It’s already Week 14, which means some of you have officially missed the playoffs in your league(s) and are turning to daily fantasy sports instead. Welcome. Value Plays are like the glue of a good DFS lineup; they give you the extra salary to jam in the stud players you want. Sometimes you have to take good values at whatever position you can. This week, we’ve got solid value at all positions, which gives us the luxury of choosing where we want to save. (Statistics via Pro-Football-Reference).
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Quarterback
DeShone Kizer (CLE): $6,400 vs. GB
So far, Kizer has not been a good starting NFL quarterback. However, he has been a pretty decent fantasy quarterback. He’s turned in some awful fantasy performances, too, but he has at least 14 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He’s barely over the minimum salary for quarterbacks, so we don’t need a monster game for him to be worthwhile. But that doesn’t mean he’s incapable of giving us one. While his passing has left much to be desired, he’s been effective on the ground. He’s racked up 326 yards and five touchdowns on the ground with an average of 5.2 yards per carry. This rushing gives him a floor that is nearly guaranteed. He has no fewer than five carries in every game except Week 7, when Cody Kessler played most of the second half. If he turns those carries into a touchdown, he’ll smash value for his salary. It doesn’t hurt that Josh Gordon is back in action. They weren’t quite on the same page last game (against a tough secondary) but should find more success against the Packers.
The Packers defense hasn’t fared well against the pass all season. They may only be 14th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, but that number seems a bit skewed when they’ve allowed the seventh-most passing yards and a 68.5% completion rate (second-highest). They’ve let quarterbacks run all over them, too, in the small, 16-carry sample we have (adjusted to remove kneel downs, etc). They’ve given up 143 yards at a rate of 8.9 yards/carry. It’s a great setup for Kizer.
Running Back
Lamar Miller (HOU): $6,600 @ SF
For some reason, Lamar Miller has hung around below $7,000 for most of the season. He’s averaging 19 touches per game (16 carries, 3 targets) for the season. The biggest thing holding him back is the overall ineptness of the Texans offense. He’s still put up at least 10 fantasy points in five of his last six games, with the potential for a lot more. The 49ers have been awful against running backs this year, allowing the third-most fantasy points. Alfred Blue, Miller’s direct backup, is doubtful for Sunday’s game. Andre Ellington is far less of a threat to take away carries, so Miller could see an extra couple of rush attempts. Our Value Play tool has him ranked fourth, but I think that’s a bit conservative.
Frank Gore (IND): $5,500 @ BUF
The Ageless One, also known as Frank Gore, has been in the league so long that when he made his debut, the top song in the country was “Gold Digger” by Kanye West. Now in his 12th season, Gore is still a quality runner and the lead back for the Colts. Despite giving up snaps to rookie Marlon Mack, Gore dominates the backfield touches. Over his last four games, that’s meant 22, 18, 22, and 13 touches. The Bills run defense has been largely non-existent. They’ve allowed the most fantasy points to running backs and have shown no signs of improvement. Gore’s salary is a bargain for that many touches against a bad defense.
Wide Receiver
Trent Taylor (SF): $4,500 and Marquise Goodwin (SF): $5,700 vs. HOU
These two are fairly similar players, both in real life and fantasy. Trent Taylor is 5’8″, 181 lbs and Marquise Goodwin is 5’9″, 183 lbs. Goodwin has a couple of advantages. He’s the better athlete of the two and much faster. He’s also got a much more established role in the offense, getting six or more targets in seven games this year. Taylor, by contrast, has been hanging around the edge of relevance, but inconsistently. He saw 10 targets in one game and five targets twice, but with plenty of games of three or fewer targets in between. The 49ers are down to Goodwin, Taylor, and Louis Murphy (who I cannot believe is still in the league) at wide receiver. In the first game with Jimmy Garoppolo starting, Goodwin was targeted eight times, while Taylor and Murphy received six each.
Against the Texans, Louis Murphy is likely to draw most of Johnathan Joseph’s coverage, which is bad for Murphy but good for Taylor and Goodwin. They’ll see mostly Kevin Johnson and Kareem Jackson, who have been the softer spots in the secondary. Goodwin takes the top spot in our Value Tool, but I think Taylor offers an even better, if riskier, value.
Zay Jones (BUF): $4,500 vs. IND
The results have been inconsistent for Zay Jones, but he’s commanded a healthy target share for most of the season. In his last six games played, he’s averaged 7.5 targets per game. Playing Jones is only viable if Tyrod Taylor starts. I’m not putting anything in Nathan Peterman‘s hands. But Tyrod Taylor avoided serious injury to his leg and has practiced in a limited fashion this week. He’s questionable, but I believe he will start. It’s a great spot for Zay if he does. The Colts have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Their defense has been abused left and right this year. They’ve allowed the most passing yards of any team. Every week I check, and every week the Colts have allowed the most points of any team (now 330). Minimum salary is far too cheap for the target volume Jones is getting.
Tight End
Ricky Seals-Jones (ARI): $4,500 vs. TEN
Don’t feel bad if you don’t know who Ricky Seals-Jones is. He’s a first-year player out of Texas A&M who converted from wide receiver to tight end, the opposite of what we usually see from players out of a spread offense. If you watch his college tape, you’ll see a big, physical pass-catcher who specializes in making the tough, contested catches. And he is big – 6’5″ and 243 lbs. He’s had to work his way up the depth chart in Arizona, but since he started getting playing time three games ago he’s caught nine balls on 16 targets for 170 yards and three touchdowns. He’s averaged 5.3 targets per game and seems to have a good rapport with Blaine Gabbert.
Kicker
Harrison Butker (KC): $4,800 vs. OAK
I don’t know what to say about the Chiefs anymore. Their offense came alive in the last game, but they still managed to lose. It’s been a rough slide, but Harrison Butker has been one of the more consistent spots. The Chiefs are expected to score against the sad Raiders defense that has only managed one interception this season. They put up 30 points in their first meeting with the Raiders (but lost). Butker nailed three field goals and three extra points in that game. The Raiders are tied for the second-most fantasy points allowed to kickers. Butker comes in at the top of our Value Play tool.
D/ST
New York Jets D/ST: $4,500 @ DEN
The Broncos have done nothing on offense all year long. They’ve got at least two decent running backs in CJ Anderson and Devontae Booker, but they haven’t been able to carry the offense. Out of their three options, they’ve been unable to find a decent starter at quarterback. They started with Trevor Siemian and they have returned to Trevor Siemian. And despite his abomination of a game against the Dolphins, in which he threw three interceptions, they’re sticking with Trevor Siemian. I suppose that’s still better than going back to Brock Osweiler. The Broncos give up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Siemian is a big part of that. He’s thrown at least one interception in seven of eight starts, with only the Raiders failing to snag one. He’s also got two three-interception games and two more two-interception games under his belt, along with five fumbles. Siemian is a defensive score waiting to happen.
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Steve Repsold is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Steve, follow him @SteveRepsold.
