FanDuel NFL Lineup Advice: Week 14 (Thur/Sun/Mon)
FanDuel has followed DraftKings lead and eliminated the Sunday Night Football game from their main slate. As a result, the Thur/Sun/Mon slate now features three games that aren’t on the main slate. This week’s roster for the Thur/Sun/Mon slate features a stud tailback from the Thursday Night Football game and a QB/WR stack from the Sunday Night Football game. There’s a chalky vibe to the high-ceiling roster below, but there’s a notable wrinkle who can set this team apart from the pack.
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): $8,000 vs. Ravens
Big Ben’s season got off to a mediocre start, but he’s rolling now. He’s tossed 10 touchdowns over his last three games, and he’s reached at least 290 yards passing in each of those contests. He’s riding a four-game streak of tossing multiple touchdown passes, and he’s thrown multiple touchdowns or bested 300 yards passing in six straight games. Roethlisberger’s home/road splits that favor playing at home are well documented, and he’s at home this week. At first blush, the matchup may look tough. The Ravens have held quarterbacks to the second-fewest FanDuel points per game, according to Pro-Football-Reference. However, Baltimore’s secondary was dealt a major blow with the season-ending injury to Jimmy Smith. The Steelers are 5-point favorites with an implied team over/under total of 24.25 points, per Pinnacle.
Alvin Kamara (NO): $9,200 @ Falcons
Kamara’s the second-highest priced player on the slate, and he’s $400 more than Le’Veon Bell. Having said that, the salary won’t cause enough sticker shock to dissuade gamers from making Kamara a chalky play, nor should it. The rookie back has posted 22 FanDuel points or more in five straight contests, and he’s eclipsed 100 yards from scrimmage with at least five catches, and at least one touchdown in each of those games. During that five-game stretch, Kamara’s averaging 8.8 carries, 72.6 rushing yards, 5.6 receptions, 71.4 receiving yards, and 1.6 touchdowns per game. He’s part of the game with the highest over/under total (53 points) of the week, and as one-point favorites, the Saints have an implied team over/under total of a robust 27 points. Kamara’s also the back in the Saints’ two-headed backfield attack best suited to rip the Falcons. Atlanta has allowed the second most targets (103), most receptions (80), seventh most receiving yards (596), and is tied for the third most receiving touchdowns (four) allowed to running backs this season, according to Pro-Football-Reference.
Lamar Miller (HOU): $6,600 vs. 49ers
Miller has been treated as a workhorse much of the year, and that’s been especially true the last three weeks. Over his last three games, Miller’s averaged 18 carries and three receptions per game. He’s turned his 21 touches per game into a ho-hum 78.3 yards from scrimmage per game, but he’s scored a pair of touchdowns, and he has a dreamy matchup this week. The visiting 49ers have allowed the third most FanDuel points per game to running backs this year, and Houston’s 3-point spread favoring them at home benefits Miller, too.
Antonio Brown (PIT): $9,000 vs. Ravens
Brown’s always a great standalone play, and he’s the obvious stack partner with Big Ben. He’s also the primary beneficiary from Smith’s injury. Sure, Brown’s matchup proof, but facing a weaker matchup is still preferred to the alternative. AB has bested 100 yards receiving while scoring at least one touchdown in three straight games, and he leads the NFL in receptions (88), receiving yards (1,296), receiving yards per game (108.0), and is tied for the lead in touchdown receptions (nine). Brown holds an almost unbelievable 17.7 receiving yards per game edge over the next closest player.
Josh Gordon (CLE): $6,700 vs. Packers
Even Gordon’s most optimistic fans had to come away impressed with his showing last week. In his first regular season game since December of 2014, Gordon was targeted 11 times and caught four balls for 85 yards against the supremely talented secondary of the Chargers. In his second game back, Gordon has a much softer assignment against the Packers. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks Green Bay 29th defending No. 1 receivers. Furthermore, the Packers have coughed up the fourth most FanDuel points per game to receivers. Gordon’s salary lags behind his upside still, and while he won’t be slept on by gamers, I’ll gladly gobble up his upside at a still discounted salary.
Kenny Golladay (DET): $5,100 @ Buccaneers
I promised a wrinkle in the intro, and here he is. If you want to separate from the pack in GPPs, you need to roster a high-ceiling, low-owned player. Golladay’s behind Golden Tate and Marvin Jones Jr. in the pecking order for looks among Detroit’s wideouts, but there’s a lot to like here. For starters, the rookie’s playing time has sharply trended upward since returning from injury in Week 10. He’s set new highs in percentage of offensive snaps played in back-to-back weeks at 68% and 76% in Week 12 and Week 13, respectively. The big-play receiver has averaged 21.2 yards per reception, and he’s rattled off a 30-plus yard reception in four straight games. Golladay’s ability to rip off huge gains meshes nicely with Tampa Bay’s susceptibility to big passes. The Buccaneers are tied for the fifth most 20-plus yard passes allowed (43) this year, per NFL.com. They’re also tied for the third most 40-plus yard passes allowed. FO ranks the Buccaneers 31st defending the pass. Interestingly, FO ranks the Buccaneers in the middle of the pack defending No. 1 receivers (16th) and No. 2 receivers (18th), but they’ve been most beatable by “Other” receivers ranking just 29th defending them. The Bucs have allowed the most FanDuel points per game to receivers, and Golladay is Detroit’s wideout in this drool-inducing matchup who could slip through the cracks.
Hunter Henry (LAC): $5,600 vs. Redskins
Henry has turned in back-to-back games of solid production with lines of 5-76-1 and 7-81-0 in Week 12 and Week 13, respectively. The sophomore tight end has mixed in clunkers this year, too, but he’s cleared 70 yards receiving or scored a touchdown in seven games. That’s not too shabby. He has a great matchup this weekend. FO ranks the Redskins 20th defending tight ends. Washington has allowed the fifth most FanDuel points per game to tight ends.
Greg Zuerlein (LAR): $5,200 vs. Eagles
Zuerlein leads the NFL in field-goal attempts (38) and made field goals (36), and he’s tied for second in point-after attempts (36) and successful point-after attempts (35). He’s also demonstrated why he earned the nickname Greg the Leg converting six of seven 50-plus yard field-goal attempts, ranking third in makes. The Rams have an implied team over/under total of 25.75 points, and they’re favored by 2.5 points.
Bengals (CIN): $4,600 vs. Bears
The Bengals defense is having a stellar season. They rank tied for 10th in scoring defense (19.8 points per game), tied for third in yards allowed per play (4.9), and tied for fifth in sacks (34). Cincinnati is a 6-point favorite against the visiting Bears. Chicago has an implied team over/under total of just 15.75 points, and the spread sets up favorably for the Bengals to pile up sacks. The Bears offense is tied for the 13th most sacks allowed (29), has the eighth most turnovers (19), and is 30th in scoring offense (15.9 points per game).