FanDuel NBA Value Plays: Monday (12/04)

by Chris Berg
Dec 4, 2017

Dennis Smith Jr. has been trending up, and a matchup with Denver shouldn’t derail that

Point Guard

Ricky Rubio (UTA): $5,300 vs. WAS
First up is Ricky Rubio in a matchup with the Washington Wizards who are missing starting star point guard John Wall. While the Wizards do boast the 11th best defense against point guards, Rubio will be matched up with a backup point guard and should find success in that matchup. 

On top of that, he’s exceeded the 30-point mark in FanDuel points twice in the past three games. He’s also a surprisingly decent rebounder averaging almost four rebounds per game to go with his five assists per game average. He should find it easier to score tonight and can fill it up in supplemental stats like assists and rebounds as he’s boasting career highs in field goals, shot attempts and points since joining the Jazz.

Dennis Smith Jr. (DAL): $5,500 vs. DEN
This is a juicy matchup for Dennis Smith Jr. going against the Denver Nuggets who rank 29th in defense against point guards in a game that sports and over/under of 208 points and a predicted score of 103 for the Smith-led team. There will be points to go around, and it appears he is over the stomach virus that was plaguing him recently. Denver ranks 20th in the league in overall defense while playing at a high pace, which should allow Smith more opportunity for production. 

He’s finished in double-figure scoring in five straight games while dishing out at least three assists in each of those contests. Look for him to continue that streak.

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Shooting Guard

J.J. Barea (DAL): $5,000 vs. DEN
Shooting guard is a tough position to find a lot of value in tonight’s slate, but Barea ranks right up at the top going against a defense that ranks 29th against opposing shooting guards and a predicted score of 103. Barea would need 25 FanDuel points to achieve 5x value, which he’s done in three of the past five games. 

He’s dished out at least six assists in five straight games, including two games of at least 10 assists. He can also score in a hurry and in a game that should be close with a lot of points being needed, Barea could fill that void for the Mavericks.

Wesley Matthews (DAL): $4,800 vs. DEN
For a lot of the same reasons Barea is listed here, Wesley Matthews is also a good value play. Going against a soft Denver Nuggets defense in a game projected to go over 200 points and an opportunity to see 25+ minutes as the starting shooting guard should allow for Matthews to achieve the 24 FanDuel points it’d take to get to 5X value. This is a good matchup for Mavericks guards, so this backcourt indeed provides an opportunity to grab some value. 

Matthews is averaging over 12 points per game over his past four and has hit double-digits in three of the past four. Expect that trend to continue.

Small Forward

Bojan Bogdanovic (IND): $4,500 vs. NYK
With some of the heaviest hitters in small forward position in tonight’s slate, you may need some value to supplement one of the core players. This is where a Bojan Bogdanovic would come in. He matches up tonight with the Knicks, who rank 18th in defense against the small forward position. 

Bogdanovic would need just 23 FanDuel points to exceed 5X value, which is very doable for a Bogdanovic who is averaging 14 points and three rebounds a game this season. He’s surpassed those averages in two of the past three games and has scored in double-figures in eight of the previous nine games.

Josh Jackson (PHO): $3,800 at PHI
Josh Jackson would be a bit more of a gamble value play tonight. In a matchup with the fast-paced 76ers this game could turn into a track meet, but with Philadelphia favored by more than 10 per the Westgate sportsbook this game could turn into a blowout, which would favor Jackson. If Jackson can log more than 23 minutes tonight it could significantly increase his odds of hitting the 19 points he’d need to get 5X value. 

The last three times Jackson has played at least 23 minutes he’s put up 36. 9, 28, and 30.1 FanDuel points. If this game turns ugly early, then a gamble on Jackson could certainly pay off.

Power Forward

Domantas Sabonis (IND): $5,200 vs. NYK
As with Bojan Bogdanovic, Domantas Sabonis could be in line for a very productive evening going against a Knicks team that ranks 17th in defense against power forwards. The Pacers are over 10 points favorites per the Westgate sportsbook, so there is blowout potential for this game as well, which furthers the upside for Sabonis tonight. Even if it does turn out to be a competitive game Sabonis can produce enough to cover the 26 points needed to get his value. 

He offers double-double potential finishing in double-figure scoring in three of the past five games, while grabbing at least six rebounds in each of those matchups. In a game against an opponent that struggles against opposing bigs, Sabonis could be in line to at least match those numbers.

Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): $5,200 vs. DEN
Hard to imagine Dirk Nowitzki as a value play in fantasy basketball when he’s been so productive for so long, but this is where he is at in his career. Priced at $5,200 means Nowitzki needs 26 points to get 5x value which he’s done in four of the past six games. Denver ranks 21st in defense against power forwards, and Nowitzki is still seeing right around 25-30 minutes per game. 

This matchup is an excellent opportunity for Nowitzki to continue his streak of six consecutive games in double-digit scoring. This matchup may also give him a chance to supplement his scoring with rebounding, and he’s met or exceeded his season average of five rebounds in seven of the past nine games.

Center

Miles Plumlee (ATL): $3,700 vs. BKN
This value play is solely based on injuries to Atlanta’s frontcourt. Atlanta will be without Dewayne Dedmon, Mike Muscala, and John Collins while Luke Babbitt continues to be hobbled. Plumlee is the only healthy option in the frontcourt so he should see an increased role in a game against a team that ranks 27th against Centers with a predicted score of 108.

Plumlee would only need 18.5 points to exceed 5x value, which he did against this same Brooklyn Nets team two nights ago. In that game, Plumlee posted a respectable 23.4 FanDuel points in 19 minutes of play. It wouldn’t be asking too much for him to repeat that type of performance tonight.

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Chris Berg is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can follow him on Twitter @bergey13.

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