a flier in tournaments. The Dolphins have struggled with tight ends all season and that has held true over their last four weeks, as they’ve allowed four touchdowns to the position over that span.

Defense/Special Teams

Cincinnati Bengals (CIN): $3,300 vs. CHI
The Bears ran all of 36 plays in Week 13 against the woeful 49ers, which underscores how bad this offense is. The Bengals are currently six-point home favorites in a contest that sports a total of just 38 points. This is exactly what you’re chasing when targeting a defense, so be sure to take advantage of this matchup.

Buffalo Bills (BUF): $3,100 vs. IND
The Colts are in town this week, which brings some upside to the table for the Bills. The Jaguars racked up four sacks against Indianapolis last week, which continued a troubling trend for the hapless Colts. In tournaments, give the Bills a look as they won’t break the bank but still provide nice potential.

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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.

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