I don’t think we’ve had a single week all year without some devastating injury. Not even just devastating injuries, but fantasy-relevant devastating injuries. I can’t remember another year like it, especially with the attrition to quarterbacks. We lost another good one last week with Carson Wentz tearing an ACL. He actually returned to the game for one play after tearing it… and threw a touchdown pass. What a season.
The only consolation is that it keeps a lot of value open for us in DFS. Not only do we have a lot of value this week, but we have a lot of safe value. There are always extremely risky values available. It’s not every week that you get the kind of near-guaranteed touches that many players below are projected to get at bargain-basement salaries. Dig in, because the season’s almost over.
(Statistics via ProFootball Reference)
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Quarterback
Nick Foles (PHI): $6,000 @ NYG
It’s a sad thing for every football fan that Carson Wentz is done for the season. Well, maybe not fans of rival NFC East teams. But everyone else will miss the inspired way he was playing the game. Nick Foles is not going to step in and replicate any part of that, but he’s a minimum salary quarterback against a terrible defense. In fact, the beleaguered Giants defense has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. It’s no surprise to find him at the top of our Value Play tool.
Foles, for his part, isn’t all that bad. He’s mediocre, with flashes of brilliance and complete collapses. He channeled some magic for most of a season during his first stay in Philadelphia, and it’s possible he could find some of that again, but it’s more likely he’s the 60.5% completion rate quarterback we’ve seen over his career. Uninspiring but capable. Wentz, for reference, completed only 60.2% of his passes, but that’s the only stat where he’s comparable to Foles. With the strong supporting cast including Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz, Foles should turn in a respectable game that will be a great value for $6,000.
Running Back
Kenyan Drake (MIA): $6,500 @ BUF
I won’t lie: as a Dolphins fan, I’m worried about Kenyan Drake being a bust this week. Why? Because the spot is too perfect and I’m badly scarred by many occasions of the Dolphins dropping the ball (sometimes literally) in perfect spots. But my biased fears aren’t relevant in fantasy and when I put them aside, Drake jumps off the page. Despite facing the Bills, who have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs, Drake’s salary has decreased from last week. He’s the most undervalued running back in our rankings.
The Dolphins have finally discovered that they have an electric player in Drake, and he’s gotten massive usage over the past two weeks, averaging 29.5 touches. I don’t know how sustainable that is, but if there is a week for them to keep it up, it’s this one against the broken-turnstile defense of the Bills. Drake has turned those 59 touches into 234 rushing and 100 receiving yards. It’s an ideal matchup for a hot player – as long as Jay Cutler and the Dolphins don’t mess it up.
Mike Davis (SEA): $5,800 vs. LAR
Another guy that has only become relevant in the past couple weeks is Mike Davis. He had a handful of promising carries earlier in the season, promptly got injured, and returned two weeks ago. Since then he’s turned 20 and 17 touches into 12 and 7 FanDuel points, respectively. They’re not great numbers, but he hasn’t found the end zone in either game. That’s not a bad range to have as a floor for a guy below $6,000. The Rams might show him the way to the end zone. They’ve allowed 12 rushing scores, tied for sixth-most. Their 4.69 yards allowed per rush attempt is the third-highest mark. That’s all added up to the second-most fantasy points allowed. It’s a dirt-cheap salary for a back who should dominate the carries against a bad run defense.
Wide Receiver
Dede Westbrook (JAC): $5,700 vs. HOU
Dede Westbrook started fast and hasn’t stopped. He first played four games ago and since then has averaged 8.25 targets per game. It hasn’t taken him long at all to become one of Blake Bortles‘ favorite targets. Bortles, for that matter, has been playing better, and I think Westbrook is a part of that, too. Losing Allen Robinson for the season and Allen Hurns for many games has held back an already-struggling Jaguars passing game, but Dede brings some of that explosiveness back and provides a counterpart to Marqise Lee. He’s facing a Texans defense that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers after being repeatedly torched. Bortles is going to pepper him with targets. This defense is unlikely to impede him. At $5,700, he’s the top play in our Value Play tool.
Ted Ginn (NOS): $5,400 vs. NYJ
Immediately following Dede Westbrook in the Value Play tool is Ted Ginn. I’m surprised his salary has fallen so low. He has been a ghost the past two games, but I suspect that had something to do with the rib injury he’s been nursing. He returned to a full practice on Thursday after taking Wednesday off and seems fully healthy. Let’s not forget that immediately prior to his two-game downswing, he saw 11 targets from Drew Brees. He’s had six games with at least five targets. The biggest thing holding back his fantasy performances is the lack of touchdowns. Alvin Kamara is expected to play, but if the dynamic rookie should miss the game Sunday, Ginn’s role would likely increase. The Jets have somewhat-quietly allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Ted Ginn’s highly-depressed salary opens up a lot at other positions, and he still has the potential for a huge game.
Tight End
David Njoku (CLE): $4,800 vs. BAL
With a salary lower than several kickers, David Njoku makes for an interesting, possibly exciting, but very risky punt at tight end. The athletic rookie out of the University of Miami has had a couple of breakout games and a lot of disappointing performances. Hey, it’s the Cleveland Browns. Disappointing performances are the norm, so being able to put together a few good games hints at the kid’s talent. The future is bright for the 21-year-old, perhaps even as soon as this Sunday against the Ravens. They’ve struggled against tight ends, allowing the tenth-most fantasy points, especially when compared to their imposing rank of 28th against wide receivers. The past two weeks the Ravens have really fallen apart in the middle, allowing 43 total FanDuel points to tight ends against the Lions and Steelers. The Browns are going to need to throw it. Even with Josh Gordon, even with the Ravens missing elite cornerback Jimmy Smith, it’s going to be hard to complete the ball outside. I think Njoku will see more than his average of four targets and has a great chance to produce.
Kicker
Robbie Gould (SF): $4,500 vs. TEN
The 49ers offense has a little bit of life in it with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm and Robbie Gould has benefited. He’s nailed nine field goals over the last two games. He hit a 52-yard kick last week, tying his season long. Yet he’s still at the minimum salary for a kicker. Tennessee’s defense has tightened up a little lately, but it has resulted in more field goals. They’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points to kickers for the season. Gould is the second-most undervalued kicker in our tool.
D/ST
New Orleans Saints D/ST: $4,600 vs. NYJ
Josh McCown was having quite a season for the Jets, with several impressive fantasy performances along the way. Now they’re down to Bryce Petty, who has yet to prove that he’s good at football. His career numbers certainly suggest he is not. He’s managed a pathetic 54.2% completion rate and an even-worse 3:7 TD:INT ratio. His career net yards per attempt (NY/A), which adjusts for sack yardage lost, is only 4.8. It would be a solid number… if we were talking about rush attempts. The Saints defense has been a standout surprise all season long, after getting thrashed for the past several years. Their salary would have been a bargain against McCown. Against Petty, it’s theft.
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Steve Repsold is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Steve, follow him @SteveRepsold.
