DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 14
Week 14 AKA “Fantasy Playoffs Week” has arrived, and with it so have some premium value options in DFS this week as injuries have really taken a toll. There’s also a “value stack” in Week 14 that I think is too good to pass up. Let’s take a look.
Dak Prescott (DAL): $5,600 @ NYG
Dak has been a fantasy football disaster since Zeke’s suspension, and hasn’t even broken 16 points in any of his last four games. However, there is hope on the horizon as Dak travels to the Meadowlands to take on the New York Giants and a new beginning to a consecutive games started streak for Eli Manning. It’s easy to chalk up Dak’s lackadaisical fantasy production to Zeke’s suspension – it perfectly coincides with it – but the schedule may actually be the bigger culprit.
In five games against bottom ten pass defenses, Dak has at least 22 points in four of those games with the only outlier being his Week 1 matchup against these New York Giants. In the other eight games, Dak only has one game of more than 22 points which came in Week 4 against the Rams. In Zeke’s eight games played, Dak had the privilege of going up against only three pass defenses ranked inside the top 20, and he averaged about 16.3 points in those games so he wasn’t exactly tearing up the better pass defenses with Zeke in the lineup either.
The 30th ranked Giants pass defense represents the first bottom ten pass defense Dak has played since he went off for 26.66 points against the Chiefs in Week 9, and he’s a season-low $5,600 on the slate this week. Get him in your lineup.
Mike Davis (SEA): $3,700 @ JAX
One thing I can say for sure is that Giovani Bernard is going to be in a whole bunch of DFS lineups at $3,100 with Joe Mixon out. Too many lineups if you ask me. He’s too chalk, and too many times have I seen the obvious, “you gotta have him in there” bottom-barrel price tag running back completely bust. Therefore, Gio Bernard WILL NOT be a DraftKings value play. The Seahawks’ Mike Davis will be a DraftKings value play though.
Mike Davis is running with a purpose and has run circles around all the other healthy backs on the Seahawks which is saying very little, if anything at all. The “Sacksonville” Jaguars aren’t nearly as threatening against the run as they are against the pass, and are prone to allowing some big games to opposing runners. Davis has a real chance to be fantasy football difference maker down the stretch, and is finally locked in as the lead back after playing 73% of snaps and receiving 20 touches last week against the Eagles.
Jamaal Williams (GB): $5,900 @ CLE
I’m a big “three-week window guy.” Over the years, I’ve noticed that breakout runners tend to have a three-week window before they finally hit a price point in which they no longer are great values (Alvin Kamara excluded). It happened with Todd Gurley his rookie year. It happened with Devonta Freeman when he broke out. Jamaal Williams is now on week number two of his breakout having put up back-to-back games of 29.5 and 23.3 points. Thankfully, he’s still under $6,000 so I can suggest him as a value play against the lowly Browns.
Sterling Shephard (NYG): $5,300 v. DAL
Assuming the hamstring issue is nothing serious, Shephard is going to be a great value play against the Cowboys missing top cornerback Orlando Scandrick. The “Geno Smith Effect” has caused Shephard’s price to drop to $5,300, but Eli is now back after his very brief hiatus. Shephard has two games of 28+ points this season, both with Eli under center of course, and remains the top target in the Giants passing game.
Dez Bryant (DAL): $5,900 @ NYG
He’s a no-brainer stack with Dak. The $5,900 is ridiculously low against the Giants. Don’t think, just take.
Jason Witten (DAL): $4,700 v. NYG
It’s pretty obvious at this point that there’s a pricing issue with the Cowboys. It’s no secret that the Giants are inept at defending the tight end (32nd in the NFL). Dak’s big games this season also have a nice correlation with Witten’s big games as Witten has gone for at least 13 points in two of Dak’s three biggest games this season. You might as well just complete the stack if you’ve gone in this far with Cowboys.
Bills D/ST (BUF): $3,100 vs IND
Colts QB Jacoby Brissett was sacked 14 times in two games against the Jaguars this season which is a Colts record for most times being sacked by a single opponent in a season since the stat first started being tracked in 1963. That’s a pretty good way to sum up Jacoby Brissett‘s protection this season.
The Bills aren’t “Sacksonville,” but they are cheap enough to be a value play at $3,100. They have been much better on defense since the Peterman disaster in Los Angeles against the Chargers a couple weeks back, and get one of the better matchups this week against the Colts. Going from the indoor environment at Lucas Oil Stadium to an expected 26 degree day on Sunday in Buffalo is going to make matters even worse for Brissett and the Colts.
That’s it for Week 14. Good luck!
Joey Korman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joey, check out his archive and foll